‘Fundamentally damaged’: Moment Aussies turned on Dutton

There was one reason why the voting public began to see the Coalition leader as a “risk” — and it sparked a downward spiral in the polls.

Peter Dutton’s bid to end public servants working from home was the moment Australians began to see the Coalition leader as a risk and sparked a downward spiral in the polls that was further fuelled by uncertainty created by US President Donald Trump.

Pollsters say just as the voting public began to seriously compare Mr Dutton and Anthony Albanese, the opposition announced its policy to make Canberra public servants return to the office five days a week, which galvanised the idea the Coalition would not protect their work rights.

The disastrous WFH pledge was weaponised by Labor, but YouGov director of public data Paul Smith said his researchers picked up concern around the policy on social media immediately after it was revealed on March 4 before the unions and ALP had really begun to hone in on the issue.

“The Labor Party was not driving this (at first), it was a spontaneous reaction from people,” he said.

Peter Dutton’s bid to end public servants working from home was the moment Australians began to saw the Coalition leader as a “risk”. Picture: DAVID GRAY / AFP

A few days earlier Mr Trump had held his combative meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office, which had shocked Australians and further fuelled unease about the unpredictable US President.

But Mr Smith said it wasn’t until the tariff decision tanked Australians’ superannuation that voters began to feel Mr Trump’s policies directly affected them, and started to really fear connections between the MAGA movement and the Coalition.

“Mr Dutton (opposing work from home) sent a message that he and the Coalition were completely out of touch with ordinary people’s lives, and from that moment, those voters viewed him as a risk to them and their family,” he said.

Dutton lost his seat of Dickson to Ali France. Picture: Annette Dew / NewsWire

Mr Smith said the problem was Mr Dutton’s strategy of targeting working class seats was “completely at odds” with its policy strategies.

“You can’t win working class sets, without being on the side of people who work,” he said.

YouGov research detected support for the “right” to work form home was around 80 per cent, including among three quarters of people who planned to vote Liberal.

“The problem was that the Liberal Party’s biggest brand weakness is their anti-people’s rights at work weakness, this is the reason John Howard lost his seat in 2007 and Stanley Melvin Bruce in 1929, why Peter Dutton lost their seat this time – they all positioned themselves against people’s rights at work during that election,” Mr Smith said.

Mr Dutton’s negative approval went from -2 per cent – almost neutral – in late February, to -24 by the end of the campaign, with the majority of the downward slide occurring in the final two weeks.

Mr Smith said the anti-worker policies established Mr Dutton as a “risk” and once those issues were explicitly linked to Mr Trump in voters’ minds, the Coalition leader’s standing was “fundamentally damaged”.