Young women ‘leading the way’ as new poll puts Voice ahead in SA

South Australia is the must-win state where the PM will launch the official campaign for the Voice to Parliament today – as polling reveals which way SA is leaning.

The yes vote for the Voice has nudged ahead in South Australia with 52 per cent of people backing the referendum in the must-win state where Anthony Albanese will launch the official campaign on Wednesday.

It can exclusively be revealed a survey of 605 people – considered representative of the state – commissioned by the Australia Institute in the first week of August, found 43 per cent of South Australians supported the Voice, while 39 per cent said they planned to vote no.

About 18 per cent said they were undecided, but when asked which way they were leaning those voters split exactly in the middle to deliver Yes a narrow 52-48 lead.

The result is the first sign efforts to turn the campaign around on the ground may be having an impact, with previous polls showing the no vote ahead in SA.

According to the poll, two in three South Australian Labor voters were inclined to vote yes, while three in five South Australian Coalition voters were inclined to vote no.

Indigenous leader Noel Pearson, Aboriginal Affairs Minister Kyam Maher and movie director Rachel Perkins have been campaigning in South Australia, where the ‘yes’ vote has pulled ahead of ‘no’. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Naomi Jellicoe

Young women are the biggest supporters of the Voice in South Australia, with the state now polling at 52 per cent ‘yes’ and 48 per cent ‘no’. Picture: Emma Brasier

A stark difference in preference emerged depending on age, with 81 per cent of people aged 18 to 29 were either a hard or soft yes, while two in three people aged 60 or over were leaning or decided on no.

About 63 per cent of South Australians aged between 40 and 59 were leaning toward yes, while those aged between 40 and 59 were evenly split between yes and no.

SA Senator Sarah Hanson-Young says the close poll means as ‘yes’ result can’t be taken for granted. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Women were more likely to support the Voice, with 56 per cent inclined to vote yes, while men were the opposite with 52 per cent leaning toward no.

The poll results were weighted by age and gender, with a margin of error of four per cent, meaning the race in South Australia could be even closer or with the no just ahead.

Australia Institute South Australian director Noah Schultz-Byard said young women were “leading the way” in terms of Voice support in the state.

“If young South Australians want the referendum to succeed, it’s clear that they need to talk to their parents and grandparents about why they so strongly support the yes vote,” he said.

Mr Schultz-Byard said political division was “clearly having an impact” on the South Australian vote, with the majority of Labor and Greens supporters behind the Voice and the majority of Coalition and One Nation supporters against it.

“As the only jurisdiction with a legislated First Nations Voice to Parliament, and as a potential swing state, South Australia will likely be one of the key battlegrounds ahead of the upcoming referendum,” he said.

Greens South Australian Senator Sarah Hanson-Young said the state was “make or break” in the referendum, with the narrow lead in the new poll proof the vote “can’t be taken for granted”.

“SA was the first state to give women the vote and now we can take Australia forward again,” she said.

Not a third layer of democracy

The Prime Minister said enshrining a First Nations Voice to parliament in the constitution would have the opposite effect of having another layer of bureaucracy.

In Adelaide on Tuesday, ahead of Wednesday’s official launch for the yes campaign, Mr Albanese said a Voice would instead improve the delivery of services for Indigenous Australians.

“This is the reverse of that. This is about listening to local communities and having them heard in Canberra, as opposed to bureaucracies in Canberra having a voice to local communities,” he told The Advertiser.

“That‘s why it’s such an important part of reform.”

Noel Pearson with supporters in Light Square where 20+ SA organisations are announcing support for the Yes campaign. NCA NewsWire / David Mariuz

Mr Albanese said a successful referendum would also mean the onus was put on First Nations people to develop, drive and deliver better outcomes across the communities around the country.

“It also will mean that Indigenous Australians will have more responsibility for those outcomes as well if they are part of the process of having that input and being able to be listened to,” he said.

“This is such a clear and simple proposition and when people look at what is before the Australian people, recognition and listening in order to get better outcomes, that is what people will be asked to vote yes for.

“It‘s so straightforward in recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the first peoples of Australia.”

A referendum date will be announced by Mr Albanese on Wednesday in the northern Adelaide suburbs, where a rally is expected to be attended in Elizabeth by hundreds of Yes supporters.

It is widely expected October 14 will be the date and has already been given the tick of approval from the governor-general.

Mr Albanese said the Voice was a “simple” proposal and said the no campaign had blurred the message about what it is.

He said it would recognise Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution through a Voice, and “what it will do, is the Voice may make representations” on matters affecting or relating to Indigenous Australians.

SA is one of three states, including Tasmania and Western Australia that will be heavily targeted in the campaign over the next six weeks because of their importance in the overall outcome.

Originally published as Young women ‘leading the way’ as new poll puts Voice ahead in SA