Predicted ladder: Every GFNL result in the run home predicted

Who makes finals and where will every side finish? We have predicted every result in the last seven rounds — and one top-five side could miss out. See every side’s run home.

The Joeys are edging towards undefeated season. Picture: Mark Wilson

The mid-season bye is over and the business end of the season is here.

The top-two looks set in stone in the GFNL but the other three finals spots are up for grabs in the run home.

We have predicted the result of every game in the last seven rounds and where every club may finish.

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1. St Joseph’s (11-0, 193.3%)

R12 – St Albans (H) – W

R13 – North Shore (H) – W

R14 – South Barwon (A) – W

R15 Geelong West (H) – W

R16 – Grovedale (H) – W

R17 – Lara (A) – W

R18 – Colac (H) – W

Predicted finish: 1st (18-0)

An undefeated season? It is definitely on the cards for the Joeys, who play two top-six sides in the last seven games and head away from Herne Hill Reserve just twice. Their toughest challenge is South Barwon away in round 14, but the Swans have dropped games to Colac and Leopold there already this season. Expect some percentage boosting wins over St Albans and North Shore in the next fortnight.

2. St Mary’s (10-1, 304.1%)

R12 – Newtown & Chillwell (H) – W

R13 – Leopold (A) – W

R14 – Geelong West (A) – W

R15 – North Shore (H) – W

R16 – Colac (A) – W

R17 – St Albans (H) – W

R18 – Bell Park (A) – W

Predicted finish: 2nd (17-1)

The Saints have pummelled all in their wake aside from their nailbiting loss to St Joseph’s. It would be a surprise to see them drop a game in the run home, but they do face Leopold, Colac and Bell Park away from home. But after beating the trio by more than 40 points this year, they should enter favourites against all of them.

Noah Biggs celebrates a goal for the Saints. Picture: Mark Wilson

3. Leopold (8-3, 169.3%)

R12 – Geelong West (A) – W

R13 – St Mary’s (H) – L

R14 – Colac (A) – L

R15 – South Barwon (H) – W

R16 – St Albans (A) – W

R17 – North Shore (H) – W

R18 – Newtown & Chillwell (A) – W

Predicted finish: 3rd (13-5)

A difficult three weeks against St Mary’s, Colac and South Barwon awaits after a winnable game against Geelong West in round 12. The Lions knocked off Colac by 21-points earlier in the year but the Tigers kicked 9.16 in that match and winning down in Colac is a different thing altogether. Leopold has South Barwon’s measure and should beat them again in round 15.

Leopold is in a strong position. Picture: Alan Barber

4. Bell Park (8-3, 112.95%)

R12 – Colac (A) – L

R13 – St Albans (H) – W

R14 – North Shore (A) – W

R15 – Lara (A) – W

R16 – South Barwon (A) – L

R17 – Grovedale (A) – W

R18 – St Mary’s (H) – L

Predicted finish: 6th (12-6)

Bell Park has been the surprise packet of the GFNL season, upsetting Colac and Leopold. But with the lowest percentage in the top-six, every game will be crucial in the run home. Big wins will be required against St Albans, North Shore and Lara to boost their percentage with South Barwon and Colac waiting to pounce. If they can manage to defeat Colac again on the road, they will be another step closer to a finals berth. However, losses to the Tigers and South Barwon could mean they just miss out.

5. South Barwon (7-4, 162.9%)

R12 – Grovedale (H) – W

R13 – Lara (A) – W

R14 – St Joseph’s (H) – L

R15 – Leopold (A) – L

R16 – Bell Park (A) – W

R17 – Newtown & Chillwell (H) – W

R18 – Geelong West (H) – W

Predicted finish: 4th (12-6)

South Barwon has a couple of easier games precedes a tough three-game stretch against St Joseph’s, Leopold and Bell Park. Win two of those games, they should be in the top-five but if they lose all three, it might be curtains. Boosting their percentage will also be critical with the race likely to be tight between them, Bell Park and Colac.

