Covid vaccines may have contributed to rise in excess deaths, researchers suggest

Covid vaccines may have contributed to a rise in excess deaths observed across the western world since the pandemic, scientists have suggested.

Covid vaccines may have contributed to a rise in excess deaths observed across the western world since the pandemic, including in Australia, scientists have suggested.

That claim has previously been rejected by the Australian government, including the Department of Health and Aged Care and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, as well as independent bodies like the Actuaries Institute, which maintain there is “no credible evidence” supporting such a link.

Vaccines are among a series of factors scientists are investigating as potential causes of excess deaths since the pandemic, including delayed medical treatment due to lockdowns, and the long-lasting damage done to many people by Covid itself.

Researchers from the Netherlands analysed excess all-cause mortality in 47 countries between 2020 and 2022, when there were just under 3.1 million total excess deaths recorded, with the trend continuing “despite the implementation of containment measures and Covid-19 vaccines”.

Writing in the journal BMJ Public Health on Monday, the team from Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam noted that the highest number of excess deaths, 1.26 million, was recorded in 2021 when both containment measures and vaccines were used to tackle the virus.

This is compared with 1.03 million in 2020 prior to the vaccine rollout, and 808,400 in 2022 when most lockdown measures were lifted but vaccination continued.

“This is unprecedented and raises serious concerns,” they wrote.

“During the pandemic, it was emphasised by politicians and the media on a daily basis that every Covid-19 death mattered and every life deserved protection through containment measures and Covid-19 vaccines.

“In the aftermath of the pandemic, the same morale should apply. Every death needs to be acknowledged and accounted for, irrespective of its origin.

“Transparency towards potential lethal drivers is warranted.”

Authorities have denied any link between vaccines and excess deaths. Picture: Frederic J. Brown/AFP

The authors noted previous research “confirmed profound under-reporting of adverse events, including deaths, after immunisation”, and that there was lack of consensus in the medical community “regarding concerns that mRNA vaccines might cause more harm than initially forecasted”.

They pointed to secondary analysis of data from Pfizer and Moderna vaccine trials that previously identified heightened risk of serious adverse events such as ischaemic stroke, acute coronary syndrome and brain haemorrhage, all of which are common clinical conditions.

“This commonality hinders clinical suspicion and consequently its detection as adverse vaccine reactions,” they said.

“Both medical professionals and citizens have reported serious injuries and deaths following vaccination to various official databases in the western world.

“A study comparing adverse event reports to VAERS and EudraVigilance following mRNA Covid-19 vaccines versus influenza vaccines observed a higher risk of serious adverse reactions for Covid-19 vaccines.”

These reactions included cardiovascular diseases, coagulation, haemorrhages, gastrointestinal events and thromboses.

“Numerous studies reported that Covid-19 vaccination may induce myocarditis, pericarditis and auto-immune diseases,” they said.

“Post-mortem examinations have also ascribed myocarditis, encephalitis, immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia, intracranial haemorrhage and diffuse thrombosis to Covid-19 vaccinations.

“The Food and Drug Administration noted in July 2021 that the following potentially serious adverse events of Pfizer vaccines deserve further monitoring and investigation: pulmonary embolism, acute myocardial infarction, immune thrombocytopenia and disseminated intravascular coagulation.”

Concerns have been raised about underreporting of side effects. Picture: Jono Searle/NCA NewsWire

The Dutch researchers argued that “simultaneous onset of excess mortality and Covid-19 vaccination in Germany provides a safety signal warranting further investigation”.

“Despite these concerns, clinical trial data required to further investigate these associations are not shared with the public,” they said. “Autopsies to confirm actual death causes are seldom done.”

The resulting “absence of detailed cause-of-death data” for certain countries made it difficult to determine “whether Covid-19 infection, indirect effects of containment measures, Covid-19 vaccines or other overlooked factors play an underpinning role”.

“Cause-specific mortality data therefore need to be made available to allow more detailed, direct and robust analyses to determine the underlying contributors,” they said.

“Post-mortem examinations need to be facilitated to allot the exact reason for death. Government leaders and policymakers need to thoroughly investigate underlying causes of persistent excess mortality and evaluate their health crisis policies.”

