Gold Coast Covid: Health staff told to prepare for 16,000 cases

Health authorities warned staff in a private meeting the Gold Coast should brace for rampant Covid-19 cases, deaths and long-tail effects on hospital operations when the border opens. DETAILS >>

HEALTH authorities are bracing for 16,000 cases of Covid-19 on the Gold Coast in the six months “after the virus starts circulating”, with nearly 600 hospitalised, 98 in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and 87 deaths from the disease.

The “worst case scenario” was revealed to Gold Coast Health staff on Wednesday, with workers told there’d be a ramping up of the disease in February with a “wave” expected to hit in March/April.

The “worst case scenario” was revealed to Gold Coast Health staff on Wednesday. Picture: Glenn Hampson

But they were also given a “big word of caution” the figures could change and a cases spike could be earlier or later.

Medical experts told the meeting they were using “other” modelling, not Doherty Institute projections guiding the federal government reopening, to ready the Gold Coast health service and hospital for when Queensland moves from its strategy of elimination to suppression – and finally to living with Covid-19.

Doherty projections for the first 180 days with 80 per cent of people over age 16 fully vaccinated predict about 4000 cases, 140 admissions 30 in ICU and 23 deaths.

But staff were told it was probably an “underestimate” and actual numbers will be “much much bigger”, so the health service was preparing for a three-to-six month outbreak.

The medical panel said plans had been drawn up so the health and hospital service was protected from the virus “overwhelm” that happened in NSW and Victoria.

Staff were told the Gold Coast could expect 16,645 symptomatic cases, 591 ward admissions and 98 people taking up ICU beds.

All up 87 Gold Coasters would die in six months.

While the modelling could change if assumptions around vaccine rates changed, the medical team said “what we know is there are going to be numbers and we are going to tolerate the numbers”.

In the worst-case scenario, Gold Coast University Hospital could have three to four inpatient wards dedicated to Covid-19 patients.

During the initial response, category three elective surgery will be cancelled, with outpatient consultations done virtually if possible.

During an escalated response, category two elective surgeries would be reduced to 60 per cent, with some public patients operated on in private hospitals.

When the city’s health response to the Covid-19 outbreak is at a “critical” level, all elective surgery would be stopped and only category one and trauma patients would be treated.

The emergency department will also be realigned to offer a Covid and non-Covid admission pathway, with the waiting areas for patients so free up ambulances to get “back out to the next case”.

Coolangatta Border control measures. Picture: Mike Batterham

In regards to staffing, the service plans to have 400 full-time equivalent nursing staff at fever clinics, quarantine hotels and vaccination centres.

Staff will also be reassigned to Covid-19 wards and new medical and nursing graduates will be trained to run vaccination and testing centres.

In the case of widespread transmission, health care workers may change to working 12-hour shifts.

Patients who are well, will be cared for in virtual wards, meaning at home with phone checks. Even when the city has 100 cases a day the public health service intends to keep up the labour-intensive contact tracing process.

High vaccination rates were key in the health services response, with medical leaders saying the Gold Coast needed a better vaccination rate because it was the first line of defence against the looming outbreak.

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Originally published as Gold Coast Covid: Health staff told to prepare for 16,000 cases