Newspoll: Hung parliament in the cards as Coalition rises and Labor falls

Labor and the Coalition are neck and neck for the first time in two years – sparking theories of a minority government at the next election.

If the general election were held today and the current results of the latest Newspoll conducted by The Australian were distributed, Labor would lose enough seats to tip into minority government.

According to the poll, Labor’s primary vote has fallen to 32 per cent as the federal government takes a battering over ongoing cost of living and inflationary pressure.

Meanwhile, the Coalition has increased its primary vote lead by seven points - the ­widest margin between the two major parties since the voice referendum loss.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese speaks at the Styles Street Children's Community Long Day Care Centre in Leichhardt. Picture: NewsWire / John Appleyard

The poll shows the political contest tightening as Labor and the Coalition are each at 50-50 on a two party-preferred basis.

If this result occurred at a general election the result would likely be a hung parliament as according to the poll, a majority of voters (57 per cent) believe a minority Labor or minority Coalition government is the most likely outcome.

A third of voters expect a minority Labor government formed with minor parties or independents, with 24 per cent nominating a minority Coalition government.

Federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton doorstop in Darwin after a roundtable to discuss crime in the NT. Picture: Pema Tamang Pakhrin

Only 22 per cent of voters expect Labor would receive enough votes to retain majority government while only 21 per cent believe the ­Coalition would be in a position to form a majority government.

The Coalition’s primary vote is up one point to 39 per cent.

Labor’s support is down one point - despite the government’s income tax cuts and ­energy bill relief, and the announcement of a 15 per cent wage rise for childcare workers.

Support for Labor is now below its May 2022 election result.

The latest poll comes as the Reserve Bank of Australia signalled little chance of a rate cut as inflation remains rampant, and the government pushed back on the RBA’s assessment that federal spending was contributing to the problem.

Voter satisfaction with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton remains in negative territory.

Mr Albanese’s approval rating has dropped a point to 43 per cent.

Mr Dutton’s satisfaction rating also fell a point to 40 per cent.

But Mr Albanese’s disapproval score remains slightly higher than Mr Dutton’s at 51 compared with 50 per cent.

In the head-to-head contest, voters remain unchanged with Mr Albanese leading Mr Dutton by 46 per cent to 39 per cent - the narrowest gap since the last election.

Originally published as Newspoll: Hung parliament in the cards as Coalition rises and Labor falls