What Peter Dutton must do to win 2025 federal election

In normal times, what Peter Dutton is tasked with achieving would be impossible. But these are not normal times, argues James Morrow.

In normal times, what Peter Dutton is tasked with achieving would be impossible.

But these are not normal times.

The Coalition is, at this point, an even money shot at knocking off Anthony Albanese’s Labor government after just one term. If Dutton succeeds, he will be the first opposition leader to pull off the feat since Joseph Lyons knocked off Labor’s James Scullin in 1931.

That’s an important point, because Scullin’s government fell at the height of the Great Depression.

Things may not be quite as dire now, but even when history does not repeat it rhymes.

Then as now the economy is everyone’s number one concern: The country is in a per capita recession, living standards are heading backwards, and it seems middle Australia feels the country is on the wrong track.

Yes, the Dutton camp is quietly confident about picking up seats in NSW and Victoria and if trends hold the Coalition has a shot certainly at minority government.

Crystalising this discontent into votes, though, is tougher.

People may complain about the cost of living but short of fiddling around the margins or handing out money there is not a lot any government can do to bring about a quick change in circumstance.

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Can Peter Dutton do the impossible? Picture: Richard Dobson.

The real solution, improving productivity while shrinking government’s share of the economy is tougher, particularly when Labor stands ready to Mediscare every coming Liberal policy idea to death.

Here Dutton is with the problem that Albanese and his treasurer, Jim Chalmers, have cannily wired up the economy so that ever larger numbers of us are, one way or another, dependent on the government.

More than 500,000 people are now making a living off the NDIS, many earning well over the odds for their services.

At the other end of the economy, big corporates and lobbyists are now competing for their share of $22.7bn worth of corporatist largesse via the Future Made in Australia scheme.

Caught in the middle are everyone else left paying for all this, amid an economy that runs on migrants, mining, minting degrees, and talking about – but never quite building – more housing.

Peter Dutton and his dog Ralph. Picture: Instagram

Meanwhile, our much vaunted social cohesion is being frayed, not just by anti-semitic attacks but by a seemingly unstoppable migration program that does precious little to integrate these would be new Australians into the national family.

So, what’s the solution?

Dutton must have a more compelling story to tell – not just about how Labor has screwed things up, but how things can and will get better.

This is also where he has a distinct advantage over Albanese, who lacks the agility to escape the looming shadow of an increasingly static two speed economy.

A story of a more hopeful, more united, and more prosperous Australia is where Dutton needs to fight from, not just because it would be good for the country, but because Albanese can’t promise any of those things.

Originally published as What Peter Dutton must do to win 2025 federal election