Geelong council seeks federal funding as Libby Coker and Darcy Dunstan court Corangamite voters
As the unofficial federal election campaign ramps up, “political grievance is bubbling to the surface” in Corangamite as Labor faces a challenge to hold the crucial seat.
Geelong
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Geelong council has laid out its federal funding wishlist in the crucial seat of Corangamite, as Labor insiders reveal nervousness about Libby Coker’s chances of securing a third term.
With the unofficial federal campaign well underway, the priority projects being pushed by City Hall include $38m of flood mitigation works in Clifton Springs and the $30m extension of Peninsula Drive to Belchers Rd in Drysdale.
Sport and recreation upgrades on the Bellarine also feature prominently.
Among these is the $10m delivery of the Devlins Road Reserve masterplan, $6.2m upgrade of Barwon Heads Village Park, and the completion of pavilion redevelopments at St Leonards Lake Reserve and Portarlington Recreation Reserve.
Mayor Stretch Kontelj said the wishlist, while still to be formally endorsed, was shaped by extensive community engagement.
“The city has always enjoyed great working relationships with our federal representatives, (and) as the fastest growing region in Australia, additional funding is vital so that our infrastructure keeps pace with population growth,” he said.
The redevelopment of netball courts at Burdoo Reserve in Grovedale, further works at Waurn Ponds skate park, and improvements of Grinter Reserve’s BMX facilities also make the list.
Corangamite state of play
“Too close to call” was the verdict in a report from Accent Research and Redbridge Group, released in early December, that found Labor just two points ahead on a two-party preferred basis.
It was a clear shift from the “Labor retain” label and 57-43 result contained within a corresponding report six months earlier.
Redbridge’s Kos Samaras, a former deputy campaign director for Labor in Victoria, says the issues moving the dial in Corangamite are also playing out in regional NSW seats.
“Corangamite has significant pockets of suburbs that are experiencing acute mortgage stress, and financial stress,” he says.
“For most of 2023, these households were able to sustain interest rate rises … but clearly a lot of households are now running out of steam and we’re seeing, what I would call, political grievance bubbling to the surface.”
Mr Samaras says the seat is definitely in play for the Liberal Party and its candidate, Darcy Dunstan, despite Ms Coker increasing her margin to 7.6 per cent at the 2022 election.
A boundary redraw has notionally increased that to 7.9 per cent, yet multiple Labor sources, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said concern among local party members on whether the seat will be retained was bubbling away.
Views varied on whether there’d be blowback from the Darren Cheeseman debacle that saw Labor boot the state MP from its ranks.
His South Barwon electorate overlaps with Corangamite and Ms Coker was pictured regularly with him at local events.
“Only to a very small degree,” one said, while another suggested there would be “a bit of anti-Cheeseman backlash”.
All agreed the campaign, ahead of an election that must be held by May 17, will be the deciding factor.
“The Labor ground campaign in Corangamite has always been much better than anything the Liberals do there,” one Labor member observed.
“If they can get their act together on the ground in Corangamite, they’ll be a lot closer to victory.”
Mr Samaras says Corangamite residents can expect multiple visits from the Prime Minister and Opposition leader Peter Dutton.
“Federal Labor will have to do something it has not done in 20 years and that’s pay attention electoral attention to Victoria,” he says.
“As a former party official, I can tell that Victoria has always been treated as a secondary concern, but it’s now a primary concern.”
The candidates
Asked what the main issue she was hearing from voters, Ms Coker cited a range of topics, including cost of living.
“Australians were going backwards when we came to office because of higher and rising inflation and falling real wages under the Liberals,” she said.
“We’ve made some good progress, but we know people are still under pressure and there’s more work to do.
“Australians would be worse off without our tax cuts and energy bill relief, and they’d be worse off under the Liberals.”
Posed with the same question, Mr Dunstan, who spent this week doorknocking Armstrong Creek homes, nominated energy prices and mortgage stress.
“This is deeply personal for me,” the former SAS soldier said.
“I got into politics last year because I was tired of seeing my mum working hard all week at a hardware shop but unable to pay her power bills.
“It’s time for less political talk. Too many people are doing it tough, their needs must come first.”
Amid a global trend away from the “establishment”, for lack of a better term, Liberal sources say Mr Dunstan’s political inexperience may work in his favour.
“He’s seen as a bit of a Rolls Royce (candidate),” one said.
While predicting a narrow victory for Ms Coker, one Labor insider agreed.
“He (Dunstan) is squeaky clean and has zero negatives,” they said.
The preferences of the Greens, whose primary vote jumped from 9 per cent to 15.2 per cent in 2022, could be a key factor in who claims victory.
A drop in support is expected, but where those votes go will be crucial.
The left-wing party unveiled Mitch Pope as its candidate this week.
Unsurprisingly, the Otway Coastal Environment Action Network campaigner slammed the major parties for a lack of action on several fronts.
“A vote for the Greens is a vote for someone who understands and cares about this community, instead of a backbencher who will vote in the interests of their party,” he said.
Final word
Mr Samaras says securing Corangamite is not a must for the Coalition to form government and not one of the people spoken to for this article said it was favourite to do so.
But that it’s become much more of a contest than initially expected doesn’t augur well for Labor nationally.
“They’ve basically approached government with a managerial approach, which is not what the Australian public is looking for at the moment,” Mr Samaras says.
“You look at Labor’s slogan of ‘building Australia’s future’ and they’re going to have to convince people they’ve got a plan for that, let’s see if they can do it, they’ll be absolute masterminds if they can pull it off.”
Analysis
If a week is a long time in politics, 10 months is an eternity.
In March last year, people who make their money from assessing the political landscape suggested Labor was an almost unbackable favourite to retain Corangamite.
Libby Coker has held the ever-shrinking seat since 2019, increasing the margin from 1.1 per cent to its current 7.6 per cent.
Fast forward to the present and there are nerves aplenty.
While a Labor victory remains the most likely outcome, the fact it is in play must concern supporters.
Global, national and local issues are all having an effect.
As evidenced in Europe and beyond, parties on the left of the political spectrum are battling a rising tide of right-wing populism.
Closer to home, the Albanese government has largely been uninspiring in nature, seemingly unwilling to take risks, scarred by the comprehensive defeat of the Voice referendum.
In Corangamite, financial stress facing households that have experienced 12 interest rate rises since Labor came to power is hurting like never before.
People are looking to vent their frustration and “political grievance is bubbling to the surface”, as former Labor campaigner Kos Samaras puts it.
The major parties’ candidates, whose backgrounds could not be more different, argue they are best placed to tackle the issue, but incumbency, as we have seen, is not favourable in this instance.
Whatever the result may be, you certainly wouldn’t want to put your (highly indebted) house on it.
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