Sportsbet is paying out a Labor victory

The winner hasn’t been announced yet, but Sportsbet has seen enough - it’s paying out on an Anthony Albanese victory.

Noah Yim

@noah_yim

3 min read

May 21, 2022 - 9:24PM

Federal Election

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Labor had firmed as the favourite to win today’s federal election as betting agencies narrowed the odds of Anthony Albanese becoming Australia’s next prime minister.

Now Sportsbet has made the call and is doing early payouts on a Labor victory.

EARLY PAYOUT: Righto, we're done here. We've paid out early on the ALP to be the Next Sworn in Government! #AusPol pic.twitter.com/Jqt9mOLp6O
— Sportsbet.com.au (@sportsbetcomau) May 21, 2022

The odds had shortened for a Labor win, with TAB pricing the party at $1.35, compared to $1.50 yesterday. The Coalition was at $3.40, from $2.65 yesterday.

Labor has been the punters’ preferred party for most of the election campaign. The odds briefly shifted towards the government after Mr Albanese’s gaffe-filled start to the campaign, but quickly blew out.

Sportsbet had Labor briefly touching $1.25 last week, which was the party’s shortest price recorded by the betting agency ever. Labor is now paying $1.32 with Sportsbet, compared to $1.48 yesterday. The Coalition is at $3.60, from $2.80 yesterday.

“After all the colour and movement of the six-week campaign we find ourselves effectively back where we started in terms of prices,” TAB’s Gerard Daffy said.

“While some people might be glad it’s all coming to an end, punters have really embraced the election with TAB expected to hold three times the amount we held on the 2019 federal election.”

In the 2019 election, Sportsbet had to fork out $5.2 million after mistakenly calling early a Labor win two days before the election was called in favour of the Coalition.

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Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese and Prime Minister Scott Morrison. Pictures: Bianca De Marchi / AAP; Gary Ramage / NCA Newswire

The odds on Saturday, May 21 were as follows:

• TAB: Labor $1.35; Coalition $3.40; other $151

• Sportsbet: Labor $1.32; Coalition $3.60; other $101

• Ladbrokes: Labor $1.34; Coalition $3.60; other $151

• UNIBET: Labor $1.31; Coalition $3.50; other $151

• Pointsbet: Labor $1.30; Coalition $3.50; other $201

The odds on Friday, May 20 were as follows:

TAB: Labor $1.50; Coalition $2.65; other $201
Sportsbet: Labor $1.48; Coalition $2.80; other $81
Ladbrokes: Labor $1.51; Coalition $2.85; other $101
UNIBET: Labor $1.46; Coalition $2.70; other $151
Pointsbet: Labor $1.50; Coalition $2.65; other $101

Odds for the Coalition have continued to lengthen after a quick burst in the lead early in the six-week campaign.

Soon after Scott Morrison called the election, on April 12, Sportsbet had the Coalition at $2.35 and Labor at $1.60.

After a disastrous first week for Mr Albanese, the odds flipped with each party paying $1.88 and some agencies favouring a Morrison win. Ladbrokes had the Coalition at $1.80 and Labor at $1.90.

Things soon turned around, however, with the Labor clinching the lead the following week and remaining in front.

How the odds have changed

The odds on April 12 were as follows

TAB: Coalition ($2.35); Labor ($1.60); Other ($67)
Sportsbet: Coalition ($2.40); Labor ($1.55); Other ($67)
Ladbrokes: Coalition ($2.40); Labor ($1.55); Other ($67)
TopSport: Coalition ($2.40); Labor ($1.59); Other ($126)
UNIBET: Coalition ($2.45); Labor ($1.55); Other ($101)
Betfair: Coalition ($2.55); Labor ($1.66); Other ($70)
POINTSBET: Coalition ($2.40); Labor ($1.55); Other ($101)

Opinion polling on that date showed a similar two-party-preferred Labor lead.

Newspoll (April 10): 53-47 (Labor-Coalition)
Essential (April 4): 50-45 (Labor-Coalition)
Ipsos (April 2): 51-42 (Labor-Coalition)
Roy Morgan (April 10): 57-43 (Labor-Coalition)

The odds on Easter Monday, 18 April had dramatically shifted to this:

TAB: Coalition ($1.90); Labor ($1.90); Other ($67)
Sportsbet: Coalition ($1.88); Labor ($1.88); Other ($67)
Labrokes: Coalition ($1.80); Labor ($1.90); Other ($67)
TopSport: Coalition ($1.85); Labour ($1.97); Other ($101)
UNIBET: Coalition ($2.85); Labor ($2.45); Other ($67)
Betfair: Coalition ($1.90); Labor ($1.95); Other ($60)
POINTSBET: Coalition ($1.95); Labor ($1.90); Other ($151)

By Tuesday, 26 April were as follows:

TAB: Coalition ($2.20); Labor ($1.67); Other ($67)
Sportsbet: Coalition ($2.25); Labor ($1.62); Other ($67)
Labrokes: Coalition ($2.20); Labor ($1.62); Other ($101)
TopSport: Coalition ($2.15); Labour ($1.70); Other ($126)
UNIBET: Coalition ($2.05); Labor ($1.75); Other ($101)
Betfair: Coalition ($2.42); Labor ($1.70); Other ($260)
POINTSBET: Coalition ($2.20); Labor ($1.67); Other ($201)

Then at Friday, May 13, the Coalition’s odds had significantly lengthened:

• TAB: Coalition ($3.40); Labor ($1.33); Other ($151)

• Sportsbet: Coalition ($4); Labor ($1.28); Other ($101)

• Labrokes: Coalition ($3.40); Labor ($1.30); Other ($126)

• TopSport: Coalition ($3.50); Labour ($1.31); Other ($251)

• UNIBET: Coalition ($3.30); Labor ($1.34); Other ($101)

• POINTSBET: Coalition ($4); Labor ($1.25); Other ($501)

The odds on Monday, May 16

• TAB: Labor $1.28; Coalition $3.75; other $201

• Sportsbet: Labor $1.28; Coalition $4; other $201

• Ladbrokes: Labor $1.25; Coalition $4; other $126

• TopSport: Labor $1.27; Coalition $3.90; other $251

• UNIBET: Labor $1.25; Coalition $4.05; other $101

• Pointsbet: Labor $1.28; Coalition $3.75; other $501

There is some debate as to which of the two predictors – punters or opinion polls – are more authoritative and accurate. In his book The Luck of Politics, then academic and current sitting Labor MP Andrew Leigh said that punters can hold their own against opinion polls.

“Every time, betting markets have been found to perform at least as well, and usually better than, the polls,” he wrote.

However, election blogger and analyst Peter Brent disagreed, telling The Sydney Morning Herald in 2016 that the collective wisdom of gamblers tends to “dawdle behind the polls”, in effect taking cues from opinion polling to inform their bets.

This is further complicated by how gambling agencies calculate their odds. Sportsbet told news.com.au that federal polling goes into how it calculates odds on its bets.

“We take into account a lot of things — namely previous elections, state elections, redistributions, opinion polling, individual issues/candidates.

“It’s a bit of everything, then combined with overall federal polling. When we set odds, a lot is mostly derived from previous elections and polling.”