Why Australia must debate becoming a republic in 2018

ANALYSIS: IS Australia ready to become a republic? This is why it’s set to be the next major debate after same-sex marriage either way.

A MAJOR debate on whether Australia should become a republic is coming within the next year or two whether the nation is ready or not.

It’s set to be the next big question Aussies are called to vote on after the historic but gruelling same-sex marriage postal survey.

And, if Australians say Yes, a transition to a republic could occur within four years.

It’s also likely to cost significantly less than the $2.5 billion estimated by the monarchist movement in 2006.

Malcolm Turnbull reignited the debate yesterday by suggesting a postal survey or a plebiscite could be used to decide whether Australians wanted to become a republic and how they wanted an Australian Head of State to be elected.

Malcolm Turnbull has reignited the debate by suggesting a postal survey or a plebiscite could be used to decide whether Australians wanted to become a republic. Picture: Jenny Evans

Labor has dubbed it a “thought bubble” but it’s the first time Mr Turnbull has outlined a way forward on the issue since becoming Prime Minister.

Since taking on the top job, the former leader of the Australian republic movement has said he would not bring on the issue until after Queen Elizabeth II’s reign.

That could put the republic on the agenda any time in the next decade, particularly if the Queen is as long-lived as her mother, who died in 2002 at age 101.

Opposition leader Bill Shorten intends to bring the issue to a head much sooner.

In July, he announced his intention to hold a plebiscite on the republic within his first term if Labor is elected at the next federal election.

The party has already set the question: “Do you support an Australian republic with an Australian head of state?”

Prince Charles and Camilla, Duchess of Cornwall at her 70th birthday party. Picture: Clarence House/ Hugo Burnand

Prince William and Catherine, Duchess of Cambridge. Picture: Kensington Palace/ Chris Jackson

Mr Shorten has also taken the significant step of appointing a member of the shadow cabinet to specifically deal with the republic issue.

In October, he announced Matt Thistlethwaite would be the first Shadow Assistant Minister for an Australian Head of State.

Mr Thistlethwaite told News Corp at the time Labor supported the Australian Republic Movement’s proposed timeline of an initial plebiscite in 2020 and a referendum by 2022.

A referendum must be held as a requirement for changing the Australian constitution.

ARM National Director Michael Cooney told News Corp the movement would welcome either a postal survey or a plebiscite to decide the initial questions of whether the nation wanted a republic and how a Head of State should be elected.

A postal survey would cost less but a compulsory plebiscite would be more comprehensive, Mr Cooney said.

“We don’t have a preference either way,” he said.

But the movement does not think cost should be a deciding factor in whether the Australian Government puts the question of a republic to a vote.

“It’s penny pinching to think giving Australian’s our own voice isn’t a cost we can afford,” he said.

ARM has also previously dismissed estimates by prominent monarchist David Flint that Australia’s transition to a republic could cost about $2.5 billion.

Royal fever has reignited with Prince Harry’s engagement to American actor Meghan Markle. Picture: Chris Jackson/Getty Images

Professor Flint’s estimate includes costs for two federal plebiscites, a federal referendum, state and territory plebiscites to deal with the question of state governors, campaign funds for each of the votes, a plebiscite on a new flag, presidential elections, gubernatorial elections and various other costs including a new currency, changes to institutions with “Royal” in their name and salaries of new officials.

Mr Cooney said costs for changing the nation’s currency would be minimal as new coins and bank notes were minted and printed every year.

Old coins and notes would likely be phased out over time.

Mr Cooney said ARM had no position on changing the flag.

The movement has previously said it would not be necessary to become a republic.

It also estimated in 2010 that the cost of a plebiscite and referendum, plus “rebranding”, would be about $250 million.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has vowed to hold a plebiscite in his first term if elected. Picture: Gary Ramage

That figure also includes referendums in WA and Queensland where the states would vote on the question of their governors.

Mr Cooney told News Corp Australia should not wait until after the Queen’s reign to vote on becoming a republic.

Ultimately the nation had the choice between its next head of state being King Charles or an Australian, he said.