Party Games: Winning election not enough for Malcolm Turnbull

EVEN if Malcolm Turnbull holds on as PM tomorrow the results of the Federal Election will bring more tests for him, which could land him in serious trouble with colleagues.

IF MALCOLM Turnbull loses the election he’ll be toast everywhere but at home in Point Piper.

That outcome might reflect the published polls which, even at the last minute, said the electorate was split down the middle but it flies in the face of all the betting markets which give the Coalition a two in three chance of winning.

Not only do the betting markets say Turnbull will stay Prime Minister, it’s also the expectation among media pundits and campaign insiders from both major parties.

So, if Turnbull wins the size of his victory will become the focus of attention.

The tests he faces are whether he wins enough House of Representative seats to satisfy his colleagues that he has not burnt Tony Abbott’s legacy.

This is the “what was the point of the coup” threshold and it looks like being at about 80 seats or just above that level.

If Turnbull loses 10 seats or more he’ll be in serious trouble with his colleagues who will be asking if they might have done better by sticking with Abbott. This is a dangerous place for the PM to be even if he has a majority.

Losing a net handful of seats — and finishing with 85 or so — would be seen as a decent if not spectacular victory.

The second test is what happens in the Senate — whether the Coalition increases on its current number of 33 or loses a seat or two to minor parties and independents. Just hanging on to those 33 in the current mood would be seen as satisfactory.

The third test is the least consequential in internal Liberal Party terms but will provoke questions from the public.

This is whether Turnbull manages to get enough MPs — the House and Senate — to pass the double dissolution industrial relations bills.

Liberals strategists say Turnbull will pass the first test quite comfortably — and therefore probably get the numbers for the third test — but the Senate is complete mystery seen as too hard to predict.

Don’t miss Dennis Atkins and Malcolm Farr’s election podcast Two Grumpy Hacks, available for free on iTunes or Soundcloud.

Originally published as Party Games: Winning election not enough for Malcolm Turnbull