Opinion: Turnbull needs to watch his back

THE Courier-Mail/Galaxy poll contains more good news than bad for the Coalition but there is one flashing amber light they should take note of.

MALCOLM Turnbull and the Coalition should be alert but not alarmed when they consider this morning’s Courier-Mail/Galaxy poll.

It contains more good news than bad but there is a flashing amber light they should take note of.

That the ratings for the Coalition and Turnbull have continued to come off from the dizzy heights of late 2015 and early this year is no surprise, reflecting as it does all the other published data from new surveys.

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The better news for Turnbull is that he’s well in front of Shorten as an economic manager – a question where he even polls handily among Labor voters with one in five giving him a tick.

He dominates his opponent on the issues likely to be most important to Queenslanders such as rolling out broadband, funding infrastructure and irrigation and getting behind major projects.

If Turnbull can put some substance behind these things – by pledging to invest in these areas where people in this state want results – he can hold back any swing towards Labor.

He is going to have to be on guard though as there are warnings in this poll that his leads are not necessarily enduring and certainly not invincible.

For instance, on having a better plan for Queensland, Turnbull has slipped further down losing a third of the 60 per cent of people who have him their backing in this last year.

That confidence he can deliver for Queensland is looking a little brittle with Shorten now within striking distance.

The LNP is at the level seen at the last election but Labor’s primary vote is up just over three points. Picture: AAP

Also, because the Coalition here has come back to the pack Turnbull doesn’t have the vote buffer to necessarily protect his MPs.

The LNP is at the level seen at the last election but Labor’s primary vote is up just over three points, giving the ALP a chance in a handful of seats.

The increase in this primary support, plus the absence of the Palmer Party, means what that base vote translates to on the ground is the great unknown in this poll.

Turnbull will need a strong showing – and play a no mistakes game – to maximise his chances in Queensland. This poll says he can do it but he can’t count on it.

Originally published as Opinion: Turnbull needs to watch his back