Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and the Greens both stand to benefit from the citizenship fiasco
THE Coalition and even the Greens could potentially pick up more seats if more MPs are deemed ineligible to sit in parliament, triggering by-elections across the country.
National
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MALCOLM Turnbull and the Greens both stand to benefit from the worsening citizenship fiasco if nine MPs with questions over their eligibility are referred to the High Court.
The embattled Prime Minister has a strong likelihood of picking up three seats out of a potential Super Saturday of by-elections early next year.
It will strengthen Mr Turnbull’s precarious position in the lower house, where he holds a one-seat majority only if Liberal MP John Alexander is re-elected at the Bennelong by-election on December 16.
Labor has named nine federal politicians today that it wants to send to the High Court in a bid to end the citizenship circus.
That includes four of its own — Josh Wilson, Susan Lamb, David Feeney and Justine Keay — to the High Court this afternoon, along with crossbencher Rebekha Sharkie and Liberal MPs Nola Marino, Julia Banks, Jason Falinski and Alex Hawke.
Labor senator Katy Gallagher will also head to the High Court but, as a senator, she will simply lose her seat if found ineligible rather than being forced to contest a by-election.
WHY THE PM STANDS TO GAIN
If the nine are sent to the High Court, both the Liberal Party and the Greens could benefit from a series of by-elections triggered by any MPs being ruled ineligible.
The Greens could potentially claim Mr Feeney’s Victorian electorate of Batman.
Feeney received fewer first preference votes than Greens candidate Alex Bhathal at the 2016 election but claimed a narrow victory of just 1853 votes thanks to preferences.
The Liberal party could potentially gain from by-elections in the Tasmanian seat of Braddon, the South Australian seat of Mayo, and the Queensland seat of Longman which would strengthen Mr Turnbull’s precarious one-seat majority in the House of Representatives.
Braddon is traditionally considered a marginal Liberal seat.
Ms Keay scraped through to victory in 2016 by 2846 votes thanks to preferences but actually received fewer first preference votes than the Liberal candidate.
Longman and Mayo, usually considered very safe Liberal seats, are even better chances for the Liberals.
Ms Lamb only claimed victory in 2016 against Liberal Wyatt Roy by just 1.6 per cent of the votes or 1390 votes after preferences.
NXT MP Rebekha Sharkie claimed a surprise win in Mayo — a very safe Liberal seat by a margin of 12.5 per cent — against Liberal MP Jamie Briggs, who had been embroiled in a scandal over an incident in Hong Kong involving a female public servant.
Fremantle, considered a marginal Labor seat at 5.4 per cent, would likely remain with Labor but the Greens or Liberals have a shot if they punt in a star candidate.
Labor insists there is no need to refer its MPs, apart from Mr Feeney, to even test their cases in the Court of Disputed Returns because the party has legal advice they will be fine given they took “all reasonable steps” necessary to renounce their citizenship.
The government is likely to refer the Labor MPs regardless, triggering a series of by-elections in March.
LIBERAL MPS IN DOUBT
Labor has demanded Liberal MPs Jason Falinski, Nola Marino, Alex Hawke and Julia Banks provide further documents to clarify their citizenship status.
If they cannot, the party believes they should also be sent to the High Court.
By-elections in three of their seats — Mackellar, Forrest and Mitchell — would not cause an upset for the Turnbull Government.
All three are safe Liberal seats with margins of 15.74 per cent, 12.56 per cent and 17.82 per cent respectively.
But Labor could have a chance to pick up a seat in Ms Banks’ electorate of Chisholm, which is held by a narrow margin of 1.24 per cent.
SHOWDOWN
Labor frontbencher Tony Burke has warned the government not to use its numbers to refer Labor MPs to the High Court.
He said Ms Keay and Ms Lamb could not have taken any further steps to renounce their citizenship.
“We can’t have a situation where the onus ... is on the candidate to complete all their reasonable steps but the decision about whether or not they’re eligible is driven by a junior public servant in Great Britain,” he told ABC radio.
Attorney-General George Brandis dismissed that argument as “utter rubbish”, accusing Labor of throwing up a smokescreen around its MPs.
He called on Opposition leader Bill Shorten to “do the right thing” and refer his MPs.
“It doesn’t have to be a showdown if Mr Shorten does the right thing,” Senator Brandis said.
Ms Keay, whose father was born in the UK, received confirmation she had renounced her citizenship on July 8, 2016, six days after the 2016 federal election.
Ms Lamb, whose father was born in Scotland, filled out her renunciation form on May 24, 2016.
However, on August 10, 2016, the British bureaucracy told her: “We cannot be satisfied from the documents available that you hold British citizenship. The application has therefore been refused.”
Mr Wilson, who was born in London, completed his renunciation form on May 12, 2016.
However, the date of the UK Home Office letter confirming renunciation was June 24, well after the close of nominations for the 2016 election.
— with wires
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