Northern Territory on La Niña watch after chance of forming doubles

THE Northern Territory’s Bureau of Meteorology has warned that the chance of La Niña forming later this year has doubled

Rain clouds roll into Darwin. Picture: Amber Cameron

The Northern Territory’s Bureau of Meteorology has warned that the chance of La Niña forming later this year has doubled.

BoM upgraded our El Nino Southern Oscillation tracker from “inactive” to “La Niña watch” on Wednesday.

Metrologist Nicholas Loveday said if a La Niña did form it was likely to be short lived and nowhere near as strong as the significant La Niña event of 2010-2011 that brought record rainfall to many parts of northern and eastern Australia

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“A La Niña is a climate phenomenon that occurs roughly every three to seven years,” he said.

“On average for a La Niña you will get more rainfall around Australia ... however this wet season the sea surface temperatures in the Indian Oceans and near us will counteract the effect of the La Niña.”

Mr Loveday said every La Niña was different, although typically they form earlier in the year – La Niña tends to have a greater impact on early wet season rainfall rather than later, so if it does form it may not significantly affect overall rainfall this season.

The current rainfall outlook is pointing towards a typical build-up (October-December) with an average of around 150mm of rain per month for Darwin

The average monthly rainfall for Darwin from January to March doubles from the build-up months to 300-400mm per month with the onset of the monsoon and we typically see some rain on two out of every three days.

Last year La Niña-like conditions, coupled with other climate drivers (such as a negative Indian Ocean Dipole) led to a much wetter start to the wet season than usual for the Top End – so far this October, rainfall is tracking close to average.

Originally published as Northern Territory on La Niña watch after chance of forming doubles