Simon Holmes a Court tips potential win in 23 out of 35 seats backed by Climate 200

A rich-lister believes at least 23 out of the 35 candidates backed by his Climate 200 group have a “very good” chance of winning at the federal election.

Climate 200 millionaire backer Simon Holmes a Court says early polling reveals 23 of the 35 seats eyed by the political funding outfit are in reach of being won by an independent candidate.

The clean energy advocate made the claims based on polling conducted in 19 of the 26 new seats during a speech to the National Press Club on Wednesday.

Additionally, polling in all nine incumbent independent seats backed by Climate 200 revealed the opponent was “in the danger zone”.

“We have polled 19 of those seats in the last few weeks and in 14 of those 19, the opponent is in that danger zone,” Mr Holmes a Court said.

“It doesn’t mean that the campaign is a win, but if they run a really good campaign, if nobody stuffs up and they get that strong community support … there is a very good chance those campaigns can win.”

Simon Holmes a Court says Climate 200-backed candidates are in good shape. Picture: Josie Hayden

Mr Holmes a Court also ruled out any intention of registering Climate 200 as a political party despite criticism of the electoral reform set to come into effect in 2026 after this year’s election.

The incoming rules will severely cap campaign spending by independents to effectively $800,000 per electorate, while registered parties will be allowed a national cap of $90m.

“I have zero interest in being involved in any party structure. I can’t see how it would actually benefit Climate 200 and I am not sure that any of the independents would want anything to do with it,” he said.

“I don’t think any of them would join a party – if such a thing ever happened, it would be long after I have left.”

Ahead of the federal election, due by May 17, Climate 200 has backed 35 local community candidates, including nine sitting MPs made up of prominent Teal independents Kate Chaney (Curtin), Monique Ryan (Kooyong), Sophie Scamps (Mackellar), Zoe Daniels (Goldstein), Allegra Spender (Wentworth), Zali Steggall (Warringah), plus Helen Haines (Indi), Rebekha Sharkie (Mayo) and Andrew Wilkie (Clarke).

Four of the 26 new candidates are contesting seats held by Labor – Gilmore, Franklin, Bean and Solomon, with 19 candidates running against Coalition incumbents, including local environmental campaigner Ellie Smith in Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson in Queensland.

The remaining three seats targeted by Climate 200-backed candidates, Calare, Moore and Monash, held by Andrew Gee, Ian Goodenough and Russell Broadbent respectively, are technically independent; however, all three MPs were part of the Coalition before resigning to the crossbench.

Independent candidate Ellie Smith is running against Peter Dutton. Picture: Liam Kidston

Holmes a Court tips minority surge

Eyeing up voting trends, Mr Holmes a Court also said voters fed up with “Labor’s timidity” and the “Coalition’s relentless negativity” will increasingly turn to community independent candidates, crediting it as the “fastest-growing political movement” in Australia.

“We haven’t seen vitality like this in Australian democracy for decades. Some might argue we’ve never seen anything like it,” he said.

“Most of the independent candidates are running in previously safe seats – seats that have long been taken for granted by the major parties. This is a big upgrade to our democracy.”

Analysis by the Australian National University following the 2022 federal election found nearly one in three voters supported the minor or independent candidates, while primary votes for the major parties dropped to “historic lows”.

Study co-author Ian McAllister tipped that support “for independents and minor parties will only continue to grow”.

However, Mr Holmes a Court sought to distance both himself and Climate 200’s role in the independent movement, saying they merely help candidates to compete against the major parties in a “tilted” playing field.

“Climate 200 did not start this movement. We didn’t create it,” he said.

“Nor am I speaking for the community independents movement. I am simply someone who understands its power and its potential.”

Climate 200 will aim to increase the number of pro-climate independent candidates from nine to 35 in the upcoming election. Picture: NewsWire/ Martin Ollman

Using the example of Climate 200-backed candidate and former Triple J presenter Alex Dyson in Liberal frontbencher Dan Tehan’s seat of Wannon, he said independents did not have access to the electoral roll or “a small army of taxpayer-funded staffers”.

“In Wannon, if today you donated $1500 to the Liberal MP Dan Tehan, your donation is tax deductible,” he said.

“If today you were to donate to the independent opponent Alex Dyson, it’s not deductible.

“The taxpayer has funded more than $750,000 of Dan Tehan’s communication to Wannon residents over the last three years but none of Dyson’s.”

Originally published as Simon Holmes a Court tips potential win in 23 out of 35 seats backed by Climate 200