Experts give view on what happens next with AUKUS deal

Experts have given their view on what happens next with Australia’s subs deal with the US, and flagged the warning we all missed.

Pictured is Donald Trump and Anthony Albanese.

The AUKUS submarine pact is likely to survive a White House review of the agreement, experts have said, while also warning that in a dangerous world Australia should heed US President Donald Trump’s calls to spend more on defence.

“I don’t think this is a decision that’s happened just this week,” said naval and submarine warfare expert Jennifer Parker, an academic at the ANU’s National Security College.

“If you look back to the Shangri-La dialogue (in Singapore) two weeks ago, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth gave a pretty significant speech about allies and co-operation where he talked a lot about co-operation with Australia.

“The one thing he did not mention was AUKUS.”

Parker said that it seemed “strange at the time” but says that the Trump administration’s review of AUKUS is “probably because (the Pentagon) has announced that they are going to bring forward next year’s National Defence Strategy to this year.”

“People might read too much into the idea that this is an overnight decision in response to sanctions on Israeli politicians or defence spending, but I think it has been in train for a while.”

“We don’t know, but it could actually be a good thing if the review streamlines some of the challenges, it could break down barriers and that could be a positive thing.”

“I don’t think the US will cancel the deal, the US needs Australia.”

President Donald Trump speaks with reporters in the Oval Office of the the White House. Picture: AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Dr Malcolm Davis, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute agreed, saying that Australia “should not be surprised” by the review but added that Canberra needed to take America’s calls to increase defence spending seriously.

“I think that when and if the prime minister does meet with the president he will get a strong message from Trump and Hegseth that we need to burden share to a greater degree, and that would mean lifting our defence spending up to between three and 3.5 per cent of GDP as soon as possible.

“But as to AUKUS itself, I think the Americans understand there’s benefits for them as well as us, and I think what you will see is AUKUS come out of this review intact.”

President Donald Trump speaks with reporters in the Oval Office of the the White House. Picture: AP Photo/Evan Vucci

However, Davis also warned that whatever the nation’s defence budget, Canberra needed to urgently invest in making sure the ADF was fighting fit to engage in a sustained conflict.

“I would certainly invest in readiness, preparedness, resilience and sustainability as four broad areas.”

“The strategic risk is in the here and now, not in the next decade and we are not resilient to attacks by China against our critical energy, infrastructure and communications systems.”

Davis said Australia should work on hardening air bases with shelters for aircraft to prevent them being taken out by drone attacks, as occurred when Ukraine attacked Russian air bases earlier this month.

“A lot of our bases and radar installations were built during a time when we never faced any threat, but those times have gone.”

Originally published as Experts give view on what happens next with AUKUS deal