Experts split on NT election outcome as Opposition Leader casts early vote

Opposition Leader Lia Finocchiaro has cast an early ballot in the NT election, calling on Territorians to ‘vote for change’. But just how much change can be expected on August 24?

Opposition Leader Lia Finocchiaro has called on Territorians to “vote for change” as she cast her ballot in the Northern Territory election, while experts remain divided on just how much change August 24 is likely to bring.

Foregoing the usual election day-ceremony, Mrs Finocchiaro joined a record number of Territorians choosing to vote early.

More than 48,000 votes had been cast by close of polls on Saturday, meaning a third of the electorate had already made up their minds ahead of Mrs Finocchiaro and Chief Minister Eva Lawler’s clash at the Sky News NT Leaders’ Debate on Tuesday afternoon.

Opposition Leader Lia Finocchiaro has cast an early ballot in the 2024 NT general election.

With less than a week until Territorians polls close, both Labor and the CLP are hoping for a win.

Veteran analyst of NT politics Rolf Gerritsen predicted a change in government, with the CLP picking up five or six seats.

He said there could be a situation where the conservative party failed to reach the 13 seats needed for an outright majority, forcing it to rely on friendly independents such as Robyn Lambley to form government.

“The election will be decided in the Greater Darwin region, I don’t see any seats changing hands in electorates from Katherine south,” Professor Gerritsen said.

“There’s a swing to the CLP, but the question is, is the swing uniform? Is it large enough to upset Labor? The swings could come in surprising places, and I think some northern suburb seats which previously had large margins for Labor could be in play.

“Crime is a sleeper issue at this election, and some areas of the northern suburbs are crime central. People don’t necessarily talk about it to pollsters or door-knockers because they don’t want to be labelled racist.”

Dr Nathan Franklin.

Professor Rolf Gerritsen.

Charles Darwin University political expert Nathan Franklin also predicted the CLP would pick up one or two seats but said Labor would hold power, with a reduced margin.

“It won’t be like 2016 or 2020 when Labor’s first preferences were at 60-odd per cent, but they will hold majority government,” Dr Franklin said.

“Lia Finocchiaro is doing an okay job, but I just don’t think she’s cutting through. She probably would have done better if she was up against Natasha Fyles, but I think Eva Lawler has stabilized the ship.

“Crime is an issue, and nobody likes it, but I don’t think the CLP has the right answers.”

He said both major party’s election commitments had been disappointing: “a lot of ‘I’ll do what they do’ rather than real alternative visions”.

“The CLP should be winning points on things like how much debt has grown - $1bn for every year of Labor - but they’re probably scared to hint at austerity measures.”

Dr Franklin said Mrs Finocchiaro should be commended for rebuilding the CLP from its wipeout loss in 2016, and it was good to see the party “trying something different” with a more diverse team of candidates than previously seen.

Chief Minister Eva Lawler. Picture: Pema Tamang Pakhrin

Mrs Finocchiaro said “this will be a turning point election”.

“Territorians in six days time, will have made their choice about the future direction of the Northern Territory,” she said.

“As voters turn out in their thousands, protesting against what has been a tumultuous eight years under Labor – where the economy has gone backwards, crime is out of control and our lifestyle has been eroded – we know that it’s an important choice people make as they place their vote, to vote for change for the better.”

Mrs Lawler, who is expected to cast her own ballot on Saturday as historically done, backed her government’s track record.

“Lowering crime and improving community safety is my top priority and I am taking a common sense and practical approach to making that happen,” she said.

“Saying simple slogans won’t reduce crime – only hard work and taking a common sense approach will get results.”

Originally published as Experts split on NT election outcome as Opposition Leader casts early vote