Newspoll: Labor suffers falls in key demographics but no boost for Coalition

The latest Newspoll has revealed sizeable swings against Labor in major states with older voters showing support for Peter Dutton.

The Albanese government is seeing an erosion in support among key voter demographics in larger states, according to the latest Newspoll.

Labor’s primary vote has fallen to 30 per cent in NSW, marking a historical low with a swing against the government substantial enough to cost it as many as four seats in the most populous state.

The exclusive Newspoll conducted by The Australian state by state reveals Labor facing pushback from middle-aged voters and multicultural sectors in particular over the last quarter.

Swings against Labor have also begun in Victoria, the second largest state, where the federal Labor primary vote has dipped to a new low of 31 per cent - below the party’s national average in what used to be a stronghold.

On the basis of seats, the poll indicates Labor would lose its majority if an election were held now.

Labor has also lost support in Western Australia, a state instrumental to its 2002 victory, with a potential loss of up to two seats indicated.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is losing support in NSW and Vic. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton finding support among older voters. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Cost-of-living concerns continue to weigh on the major parties with voters in the 50 to 64-year-old demographic leading a four point rebellion against the Labor government in primary vote.

The Coalition rose rwo points in the two-party-preferred lead in this age group from 51-49 per cent to 55-45 per cent since June.

Peter Dutton is ahead of Anthony Albanese for the first time as the preferred prime minister among this demographic.

Among “Middle Australia” or 35-to-49 year-olds, the Coalition has also narrowly moved ahead of Labor on the primary vote for the first time since the last election.

This key demographic, which represents a concentration of mortgage holders, has seen a significant five-point swing towards independents and minor parties, and could decide the outcome of the next election.

Migrant and ethnic communities also delivered Labor a five-point fall in primary vote, with a similar swing towards independent and minor parties.

Labor’s traditional multicultural voter base has not turned on its preferred party like this before, but the Israel/Hamas conflict, along with cost-of-living concerns, may be affecting this demographic’s preferences.

This group also expressed a decline in personal support for PM Anthony Albanese, with a five-point drop in his rating as preferred prime minster.

Labor saw an improvement in one group only: voters aged between 18 and 34 – via a rise in support for minor parties and subsequent preference flows lifting Labor’s two-party-preferred vote to 62-38 per cent.

The splintering of the major party vote in NSW and Victoria has not been seen since 2013, after the Gillard government was forced into a power-sharing arrangement with Greens and independents.

But Labor’s losses are not adding up to gains for the ­Coalition.

In NSW, support has dropped two points to 38 per cent, with a three-point lift for minor parties including the teal independents, a one-point gain for One Nation to 7 per cent and a similar gain for the Greens, which are now on 12 per cent.

Adam Bandt, Australian Greens Leader addresses the National Press Club of Australia in Canberra. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

The contest has also narrowed considerably in Victoria, with Labor’s primary vote falling two points to 31 per cent amid a two-point gain to 38 per cent for the Coalition.

In Victoria, Labor’s two-party-preferred lead rose two points due to a strong Greens vote – to 52-48.

But in NSW, which has the most independent MPs in federal parliament, Labor faces resistance in key western Sydney seats from Muslim parties.

Labor-held seats in NSW that may swing away include Gilmore, Bennelong, Robertson and Paterson.

However, in Western Australia and Queensland, the swing is away from minor parties and independents.

In Queensland, both the Coalition and Labor have gained three points each on their primary vote – 43 per cent and 30 per cent – while One Nation, the Greens and other minor parties all fell, leaving the two-party-­preferred vote unchanged at 54-46 in favour of the LNP.

In WA, Labor gained two points to 36 per cent and the Coalition lifted two points to 39 per cent, with the two-party-preferred vote of 52-48 in favour of Labor remaining unchanged from the last analysis period, although down on its election result.

Labor’s only improvement was in South Australia, where its primary vote is now one point ahead of the Coalition at 36 per cent to 35 per cent.

Originally published as Newspoll: Labor suffers falls in key demographics but no boost for Coalition