The fierce battles set to erupt in key seats as Dutton seeks miracle

Victoria will swing, WA is a stronghold, NSW is up for grabs and fierce battles unfold in Teal and Green seats. As we get to the pointy end of this campaign, these are the seats to watch, writes Tom Connell.

Never has the old adage ‘all politics is local’ been more apt than at this year’s federal election.

While national opinion polls are still the best indicator of how the overall Labor versus Coalition battle will go, the country is not moving in one political direction.

Victoria will swing away from Labor. WA is now the government’s stronghold. NSW appears up for grabs.

And a series of fierce battles are unfolding in Teal and Green seats across the nation.

So as we get to the pointy end of this campaign, what are the seats to watch?

Bruce in Melbourne’s southeastern suburbs will be a test of both how much Victorians are turning against Labor, and the success of Peter Dutton’s strategy of winning outer suburban seats.

Labor’s margin in the seat is a gettable but still difficult 5.3 per cent. Family incomes in the electorate are $250 lower than the national average, yet mortgage stress is 26 per cent higher. So cost of living will be biting hard.

It’s always worth keeping an eye on the seat where a campaign is launched, with Mr Dutton zeroing in on Werriwa in Sydney’s south-west.

Sam Kayal is having a second go for the Liberal party, and while the margin is again 5.3 per cent, this is a rapidly changing seat with new suburbs being built, and the Opposition hopes it can woo voters with its housing plan.

It’s not all defence for Labor – it’s eyeing off Braddon in Tasmania’s north west, held by the Liberal party by 8 per cent.

That might seem overly ambitious, but Labor had a problematic candidate last time who has been replaced by popular former senator Anne Urquhart, while the Liberal member Gavin Pearce is stepping down.

Labor also thinks its primary vote will get a boost because there is nobody from the Jacqui Lambie Network running this time, so this seat is set to be close, and any Labor gains make it very hard for the coalition to win the election.

In Boothby in Adelaide’s southern suburbs Nicolle Flint is back for the Liberal party. She quit politics in 2022 allowing Labor’s Louise Miller-Frost to win it by 3.3 per cent.

This seat will be a contest of two competing trends – the national mood of a tough 3 years of people going backwards under Federal Labor, coming up the near messiah level of popularity of Premier Peter Malinauskas.

Expect to see plenty of ‘Mali’ on the campaign trail.

Predicting seats in the Northern Territory is notoriously difficult, with the smaller electorates prone to big swings, so don’t let the 8.4 per cent margin of the greater Darwin seat of Solomon fool you – it’s definitely in play.

Labor suffered a massive 10 per cent TPP swing against it in last year’s territory election, and crime is again set to be a major issue, with CLP candidate Lisa Bayliss a 30 year veteran of the NT police force.

A Climate 200-backed candidate could complicate the vote as well.

In Queensland, all eyes will be on the three seats the Greens won in a surprise at the last election.

Brisbane will be an intriguing three-way contest, but the equation is simple for Labor – if it can finish ahead of the Greens, which it fell short of by less than 2000 votes last time, it would then likely win the seat against the LNP with the help of Greens preferences.

Local member Stephen Bates is campaigning hard on policies to help renters, who have become the key demographic for the party.

Watch Sky News chief election Analyst Tom Connell call every seat live on election night. Stream on SkyNews.com.au