Warning to federal Labor Party after Victorian by-elections

A former political strategist has warned Labor MPs in formerly safe seats should be preparing for “retirement” after the Victorian by-elections.

Federal Labor has the same lessons to learn as Victorian Labor following two state by-elections, a former Victorian Labor strategist has warned.

As of Sunday afternoon, Victorian Labor is just ahead of the Liberals in the race for the state seat of Werribee in Melbourne’s greater southwest.

Formerly a safe Labor seat with deep working class roots, fewer than 450 votes separated the parties’ candidates.

Kos Samaras, who spent more than a decade working on Victorian Labor campaigns, said there was no longer a so-called “red wall” but instead a “red barb wire fence”.

Major polls have shown the Albanese government is facing a tough fight in the looming federal election. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

“Labor has just recorded its lowest primary vote in a seat they have held at any by-election in Victoria’s *history,” Mr Samaras posted on X.

“If I were a Labor MP sitting in what was once a safe seat, I’d be doing one of two things: planning my retirement or treating my electorate as a critical marginal.”

Mr Samaras said the only “silver lining for Labor” was that the Liberal Party was disliked more in “in Melbourne’s growth corridors”.

“But for the Liberals, the challenge is now undeniable, they are hitting a demographic wall that must be overcome, and fast,” he said.

“Winning 17 seats without breaking through in these parts of Melbourne will be very very difficult.

“Of course, the Liberals’ task may end up being much easier if some in Labor continue burying their heads in the sand over their deepening disconnect with their base.

“A special shoutout to those who dismissed the warnings over the years, you now share responsibility for the mess that comes with losing a once-loyal political voter base.”

Labor did not even put up a candidate in the inner-Melbourne seat of Prahran, which the Greens have conceded to the Liberals.

Mr Samaras’ assessment also rang true to Amy Remeikis, chief political analyst at the Australia Institute.

Australia Institute chief political analyst Amy Remeikis says ‘anger’ at anger at the Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan’s government is largely to blame. Picture: NewsWire / David Geraghty

She told NewsWire that while it was a “fool’s game to take a by-election and apply it to a general election”, she said that “the result would have federal Labor worried”.

“The Liberals are obviously improving their electoral fortunes in Victoria and Labor can no longer take Victoria for granted – although much of this looks like anger at the Allan government, which would also be worried by these results,” Ms Remeikas said.

She said it only added to the likelihood of federal Labor returning to govern in minority — as polls have indicated for several months.

Ms Remeikis also said waning political engagement was at the core of the results.

She said there was “a lot going on in the world and in a cost of living crisis, people are just trying to survive the best they can” and there “doesn’t seem to be a lot to get inspired about”.

It is unclear when Anthony Albanese will call the federal election, but the deadline for doing so is May 17.

Originally published as Warning to federal Labor Party after Victorian by-elections