BFL Run Home: Six blockbusters that will decide finals race

A handful of games will be crucial in deciding who makes the top-five. Who is in trouble? We predict every result in the run home to find out.

See where your club could finish on the BFL ladder.

There are three rounds to go in the Bellarine Football League and the finals race is heating up.

Who will secure double chance, who can sneak into the finals and who might drop out?

We analyse every game from here and reveal the predicted ladder at the end of the home-and-away season.

SCROLL DOWN FOR THE FULL PREDICTED LADDER

1. Torquay

15-0, Points: 60, Percentage: 228.53

R16: Geelong Ammos (H) – W

R17: Drysdale (H) – W

R18: Portarlington (A) – W

Predicted finish: 1st (18-0)

Expect Torquay to remain undefeated and on top at the end of the home-and-away season. A commanding win over Barwon Heads underlined just how strong the Tigers are heading into finals, and while Geelong Ammos and Drysdale aren’t easy match-ups, the leader-leaders are expected to win both. The clash with Portarlington could give them extra opportunity to freshen up players ahead of a premiership assault.

Torquay is set to remain undefeated. Picture: Mark Wilson

2. Barwon Heads

12-3, Points: 48, Percentage: 193.26

R16: Anglesea (A) – W

R17: Queenscliff (H) – W

R18: Newcomb (H) – W

Predicted finish: 2nd (15-3)

The Seagulls suffered their third loss of the season last weekend to Torquay and they have a stern test up against Anglesea away from home. But Barwon Heads will enter favourites this weekend despite its recent defeat, and the club’s next two matches look like certain wins. It all points towards a qualifying-final showdown against Drysdale in week one of the finals, but a loss to the Roos could give Drysdale the chance to edge ahead.

3. Drysdale

11-3-1, Points: 46, Percentage: 140.64

R16: Newcomb (A) – W

R17: Torquay (A) – L

R18: Geelong Ammos (H) – W

Predicted finish: 3rd (13-4-1)

Drysdale remain just two points behind Barwon Heads but still have the ominous Tigers to face in round 17. It would need to win all three games in the run home to have any chance of clinching second spot, and would be relying on Barwon Heads to drop a game. If the Hawks do manage to upset Torquay, the Seagulls would be quivering in their boots ahead of a likely qualifying final showdown against Drysdale.

Matthew Gunn celebrates a goal. Picture: Mark Wilson

4. Anglesea

8-6-1, Points: 34, Percentage: 121.33

R16: Barwon Heads (H) – L

R17: Ocean Grove (H) – W

R18: Modewarre (A) – W

Predicted finish: 4th (10-7-1)

Anglesea likely needs to win two games to cement its finals spot with Geelong Ammos and Modewarre just two points behind, but the Roos have a tough test this weekend up against Barwon Heads. Ocean Grove appears a winnable game in round 17, but their trip to Modewarre in the final round could have serious ramifications for the finals race. While the Roos did defeat the Warriors by 29 points in round seven and are in solid form, anything can happen if finals are on the line for both clubs.

5. Geelong Amateur

8-7, Points: 32, Percentage: 97.62

R16: Torquay (A) – L

R17: Portarlington (H) – W

R18: Drysdale (A) – L

Predicted finish: 6th (9-9)

With Modewarre hot on their heels with two winnable games in the final three rounds, the Ammos are likely to need to pinch a win over Torquay or Drysdale – both away from home – to make finals. Geelong Ammos will also be hunting a percentage boosting win over Portarlington to remain clear of Modewarre if the two clubs finish the home-and-away season on the same number of wins. But an upset loss for Modewarre in the next fortnight will give them some much needed breathing space.

Modewarre is in a good position to pounce. Picture: Mark Wilson

6. Modewarre

8-7, Points: 32, Percentage: 88.70

R16: Ocean Grove (A) – W

R17: Newcomb (H) – W

R18: Anglesea (H) – L

Predicted finish: 5th (10-8)

Two victories in the last three games might just be enough for Modewarre to leapfrog Geelong Ammos and secure a finals berth. Modewarre fans will be watching the results of Geelong Amateur as closely as their own over the next three weeks, as two defeats for the Ammos will give the Warriors the chance to sneak in. The Warriors have two very winnable fixtures against bottom-three opponents Ocean Grove and Newcomb, and a triumph against Anglesea would all but seal a finals spot.

7. Queenscliff

5-10, Points: 20, Percentage: 85.58

R16: Portarlington (A) – W

R17: Barwon Heads (A) – L

R18: Ocean Grove (H) – L

Predicted finish: 7th (6-12)

Queenscliff’s upset defeat to Newcomb – following the resignation of their coach – put even a mathematical chance of finals to bed. But the Coutas should be able to overcome Portarlington this week. Ocean Grove came within three points of Geelong Ammos and the Coutas’ loss to Newcomb suggests they may lose their final-round clash to the Grubbers as well.

8. Ocean Grove

4-11, Points: 16, Percentage: 91.61

R16: Modewarre (H) – L

R17: Anglesea (A) – L

R18: Queenscliff (A) – W

Predicted finish: 8th (5-13)

It’s a difficult last three games for the Grubbers but their narrow loss to Geelong Ammos over the weekend proved they could cause an upset in the run home. On current ladder positions and form, their most likely scalp looks to be Queenscliff, but they could cause a stir elsewhere.

9. Newcomb

3-12, Points: 12, Percentage: 58.00

R16: Drysdale (H) – L

R17: Modewarre (A) – L

R18: Barwon Heads (A) – L

Predicted finish: 9th (3-15)

Newcomb has notched two consecutive wins for the first time in 13 months, but the club faces an uphill battle to claim another victory up against three top-six sides. While their form has improved in recent weeks and they should put up a good fight, all three of their opponents will be desperate get crucial wins against them.

10. Portarlington

0-15, Points: 0, Percentage: 34.27

R16: Queenscliff (H) – L

R17: Geelong Ammos (A) – L

R18: Torquay (H) – L

Predicted finish: (0-18)

Another winless season looms large for Portarlington. Three losses in the run home will stretch their losing streak to 68 matches consecutive matches, unless they can cause a major upset, with the Coutas looking like their best opportunity.

Originally published as BFL Run Home: Six blockbusters that will decide finals race