Ablett the overwhelming Brownlow Medal favourite
THERE is Gary Ablett and then daylight in next year's Brownlow Medal betting market.
THERE is Gary Ablett and then daylight in next year's Brownlow Medal betting market.
The little Geelong master was yesterday installed a clear $6 favourite to win back-to-back medals in the most one-sided book opened in almost a decade.
Not since Nathan Buckley was the red-hot favourite in 2000 has there been such a decisive gap between the early fancy and the chasing pack with TAB Sportsbet.
Last year's runner-up Chris Judd, Hawthorn captain Sam Mitchell and Collingwood ball magnet Dane Swan are behind Ablett, at $13.
The three-game suspension hanging over Judd's head for his infamous eye gouge against the Brisbane Lions has inflated his opening odds out from $9 last December into double figures.
TAB Sportsbet's Gary Davies said Ablett's clear medal favouritism was a reflection of his standing as the AFL's No. 1 player.
Davies said there were signs the sublime midfielder, who is being desperately sought by new club Gold Coast, could become even more dominant next season.
"He was so heavily backed last year and he won convincingly, so there's no reason why he can't do it again next season," Davies said.
"Geelong has only lost Tom Harley from the premiership team and the midfield that helped Ablett win is still intact and, after another year, who is to say it won't get better?
"What we saw this year was teams basically concede he was going to get X number of possessions and just let him run free and focus on stopping other Geelong players.
"That could happen again."
Ablett, 25, just missed winning the Brownlow in 2007-08, but was a runaway winner with 30 votes in this year's count. The midfield weapon tore apart the opposition, averaging 33 touches and nearly one goal a game.
Speaking at last year's medal night, Brisbane captain Jonathan Brown tipped the Cats' dual premiership hero to become a multiple Brownlow winner.
"I don't think this is the last one he will win," Brown said.
"He is probably only just coming into his prime now, and to think that Simon Black is 30 and he's still playing fantastic footy in the midfield.
"If Gary is the same, he is looking at playing some handy footy for the next five or six years, at least."
Five of next season's top-nine medal fancies are from Geelong and St Kilda.
But the betting agency gives a key forward little chance of claiming the medal.
Brown and St Kilda superstar Nick Riewoldt are the top-rating forwards at $26.
Among players who have opened significantly shorter are Magpie Alan Didak ($251 to $34), teammate Swan ($101 to $13) and St Kilda's Nick Dal Santo ($101 to $21).
The sliders include Western Bulldog Adam Cooney ($21 to $51), Hawk Lance Franklin ($13 to $34) and Tiger Ben Cousins ($26 to $101).