Finals ramifications and predicted top four for every GCA and BPCA first grade competition ahead of blockbuster final day

We are halfway through the last round of the home-and-away season and there are a host of sides at risk of dropping finals spots. See how things stand in every first grade comp.

Highton has the chance to jump into the top four. Picture: Wes Cusworth

A defining weekend of matches has set up a grandstand finish to the Geelong and Bellarine Peninsula cricket seasons.

Finals spots will be won and lost in the last day of the the home-and-away season next weekend and other sides have the chance to secure home finals.

Even rising from third to second could have a major say on a club’s flag hopes, with GCA competitions offering double chance for sides who finish first and second this season.

See the finals ramifications for every first grade competition and our predictions.

GCA1 1st XI

St Peter’s and Highton both have finals defining chases next weekend in what shapes as a thrilling finish to the GCA’s top flight. The fourth-placed Saints – just 0.2 points ahead – face a difficult task of reaching 272 against reigning premiers North Geelong, while Highton is 0-2 in pursuit of 231 in their clash with St Joseph’s. For St Joseph’s to rise from sixth to fourth, it would have to knock off Highton outright and St Peter’s would also have to lose. If North Geelong win and bottom of the ladder South Barwon upset Newtown & Chillwell, the Magpies will take top spot.

PREDICTED TOUR FOUR

1. Newtown & Chillwell

2. North Geelong

3. Grovedale

4. Highton (currently fifth)

Predicted first week of finals: Newtown & Chillwell v North Geelong, Grovedale v Highton.

Highton's Brady Somers in action. His side has the chance to jump into the top four. Picture: Wes Cusworth

GCA2 1ST XI

Lara is 22 points clear on top spot but below that there is only 12 points separating second and fifth. Bell Post (fifth) appear to be out of the running barring a major collapse with Bell Park only needing another 69 runs with eight wickets in hand. With second-placed Murgheboluc defending 219 against Geelong City, the Dragons can leapfrog the Frogs and secure a double chance if they and the Sharks get up. Murgheboluc is just 0.58 points ahead of Bell Park and the Dragons have a 0.148 better net run rate, so if both sides win, it will come down to bonus points secured in the final round. As it stands, the Dragons have already earned 1.376 points against Bell Post Hill, while Murgheboluc has 0.872 against Geelong City, a difference of 0.504. In simple terms, it is very tight. Bell Park can pile on the runs to earn more bonus to edge ahead and that might just secure them a double chance. You wouldn’t bet on Lara ending its undefeated run with 173 more runs to get with 10 wickets in hand next week against Torquay, but if the Tigers do cause an upset, they could jump to third with bonus points if Murgheboluc or Bell Park lose. In a very unlikely scenario, if both lose and Torquay wins significantly, the Tigers could finish second.

PREDICTED TOP FOUR

1. Lara

2. Bell Park (currently third)

3. Murgheboluc (currently second)

4. Torquay

Predicted first week of finals: Lara v Bell Park, Murgheboluc v Torquay

Lara bowler Casey Young. Picture: Mark Wilson

GCA3 1st XI

The top four looks all but locked in barring an unlikely Corio outright win over Thomson, but there could still be a shuffle of spots. The most likely change is Waurn Ponds edging into third ahead of the Marshall Bears, needing to chase down a gettable 191 against the Bears to go ahead. However, the Bears have the whip hand given they are six points and 0.2 ahead on net run rate, so the Eagles will have to win without losing many wickets. Thomson is nine points clear on top and Alexander Thomson look set to hold onto second place after making a mammoth total of 386 against Bannockburn. But in the event Thomson is unable to chase 319 against Corio and Alexander Thomson win outright, the Viking will claim first spot. If the Bulls somehow make 387 and Marshall Bears win well against fourth-placed Waurn Ponds Deakin, the Bears could jump into second and the Vikings would slide to third.

PREDICTED TOP FOUR

1. Thomson

2. Alexander Thomson

3. Marshall Bears

4. Waurn Ponds Deakin

Semi-finals: Thomson v Alexander Thomson, Marshall Bears v Waurn Ponds Deakin

Marshall and Thomson are on the way to finals. Picture: Mark Wilson

GCA4 1ST XI

Little River claimed top spot on Saturday after it defeated Teesdale and Meredith was convincingly beaten by nine wickets Lethbridge. It means Little River is three points ahead of Meredith entering the final round, with the Redbacks facing last placed St Albans Breakwater and the Rams up against Teesdale (sixth). Meredith will be hoping for a Saints upset to claim the minor premiership. The finals hopes of Guild St Mary’s are over despite a win over fourth-placed Newcomb & District, who will remain in fourth even if the Dinos lose to Lethbridge next weekend.

PREDICTED TOP FOUR

1. Little River

2. Meredith

3. Lethbridge

4. Newcomb

First week finals: Little River v Meredith, Lethbridge v Newcomb & District

BPCA A1

It has felt like every game has had finals ramifications this BPCA season and the final round is evidence of that, with three points separating Armstrong Creek in first and Barwon Heads in third, and nine points between fourth and eighth. Barrabool is in danger of dropping fourth spot to Queenscliff, who is 0-52 in pursuit of 210. But fifth-placed Jan Juc will likely need to knock off reigning premiers Barwon Heads to make the finals, requiring 221 on its home turf next week and a Barrabool loss. However, a heavy Barrabool defeat could see Jan Juc slide into fourth with a loss on net run rate, with the Bulls’ quotient at 1.1 and Jan Juc’s at 0.9 going into round 14. Armstrong Creek appears likely to secure the minor premiership with Ocean Grove at 8-144, but Anglesea is in trouble of dropping from second to third after a late collapse on Saturday. The Roos are 4-6 chasing 200 after Drysdale opening bowler David Sykes ripped through the top order with 4-0. Barwon Heads can pinch second spot if it knocks off Jan Juc and Anglesea suffers defeat, but if the Seagulls and Roos both win or lose, Anglesea’s superior net run rate will see them finish second. Plenty on the line.

PREDICTED TOP FOUR/SEMI FINALS

1. Armstrong Creek

2. Barwon Heads (currently third)

3. Anglesea (currently second)

4. Barrabool

Predicted semi-finals: Armstrong Creek v Barrabool, Barwon Heads v Anglesea

Queenscliff has caused a stir after rolling Barrabool. Picture: Mark Wilson

BPCA A2

A play-in clash between Portarlington and Surf Coast will decide fourth spot and the Demons have the upper hand after setting the Suns 260 for victory at home. Collendina has already secured victory over St Leonards and may rise to second if Winchelsea chases down Inverleigh’s 211-run target, but the Blues are already 1-2. Wallington has first place all but sewn up after amassing 368 runs against Newcomb.

PREDICTED TOP FOUR/SEMI FINALS

1. Wallington

2. Inverleigh

3. Collendina

4. Portarlington

Predicted semi-finals: Wallington v Portarlington, Inverleigh v Collendina

Originally published as Finals ramifications and predicted top four for every GCA and BPCA first grade competition ahead of blockbuster final day