Leopold coach concedes finals improbable after late season slip ups

With three teams vying for two spots in the top four in the last round of the season, the Addy has broken down the percentages to see how each team plays finals next week.

Cricket GCA2: Leopold v St Peter's at Leopold. Leopold batsman Corey Ogle. Picture: Mark Wilson

With three teams vying for two spots in the top four in the last round of the season, the Addy has broken down the percentages to see how each team plays finals next week.

Geelong City

Record: 11-2-0 (72 points)

Percentage: 1.94%

Finals Range: 1st

Geelong City will face sixth-placed Bell Post Hill in the final round of the season, but that match will be nothing more than a tune up for finals. City stamped its ticket weeks ago, has tied up top spot and will be hoping to finish the season undefeated.

Torquay

Record: 7-3-3 (51 points)

Percentage: 1.37%

Finals Range: 2nd-4th

With a game against bottom-side Marshall, Torquay seems destined to lock up a top-two finish on Saturday. A win or a draw means the Tigers will face Geelong City in the opening week of the finals campaign, which was the round 13 match up that got washed out. If Torquay suffer a surprise loss, they could drop as far as fourth, but finals is a certainty for this side.

Murgheboluc

Record: 7-1-5 (45 points)

Percentage: 1.29%

Finals Range: 2nd-5th

With a game against Leopold in the last round of the season, Murgheboluc is a chance to drop out of the top four. It would take a big loss against the fifth-placed side, but it is mathematically possible. Currently the Frogs are 0.36% ahead of Leopold, which is a large difference to overcome in one game. Murgheboluc would need to concede a score of 200+ for a loss of no wickets, and then lose all 10 wickets and fall short by at least 90 runs for the percentage to be flipped enough.

St Peter’s

Record: 6-3-4 (45 points)

Percentage: 1.25%

Finals Range: 2nd-5th

St Peter’s has a game against Geelong West to finish the season, who has no chance of making finals. The T20 finalists would seal up finals with a victory, with a final against Murgheboluc the most likely outcome. Depending on the two team’s results, a home final is well and truly up in the air, with St Peter’s trailing by just 0.04%. It is unlikely they drop out of finals, but if St Peter’s loses heavily to Geelong West, and Leopold win strongly against Murgheboluc, they could drop out of the top four.

Leopold

Record: 5-3-5 (39 points)

Percentage: 0.93%

Finals Range: 3rd-6th

Leopold has likely left its run for finals too late, with a massive win against Leopold required to sneak into the top four. The Lions cannot make finals by bowling first, even if they dismiss the Frogs for a score of 10-0 and then score a six off the first ball, the percentage gap is too great. But if Leopold posts a score of 200 for no wicket lost, then bowls out Murgheboluc for 90 runs less than the total posted, the Lions should jump in. Every wicket lost is equivalent to about 0.012 per cent, meaning for every wicket lost in their innings the Lions would need to score an additional 20 runs more than the team total of 200, then bowl out Murgheboluc for a score around 110. St Peter’s would need to lose by about 80 runs, as well as Leopold securing a win by about the same margin, to overcome the fourth-placed side.

‘Winning momentum’ more important than top two finish

MURGHEBOLUC coach Dan Grozdanovski says it is important to keep the winning momentum going ahead of the club’s finals campaign.

The Frogs have a chance to secure second spot on the ladder and a double chance in the finals if they can knock off Leopold, who are sitting fifth and need to win to make the top four.

Grozdanovski said finishing top two would be a bonus on top of a good win against a finals hopeful.

“We’re a chance to finish second but really we’re more focused on going into finals with winning momentum behind us,” he said.

“The last thing you want is to go into a finals series coming off a loss, the momentum isn’t there and people aren’t completely confident.

“If you can keep winning heading into the finals then it really puts you in a good stead and headspace to keep winning those finals straight away.”

A win against Leopold would close the door for the Lions’ finals chances, while a loss for Murgheboluc would keep Leopold in with a chance if they overturned the percentage deficit.

Murgheboluc has four batters inside the top 20 leading run scorers this season, but Lewy Hyland (253 runs) is the highest-ranked Frog in 11th spot.

With the Frogs are not yet confirmed to be playing finals, Grozdanovski said they would play their strongest side and hoped to build confidence with both the bat and ball.

“We’re pretty close to knowing our best side, but we’re lucky in that we’ve got the depth behind us to make changes if we need to,” he said.

“Nothing is set in stone, you want guys coming in with good form behind them, so we want guys batting really well in the twos so if someone isn’t really performing in the ones we can switch things around.

“Our twos are in a really positive situation at the moment as well, so the positive there is if someone is missing out on the senior finals then they’re still likely to get a game in the twos and keeps that depth really strong through both ones and twos finals.”

‘Shot ourselves in the foot’ in late run for finals

LEOPOLD coach Corey Ogle has conceded his side was unlikely to make finals with just one week left in the season.

The Lions are currently fifth on the ladder, six points and 0.31 per cent off fourth-placed St Peter’s, and will face third-placed Murgheboluc in the last round of the season.

Ogle said it would be tough to make up the percentage required to leapfrog either St Peter’s or Murgheboluc.

“I think we’ve shot ourselves in the foot a bit,” he said.

“There were a couple of games in the last few weeks, since that washout against Geelong West, that we should’ve won.

“On the weekend I thought it would be a ‘win and get in’ sort of set up in the final week, but Murgheboluc and Marshall managed to finish their game which put them six points ahead of us instead of three.

“I saw they bowled a fair bit of spin to get through the overs quickly, which was pretty smart, but it has left us needing to overcome a fair bit of percentage.

GCA2: Leopold v Geelong City. Tim Marshall batting for Leopold.

“I can’t really see us making up that ground percentage wise.”

Murgheboluc led Leopold by three points ahead of round 13, and with the majority of competition across the weekend getting washed out it was likely that buffer would remain in place.

But the Frogs pushed through the rain, reaching a total of 2-186 off 26 overs, before keeping Marshall to 9-154 off 25 overs in a Duckworth-Lewis affected game.

The result means Leopold are six points and 0.31 per cent out of the top four, with St Peter’s set to face Geelong West who cannot make finals.

Ogle said Leopold needed a miracle for the seniors to make finals, but the reserve side was trying to lock up a top-two spot.

“We’re in a good position in our seconds, we will play finals there so we’re pretty excited about that,” he said.

“Hopefully we can put in a good performance across the board to finish the season on a high and then worry about the twos and threes next week, who are both in the finals.”

Originally published as Leopold coach concedes finals improbable after late season slip ups