Federal Budget 2016: Tory Shepherd analysis

ANALYSIS: Scott Morrison says people from Whyalla to Townsville want an economic plan for the nation. They’ve moved on from that whole winner/loser thing, he reckons. That’s some wishful thinking.

• MAIN WRAP: Job creation centrepiece of Budget
• REVEALED: Budget winners and losers
• OUR STATE: What the Budget means for SA
• ANALYSIS: Is this Budget enough for Coalition to retain power?
• KOCHIE’S VERDICT: There’s good news and bad news

TREASURER Scott Morrison says people from Whyalla to Townsville want an economic plan for the nation. They’ve moved on from that whole winner/loser thing, he reckons.

That’s some wishful thinking.

It’s a truism to call this an election Budget, and elections are all about winners and losers.

The question is whether it is a winning election Budget.

It’s not a brilliant election Budget; it has a decent story the Government can tell.

But that story has sizeable holes in it, holes critics and Labor will try to tear wide open.

We have whiz bang plans with shiny names, promises of dwindling unemployment and the shimmering mirage of a surplus, just beyond the forward estimates.

The national enterprise plan — really, a series of rolling tax cuts for businesses, starting small and getting bigger — will bring the jittery business community on side.

And it will help Labor target the Government over being for business, not for people.

Keeping those earning under $87,000 in a lower tax bracket is a much-needed way to start dealing with bracket creep.

And it gives Labor the gift of decrying tax cuts for the rich as they try to snare the votes of Middle Australia.

Using both carrot and stick to put young people to work could seem a tough but fair measure that will garner the approval of the conservatives and the talkback callers, and will help drive down unemployment.

Social justice advocates and, again, Labor, will be able to start a drumbeat of fear about businesses getting the go ahead to exploit some of our vulnerable people.

Changes to superannuation are well overdue. Tackling the wealthiest 1 per cent and helping low-income earners will give the Government some ballast against arguments they only care about the rich.

Labor will be able to crow that the $500 tax offset for low-income earners is effectively just a replacement for their $500 low-income contribution.

There are a range of fronts where the Government will have to put out fires if they’re to turn around their 49-51 standing in the polls.

There’s the freeze on the Medicare rebate, which will get the all-powerful Australian Medical Association fired up and could motivate GPs to campaign.

Malcolm Turnbull and his senior ministers congratulate Treasurer Scott Morrison after his Budget Speech in Parliament House on Tuesday night. Picture: Kym Smith

They have previously argued that if their rebate effectively goes backwards, they will be forced to bring in their own co-payment.

That word is a poisonous hark back to the ultimately career-killing 2014 Budget brought down by Joe Hockey.

Mr Morrison and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull will put pressure on Labor over their economic management; the Opposition’s costings were dealt a blow this week by the leaking of Treasury numbers showing a $19 billion black hole.

But there will be doubts about the Coalition’s own projections, particularly with their focus on the long-term.

Asked whether he was being a bit of a Budget Pollyanna with his Budget’s growth, Mr Morrison said:

“Yes, we’re optimistic, but I don’t think unreasonably slow (er, um) so.”

In South Australia the Government had a major breakthrough when they announced that 12 submarines would be built at Osborne.

They had been under intense pressure after years of Labor inaction and Coalition flipflopping.

To announce anything but an onshore build would have been electoral poison and a threat to Christopher Pyne in Sturt.

But again, there’s no smooth sailing. The other states have their hands out for a bigger share of the work.

Mr Morrison will wake up this morning hoping he can spend from now until the July 2 election drumming the phrase “jobs and growth” into voters’ heads, and that he will be able to implant the idea that Labor can’t be trusted.

But it is never that simple.

Vested interests will attack him from all sides. We have a long election campaign to see how he manages to fight back.

To see how he manages to convince enough people they are winners, not losers.

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