Three reasons Redbridge poll shows Labor back in front ahead of Federal election race
There are three reasons why the Labor Party has hit the lead again in the polls, and they’re all bad news for Peter Dutton.
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It’s a simple graph that’s pure nightmare fuel for Peter Dutton.
After months of retaining a lead over Labor on the two-party-preferred basis that will decide the outcome of the next election, something has changed.
Labor’s red line is headed up and it’s crossing the Liberals’ on a downward trajectory.
Labor has hit the lead 51:49 for the first time in more than six months, according to the latest Redbridge polling.
The question is why and what it means for the federal election in May.
It’s still within a margin of error. It’s a reminder the election is close. Is it a blip? Or something more?
When pollsters and journalists tell you the reasons a poll is moving, they are making educated guesses.
Informed, in part, by focus groups with voters and other issues-based questions in polling, they are also using the dreaded tummy compass. The vibe.
Three reasons stand out as the best guesses for the change in Labor’s fortunes. The first is the interest rate cut.
While the Reserve Bank is independent of government, most voters find it hard to separate.
Fairly or unfairly, the decision of the RBA to cut interest rates has clearly prompted some voters to feel more slightly generous about the Albanese Government.
In dollar terms, the rate cut wasn’t a huge amount. However, it has allowed the government to reassure voters there are better days ahead – if US President Donald Trump’s trade war doesn’t send interest rates going up again.
The second reason for the improvement in the Prime Minister’s fortunes relates to the Labor Party’s golden charm: Medicare.
There are many reasons why Bob Hawke and Gough Whitlam are revered by Labor – although Whitlam’s legacy is a far more complex affair – but Medicare hasn’t just improved Australians’ health.
It has provided political CPR to successive Labor leaders and shot kryptonite into the Liberal Party.
And so it is that after announcing the biggest injection into Medicare in decades last month, a dramatic $8 billion investment in Medicare, the Prime Minister’s fortunes are improving.
Overnight the Prime Minister also announced he would slash the cost of PBS scripts to $25 - the lowest price in twenty years.
The Medicare announcement works on multiple levels. It plays to Labor’s strengths on health and it allows the Labor Party to sink the boot into Peter Dutton over his history of trying to introduce a $7 co-payment to see a doctor.
Which is a shameless argument, given most patients are paying a good deal more than $7 in a gap payment these days, if they can’t find a bulk-billing GP.
It’s also another reminder that big announcements take a little while to soak in to the polls. Never judge a budget or a big announcement by a single poll taken the following week.
Which is why the Medicare announcement was timed to be dropped ahead of the March 8 Western Australia election, with the PM planning to call the federal election straight after for April 12, until Cyclone Alfred turned up.
That could have all gone very badly for Mr Albanese but, to date, it seems more neutral.
But the impact of Cyclone Alfred did have another political fallout. It has forced Mr Albanese to dump his plans to scrap the March 25 budget.
And that puts his former leadership rival Jim Chalmers firmly in the driver’s seat.
The conventional wisdom for months has been that a budget was bad news for the government.
The reason was that it includes all sorts of nasties in terms of economic numbers.
But there’s a counter analysis: While Australians may be frustrated and underwhelmed by Mr Albanese, a view shared by many of his MPs, a budget gives Treasurer Jim Chalmers a platform to demonstrate his skills as one of the government’s best communicators.
Redbridge pollster Tony Barry expresses it bluntly.
“More threateningly, for the Liberals, is that Jim Chalmers now has the microphone,’’ he says.
“To be quite frank, I’d rather Albo if I was a marginal Liberal-seat MP. If I was a marginal Labor MP I would prefer Jim Chalmers to buggerlugs.”
Old buggerlugs being the Prime Minister.
“The Coalition should be careful what they wish for, because despite all the political challenges of a budget, Albanese will be communicating less and Chalmers will be communicating more,’’ explains the pollster.
Expect more of that after the election, because the prospect of the Prime Minister bowing out even if he wins the next election and the Treasurer emerging as his replacement, is real. Win or lose.
But back to the polling. When Redbridge asked voters the most important issues driving their vote, it was the cost of living and then daylight.
Housing affordability is second and is clearly intertwined with cost of living.
The third issue? Healthcare. It’s way below cost of living and housing affordability but it’s in the mix.
And now ask yourself, what concrete solutions has Peter Dutton offered to bring down the cost of living and address housing affordability? What’s he doing on Medicare?
If you can’t think of any off the top of your head, the Liberal Party can’t win the election.
And if Peter Dutton wants to change all of that, he’s got to act fast because the PM may well call the election in 10 days for May 3.
Originally published as Three reasons Redbridge poll shows Labor back in front ahead of Federal election race
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