Marginal seat of Herbert may swing away from Labor

The Labor Member for Herbert has gone MIA in our live-streamed election debate — so Courier-Mail personality Peter Gleeson has used an appropriately north Queensland stand-in. WATCH THE REPLAY

THE Labor Member for Herbert has gone MIA in our live-streamed election debate — so Courier-Mail personality Peter Gleeson has used an appropriately north Queensland stand-in.

Watch how the debate played out with the remaining candidates above.

Herbert may be LNP’s port in electoral storm

THIRTY-SEVEN votes. That’s all that was in Cathy O’Toole’s victory in Herbert at the last election, making it the most marginal seat in the country.

This time around, when Scott Morrison’s government faces a likely defeat, the Townsville-based electorate offers probably the only hope for the Liberal National Party to pick up an extra seat in Queensland.

The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Herbert, held by Cathy O’Toole

Clive’s not so candid about Herbert

The LNP have preselected former Queensland Young Australian of the Year Phillip Thompson who looks far from a conservative stereotype.

The tattooed and bearded Mr Thompson is a veterans’ advocate who suffered PTSD after being injured by an improvised explosive device in Afghanistan.

The LNP candidate for Herbert Phillip Thompson. Picture: Zak Simmonds

Mr Thompson’s background may endear him to many in the garrison town. But ask him about the issues that will decide the seat and he says water security, border protection and jobs.

Townsville is still recovering from devastating floods and has an entrenched higher unemployment rate.

The promise of a jobs boom held out by Adani’s Carmichael mine is popular in the electorate.

The Adani mine has been a problematic campaign issue for Labor’s Cathy O'Toole.

“We’ve had a huge disaster that has torn through the lives of many,” Mr Thompson said, referring the floods. During the recovery phase we need jobs that will drive development. Adani means jobs.”

The divisive mine is clearly weighing on Ms O’Toole’s mind too.

She recently demanded the state Labor government stop “shifting the goalposts” on the mine and “keep out of North Queensland’s business”.

But Ms O’Toole has at times struggled to articulate a clear position on the mine and recently said “I can’t understand why there is so much fuss” after being pressed on her view.

Ms O’Toole can however point to a successful history of lobbying for major projects.

United Australia Party leader Clive Palmer speaks to the media. File picture

She got in first with support for the Townsville stadium before the last election and has convinced Labor to back major developments including the port channel widening and stage two of the Haughton pipeline project.

“My No. 1 priority for North Queensland is fighting to deliver good quality, and secure jobs.”

A wild card in such a close contest is likely to be minor party candidates and where their preferences flow.

One Nation and the United Australia Party are both running and have placed the LNP above Labor on their how to vote cards for the seat.

Katter’s Australian Party is using a split ticket, which does not preference one major party over the other.

Billionaire Clive Palmer has been targeting the seat and initially suggested he would run there himself despite still owing payouts to former workers from his failed Queensland Nickel refinery.

But Mr Palmer has promised to pay owed entitlements into a trust fund and is blanketing the seat with advertising.

His candidate Greg Dowling could glean some support merely from his background as a State of Origin legend.

Despite his questionable business history in the area, Mr Palmer could end up helping to decide the result.

Originally published as Marginal seat of Herbert may swing away from Labor