Lockdown won’t eliminate virus from Victoria — we need a new path to recovery
In the absence of a vaccine, Victoria’s post-lockdown normal will see life still revolve around COVID-19. And getting back on track will be a task equal to, if not greater than, battling coronavirus itself, writes Shannon Deery.
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What comes after the crisis?
When we do indeed get rid of this dreaded virus, what then?
We will do it. That much is certain.
Experts believe we’ve passed the peak, and numbers are trending down.
It should be all downhill from here.
That means we must be in a position to start reopening the economy at the end of the current lockdown period.
If we don’t, or can’t, the human cost will far outweigh that caused by the virus so far.
New Zealand, the envy of COVID-fighters worldwide, eliminated the virus.
And now it’s back.
After 102 days of blissful coronavirus-free living, a single case emerged in Auckland.
Then five more, then 14 more in the growing cluster that authorities feared would continue to grow.
Then, 200km away in a town south of Auckland, Tokoroa, another case emerged.
It threw the country straight back into lockdown.
One thing we know for sure is lockdowns don’t kill this virus. Our recovery model can’t ignore this.
In the absence of a vaccine, which is the only realistic basis on which any planning should be proceeding, how do we emerge from lockdown?
It is inevitable that outbreaks will continue to develop. Not just in the short term. Well into next year and beyond, the virus could rear its ugly head.
We cannot simply shut everything down whenever it does.
We must be planning for a life with COVID, not simply a life beyond COVID.
It’s a fact Daniel Andrews has been clear about.
In the absence of a vaccine, we won’t be returning to normal. We’ll be learning COVID normal.
The Victorian government is not yet keen to discuss publicly what our recovery path looks like. That’s understandable. The focus must be on getting rid of COVID-19 from the community.
But surely, they have one.
We’ve had months to prepare for this, and indeed we’ve had a practice run.
Now we also have the benefit of looking across the country to learn from what has and hasn’t worked when emerging from lockdown.
Getting Victoria back on track will be a herculean task for the Premier, equal to, if not greater than, battling coronavirus itself.
It will likely be a task for a long line of his successors.
Even before our latest lockdown, all key indicators tipped Victoria would be the hardest hit.
The number of jobs in Victoria was 7.3 per cent lower in mid-July than in mid-March, a deeper fall than any other state.
In inner Melbourne, the number of jobs was down nearly 10 per cent from mid-March.
These figures capture only the start of the stage three lockdowns which were extended to all of Melbourne and the Mitchell Shire from July 8.
Dire forecasts now tip unemployment to hit 11 per cent.
Any recovery plan will have to target those left vulnerable by these statistics.
Young people who were just starting out in the workforce, but have either had hours slashed or lost their jobs entirely. Or those over 50s who are going to struggle to get back into the workforce.
Then there are the small business owners who have lost it all, not just their life’s work, and probably savings, but the ambition and drive to keep going. They’re probably also been left saddled with debt.
Families have lost significant income streams, students have slipped through the cracks at school.
Mental health issues have soared.
Things may seem bad now, but we are only starting to face the economic consequences of this pandemic.
The massive consequences of closing off migration and tourism will have far wider ramifications.
The Victorian government says our building and construction sector is key to getting the economy back on track.
But its going to take so much more than investment in big projects.
Among other things we will need to work out how we can best live with COVID.
Quicker detection and contact tracing will be key, as will efficient and secure quarantining.
The extra capacity built into our health system in planning for worst case modelling needs to remain, and more added.
We will have a part to play too, in remaining vigilant, and compliant with inevitable harsh new regulations we’ll need to live by.
The Premier said last week 2020 was shaping up to be the hardest year of our lives. No arguments here.
But without a real plan for recovery, 2021 and beyond could be just as tough.
SHANNON DEERY IS HERALD SUN STATE POLITICS EDITOR