What happens if there’s a hung parliament
With the polls narrowing, the possibility of a hung parliament after the election cannot be discounted. Here’s what it means, and what we could expect.
Federal Election
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Australia could be heading back to the polls much sooner than expected if neither party can sort out a watertight deal with the crossbench in the event of a hung parliament, a leading politics expert has warned.
Labor or the Coalition need to win a minimum of 76 seats in the 151-seat House of Representatives in order to govern in their own right. A win of 77 seats would mean they could install one of their own as Speaker and still maintain their majority.
If no party wins that many seats, they will need to negotiate with crossbench MPs to form a minority government, as Julia Gillard did after the 2010 election.
Seniors Liberals have disparaged the notion of a hung parliament. Josh Frydenberg said “We do not need the uncertainty, chaos and confusion,” while in the second leaders’ debate Scott Morrison described the hung parliament after the 2010 election as “just ugly”.
Labor leader Anthony Albanese has been less critical, but he has also ruled out doing deals with the crossbench.
The polls currently point to a Labor victory, but they could be wrong – it happened in 2019 – and it’s not impossible the attitudes of undecided voters could shift at the last moment.
“The low support for the two major parties means there is still the prospect of Australians waking up to a hung Parliament on Sunday morning,” Roy Morgan CEO Michelle Levine said in her summary of the company’s most recent polling data.
So what happens then?
First of all, the administration of the country continues.
The Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet advises the caretaker period for the public service “continues until the election result is clear or, if there is a change of government, until the new government is appointed.”
Meanwhile, despite all assurances to the contrary, we can expect both major parties to negotiate with members of the crossbench to determine if they can govern.
Here’s where it gets tricky, because apart from Greens MP Adam Bandt, who said he will not support the Coalition, most likely members of the next crossbench have refused to disclose exactly whom they would support.
Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie said she would negotiate with the Coalition first; independent MP Andrew Wilkie has ruled out any deals on guaranteeing supply; and even former Nationals member Bob Katter has teased the possibility of doing a deal with Labor.
The independent candidates backed by Climate 200 have also repeatedly refused to reveal who would get their support, with the exception of Jo Dyer standing in Boothby, who has described the Morrison government as “one of the worst … we’ve ever had”.
The Climate 200 independents have been very clear, however, about the policy priorities they would be looking to secure in any deal with an incoming government: a national integrity commission, and tougher action on climate change.
It has also been suggested independents could insist upon a change of Liberal Party leader as the price of their support for the Coalition (Warringah MP Zali Steggall said she would be more likely to support them if Scott Morrison was not leader). Such a condition would be a politically risky manoeuvre for any independents, but as ANU historian Frank Bongiorno pointed out in The Conversation, there is a historical precedent. One hundred years ago, Country Party MPs insisted Billy Hughes stand down as a condition of their support for the Nationalist Party. They got their way, and Stanley Bruce became Prime Minister.
How long could negotiations take?
In 2010, the negotiations over who would form government took 17 days.
Dr Ian Tregenza, senior lecturer in politics at Macquarie University, said there was no constitutional limit on how long negotiations could continue, but “if it drags on and on it starts to look really bad”.
“If you remember back to 2010 there was growing frustration around getting an agreement; 17 days seemed like a long time,” he said.
While the Governor-General would stay out of negotiations, Dr Tregenza said, he could insist upon a vote on the floor of parliament to determine whether a government could be formed.
“If there was no agreement that could be reached or if there was some sort of deadlock, the Governor-General would be forced to call another election,” Dr Tregenza said. “If there was a deadlock in the parliament, it has to be resolved somehow, and the Governor-General has the capacity to call another election.”
Is an independent’s support indefinite?
But a hung parliament could also potentially result in a change in government midterm without an election, if a ruling party’s agreement with crossbenchers broke down.
Once again, there is a precedent.
“It happened in the Second World War, when we had two independents supporting the Menzies government and then voted against the government. John Curtin became Prime Minister without an election,” Dr Tregenza said. (Curtin later won the 1943 election outright.)
Some political commentators say there is nothing to fear from a hung parliament, citing the Gillard government as an administration that succeeded in passing a near-record limit of legislation.
Are hung parliaments good or bad?
Asked whether hung parliaments were ultimately a good thing or a bad thing, Dr Tregenza said it was “not easy to answer in the abstract”.
“The Australian experience has been a strong two-party system. It’s what we’re used to, and it has worked pretty well over the years. But now the two party structure is breaking down, it’s likely we’re going to get more of these situations,” he said.
“There’s a lot more negotiation that has to go on, but I don’t think in the end hung parliaments have to be chaotic or unstable. It all depends on the goodwill of the parties negotiating, and whether they can come up with workable agreements.”
And as South Australian Senator Rex Patrick noted during a forum at the National Press Club during the campaign, this is exactly what already happens in the Upper House.
“There should be no fear in what happens with a hung parliament. That is just bread and butter for the Senate,” he said.
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