Can South Barwon knock off Leopold? Picture: Alan Barber

6. Colac (7-4, 151.9%)

R12 – Bell Park (A) – W

R13 – Newtown & Chillwell (A) – W

R14 – Leopold (H) – W

R15 – St Albans (A) – W

R16 – St Mary’s (H) – L

R17 – Geelong West (A) – W

R18 – St Joseph’s (A) – L

Predicted finish: 5th (12-6)

Colac needs to claim a scalp in the run home to make the finals. The Tigers’ season may well be on the line this weekend against Bell Park. A home clash against Leopold a fortnight later could decide their season, and they will be confident given they managed to defeat the Lions at Central Reserve last year.

7. Newtown & Chillwell (4-7, 102.7%)

R12 – St Mary’s (A) – L

R13 – Colac (H) – L

R14 – St Albans (A) – W

R15 – Grovedale (H) – W

R16 – North Shore (A) – W

R17 – South Barwon (A) – L

R18 – Leopold (H) – L

Predicted finish: 7-11

The Eagles’ slim finals hopes will be over if they can’t upset St Mary’s and Colac in the next fortnight. They do have the opportunity to shake up the finals mix late in the year in their last two matches to close out the season against South Barwon and Leopold.

8. Geelong West (4-7, 101.5%)

R12 – Leopold (H) – L

R13 – Grovedale (A) – W

R14 – St Mary’s (H) – L

R15 – St Joseph’s (A) – L

R16 – Lara (H) – W

R17 – Colac (H) – L

R18 – South Barwon (A) – L

Predicted finish: 8th (6-12)

Should get wins over Grovedale and Lara at home, but the rest of their games are against top-six opposition. Don’t be surprised if they pinch one of two of those games, though.

9. Grovedale (3-8, 51.0%)

R12 – South Barwon (A) – L

R13 – Geelong West (H) – L

R14 – Lara (H) – W

R15 – Newtown & Chillwell (A) – L

R16 – St Joseph’s (A) – L

R17 – Bell Park (H) – L

R18 – North Shore (H) – W

Predicted finish: 9th (5-13)

Grovedale faces Lara and North Shore at home to close out the season which present as winnable games. If they lose either of those they may be leapfrogged on the ladder.

Mitch Chafer will be key for the Tigers in the run home. Picture: Mark Wilson

10. Lara (2-9, 52.7%)

R12 – North Shore (H) – L

R13 – South Barwon (H) – L

R14 – Grovedale (A) – L

R15 – Bell Park (H) – L

R16 – Geelong West (A) – L

R17 – St Joseph’s (H) – L

R18 – St Albans (H) – W

Predicted finish: 10th (3-15)

Lara has a good opportunity to win two in a row against North Shore with Devon Smith back and firing. But the Seagulls accounted for them easily last time and are coming off a week’s rest. At their best they can beat Grovedale, while they have the chance the close out 2024 with a win against the Supersaints.

11. North Shore (2-9, 49.5%)

R12 – Lara (A) – W

R13 – St Joseph’s (A) – L

R14 – Bell Park (H) – L

R15 – St Mary’s (A) – L

R16 – Newtown & Chillwell (H) – L

R17 – Leopold (A) – L

R18 – Grovedale (A) – L

Predicted finish: 11th (3-15)

North Shore outlasted Lara last time and should enter favourites against a Mitch Day-less Lara. Outside of that, they are every chance of knocking off Grovedale in the final round.

12. St Albans (0-11, 23.4%)

R12 – St Joseph’s (A) – L

R13 – Bell Park (A) – L

R14 – Newtown & Chillwell (H) – L

R15 – Colac (H) – L

R16 – Leopold (A) – L

R17 – St Mary’s (A) – L

R18 – Lara (A) – L

Predicted finish: 12th (0-18)

St Albans’ rough fixture has been well documented and it doesn’t get any easier in the next six weeks. They agonisingly close to Lara on the weekend and beat them in the run home last year. Hopefully the Supersaints can break through for their first win in the final round.

Originally published as Predicted ladder: Every GFNL result in the run home predicted