Support plummeting in Labor’s heartland as the Coalition gains ground in the suburbs

It’s a different story for Opposition leader Peter Dutton, with a new poll showing just how much the Coalition’s primary support in the suburbs is climbing.

Labor’s support in the outer suburbs is plummeting as the party’s “wine and cheeseboard” inner city faction continues to alienate its traditional base, with “soft” disaffected voters increasingly up for grabs for the Coalition and minor parties.

A new survey conducted by Redbridge shows the Coalition narrowly leads Labor by about 51.5 – 48.5 on a two party preferred basis, with primary support for the Albanese Government among outer suburban voters sinking to 27 per cent – a drop of five points in just three months.

Opposition leader Peter Dutton has picked up almost all of these voters, with the Coalition’s primary support in the suburbs climbing from 40 per cent in November to 46 per cent in February.

The latest survey of 1013 Australian voters conducted over five days last week found about 49 per cent of supporters for Anthony Albanese’s government are still potentially persuadable, compared to about 39 per cent of the Coalition’s voters being “soft” or only “leaning,” giving both the Prime Minister and Mr Dutton opportunities to gain ground during the campaign.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton holds a press conference at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Labor’s support among inner metro parts of Australia was strong with a 39 per cent primary and 54-46 split on two party preferred, while the reverse trend appeared in the outer suburbs where the Coalition lead 55-45.

Redbridge director Tony Barry said Labor still had a “good electoral map” that “complicates the pathway to the Lodge” for Mr Dutton.

“But what is clear from these numbers is that Labor’s ‘wine and cheeseboard’ faction are effectively tearing the party away from its outer suburban base and the Liberal Party has an opportunity to connect with this cohort with a stronger personal economic narrative,” he said.

“The other big risk for Albanese is Victoria where the bottom is falling out of Labor’s vote.”

On Saturday Victorian Labor suffered a major blow with a primary swing of more than 15 per cent against the party in a by-election in the seat of Werribee, which covers its traditional heartland of Melbourne’s west.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, pictured in Sydney on Saturday attending the 2025 Fairfield Tet Festival. Picture: NewsWire / Monique Harmer

Redbridge Group director Kos Samaras said heading into the election Labor’s “most stable vote” appeared to be people with high incomes who live in the inner suburbs of large cities.

“Labor is vulnerable in the outer suburbs, but Peter Dutton will need to gain a lot more ground here to have any chance of winning,” he said.

The survey found if an election was held now Labor would secure about a 31 per cent primary, the Coalition would be 40 per cent, Greens 11 per cent and 18 per cent of voters would vote for other candidates.

Mr Albanese can call an election any time between now and May 17, and while April 12 has emerged as a favoured date to avoid a budget scheduled for March, there is no indication the PM has decided on this path.

Both major parties will focus on cost of living during the campaign, with the Redbridge poll finding that among Australians who consider themselves experiencing a “great deal of stress” financially, support was stronger for Labor by 52-48 compared to the Coalition, with those suffering “some stress” were evenly split between the two major parties.

Kos Samaras is a former Labor Party strategist who now fronts influential lobbying firm Redbridge. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Aaron Francis

The Albanese Government has the approval of wealthier Australians earning $2000 or more a week, as well as those on less than $1000 a week, while Mr Dutton’s Coalition is the favoured option among people earning between $1000 and $1999 a week.

Australians who own a home outright favour the Coalition by a whopping 61-39 on two party preferred, while mortgage holders are fairly evenly split breaking to Mr Dutton by just 51-49.

Renters are by far the most disillusioned with the major parties, with a combined 39 per cent backing either the Greens, other minors or independents, though on two-party preferred support flows back strongly to Labor.

Dr Shaun Ratcliff from Accent Research said on a two-party basis Labor has retained support in some of its “traditional” constituencies, like younger voters and renters.

“However, Labor appears to have completely lost its advantage among voters with religions other than Protestant and Catholic Christianity,” he said.

“This is a trend that emerged in 2024 during the conflict in Gaza and is beginning to look entrenched.”

Originally published as Support plummeting in Labor’s heartland as the Coalition gains ground in the suburbs