They also suggested it was “likely” that containment measures such as lockdowns, stay-at-home orders, school and business closures, travel restrictions, curfews and quarantine had contributed to the rise in excess deaths, notably via delayed or interrupted medical treatments, but conceded this was hard to prove.

Gordon Wishart, chief medical officer at Check4Cancer and visiting professor of cancer surgery at Anglia Ruskin University, told UK newspaper The Telegraph he had repeatedly warned that delaying cancer diagnosis would lead to deaths.

“It was predicted early in the lockdown period that limited access to healthcare for non-Covid conditions would lead to delays in the diagnosis and treatment of time-critical conditions such as cancer, cardiac disease, diabetes and dementia and that this would lead to excess deaths from these conditions,” he said.

The benefits ‘far outweigh the potential risks’. Picture: Christophe Archambault/AFP

Asked about the potential for vaccine harm suggested by the Dutch researchers, Prof Wishart said the authors “are correct to point out that many vaccine-related serious adverse events may have been unreported, and point to the fact that the simultaneous onset of excess mortality and Covid vaccination in Germany is worthy of further investigation on its own”.

“The paper provides more questions than answers but, it is hard to disagree with their conclusion that further analysis is required to understand the underlying causes of excess mortality to better prepare for the future management of pandemic crises,” he said.

The Australian Senate in March established an inquiry into excess mortality, following several attempts by United Australia Party Senator Ralph Babet to get the probe off the ground. The inquiry, which is due to hand down its final report by August 31, has received detailed submissions from the Australian government rejecting any link between vaccines and excess deaths.

“There is no credible evidence to suggest that Covid-19 vaccines have contributed to excess deaths in Australia or overseas,” the Health Department said in its submission.

“Independent analysis of Australian death data by the Actuaries Institute found that the timing and shape of excess mortality does not support a link to vaccination.”

It noted that a study published in The Lancet in November, commissioned by the department, “confirmed that vaccines protected against Covid-19 death and found no evidence that vaccines contributed to higher all-cause mortality”.

The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) “rigorously assesses all vaccines for safety, quality, and effectiveness before they are supplied”, the submission added.

“Rigorous scientific studies have shown that the protective benefits of vaccination, including Covid-19 vaccination, far outweigh the potential risks, including those of serious but very rare side effects,” it said.

“Vaccination remains the most effective way to reduce severe illness, hospitalisation and death from infection. It has saved many lives in Australia, and around the world.”

Natalie Boyce, 21, died in 2022 after receiving the Moderna vaccine. Picture: Deborah Hamilton

The ABS said in its submission that Covid-associated deaths were the main contributor to excess mortality.

“The ABS data has recorded 16 deaths as being due to the Covid-19 vaccine in the pandemic period,” it said. “There have been nearly 71 million Covid-19 vaccine doses administered to date.”

The Actuaries Institute, which calculates excess mortality differently to the ABS, also concluded that the rise was driven by deaths “from and with Covid-19”.

“The available evidence does not support a significant contribution to excess mortality by the adverse side-effects of Covid-19 vaccines,” it said.

“Indeed, the reverse is true — while every such death is regrettable, it seems clear that the small number of deaths triggered by Covid-19 vaccines is a tiny fraction of the number of Covid-19 deaths that they have prevented.”

Coverse, a charity representing vaccine-injured Australians, said in its submission that while it did not have “statistical evidence that the Covid-19 vaccines have definitely contributed to excess mortality during 2021-2023, we do have evidence of widespread and significant downplaying of vaccine-caused harms, which has concerning implications for current understanding of drivers of excess mortality in Australia”.

“Unfortunately, vaccines are rarely studied for their ‘non-specific effects’ (such as potentially causing) patients to become more susceptible to other diseases,” Coverse said.

“Our government agencies and officials claim that the current excess mortality statistics do not implicate the Covid-19 vaccines as an identifiable driver, yet no studies are being undertaken into such non-specific effects. We imagine that they simply do not want to even consider these types of studies as their reputations are very much tied with the implementation of the Covid-19 vaccines in Australia.”

Originally published as Covid vaccines may have contributed to rise in excess deaths, researchers suggest