Victorian Premier Cricket grand final preview: analysis, predicted XI and expert tips
Analysis of the decider, a predicted look at Carlton and Melbourne’s XI, PLUS, tips from a panel of experts. Here is everything you need to know before watching this weekend’s Premier Cricket grand final.
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It’s grand final week in Premier Cricket and the battle for supremacy between two great clubs is set to gain another chapter.
Will Carlton continue its insatiable desire for success by winning its third First XI premiership in five seasons?
Or will it be Melbourne to overturn some recent finals heartbreak to climb the mountain once again?
HEAD-TO-HEAD THIS SEASON
Round 14 (two-dayer): Carlton won by 33 runs, bowling out Melbourne for 270.
Super Slam grand final: Carlton won by six wickets, chasing down Melbourne’s 9-120 in 17.2 overs.
CARLTON
SEASON RECORD
1st - 12-3-2
LEADING RUN-SCORER
Harrison Smyth - 794 at 66.2, 5 x 50, 2 x 100, HS: 123
LEADING WICKET-TAKER
Xavier Crone - 23 wickets at 23.6, BB: 4-79
WHAT THE CLUB SAYS
“I think we have a lot of players in good nick but it’s all irrelevant on grand final day, it just matters what you do in the big moment,” Carlton’s Evan Gulbis said.
“We have given ourselves an opportunity, so have Melbourne, we both get a 50-50 chance at it.
“They’re going to be a star-studded side we know; we have played them a couple of times this year and done alright, but that means for nothing now.
“They should be supremely confident, they have five or six state players and a Test cricketer, if you can‘t be confident going in with that sort of line-up, you probably don’t deserve to be there.
“They’re going to be a strong team to beat, we have done some strong things ourselves this year and we will concentrate on our stuff.
“We will go about our business, it’ll be a really good game, I don’t think anyone has wood on each other playing at Windy Hill, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens.”
PREDICTED XI
Mackenzie Harvey
The young gun has made 324 runs at a nudge under 30 this summer with two half centuries. This weekend looms as a big opportunity for him to showcase his class and kickstart his career.
Tom Smyth
Melbourne will be aware of the reigning John Scholes medallists exploits on the big stage, as Smyth’s last four finals hits have netted 232 runs at an average of 116.
Harrison Smyth
With 794 runs this summer, there are few sides Smyth didn’t make runs against, but his last innings against Melbourne was a dazzling 123.
Nick Ross
Ross comes into the grand final in extraordinary form after his plucky 122 not out last weekend. He’s made 50 and 30 not out (Super Slam final) in his two matches against Melbourne this year.
Evan Gulbis (c)
Gulbis’ resume in finals speaks for itself. He has been quiet for his standards in recent weeks but, given his thirst for success, that quiet period in the lead up will be more of a reason for concern than promise for Dees coach Ben Vague.
Jai Lemire (wk)
Stands as an x-factor player as his supreme talent with the bat might be hidden beneath the records of the batters above him. With the longer format of the final, Lemire could bat lengthy time if given the opportunity.
Connor Rutland
Rutland plays a selfless role in this Blues outfit and will be looking to improve on a quieter preliminary final.
Xavier Crone
The Victorian quick has chipped away at a sublime season and will be letting it fly on a Windy Hill wicket that usually offers a bit for the seamers early.
Lachlan McKenna
McKenna came into the preliminary side and played his role to perfection, seeing off the final nine overs of play to book a spot in the grand final.
Cameron Stevenson
Like Crone, Stevenson will be nipping the ball around early out at Essendon. You can expect him to come around the wicket with a short ball field again at some point this weekend.
Eddy O’Sullivan
Arguably the Blues’ most important player with the selflessness in which he plays his role. With the longer format, O’Sullivan will park himself at one end for a long period this weekend.
SELECTION TALKING POINT:
Carlton brought in Lachlan McKenna at the expense of Kavisan Thavarajah for the preliminary final and it’s hard to see the Blues flipping on that change this weekend. Although McKenna batted at nine and didn’t bowl, Gulbis also didn’t bowl as illness kept him distant from the crease on day one. While there is extra overs to bowl, there is also extra overs to bat, and McKenna provides further depth with to this line-up while also being a safe set of hands in the slips.
SNAPSHOT
The talk surrounding Melbourne’s returning Victorian players may sway many but it won’t doubt the Blues as the last time these two sides met, the Demons had the same side it will have this weekend (with the exception of Campbell Kellaway for Fergus O’Neill) and still came away winners. While it hasn’t technically claimed victory in their two finals to date, Carlton has only lost 11 wickets across 180 overs of cricket.
MELBOURNE
SEASON RECORD
3rd - 11-1-5
LEADING RUN-SCORER
Blake Thomson - 723 at 51.64, 3 x 50, 2 x 100, HS: 122*
LEADING WICKET-TAKER
Kieran Elliott - 38 at 17.26, BB: 5-53
WHAT THE CLUB SAYS
“Mixed feelings actually,” Melbourne coach Ben Vague said about how he was feeling heading into the decider.
“Obviously excitement is the overwhelming sense that I’m feeling.
“Still some great excitement off the back of the weekend, I think whenever you’re winning the way we did on the weekend, it’s infectious that feeling.
“You don’t really want to let go of it but we got to focus on what’s ahead of us now.
“So feeling amazing after the win but now incredibly excited and determined to get the boys ready to get what I feel they deserve.
“And I know Carlton would say the same thing.
“It’s probably been three years of my coaching at the club where I have witnessed the boys work so hard for this moment.
“We obviously went out in straight sets two years in a row in previous years but this year, I just feel like we are building and peaking at the right time.”
PREDICTED XI
Charles Lill
The Demons batter has hit breakout form at the right time of the season with hundreds in rounds 12 and 14, including a knock of 105 against Carlton. He has scores of 22 and 28 in the finals.
Blake Thomson (c)
Having been out in the middle for the longest of any player this season except for Carlton’s Harrison Smyth, Thomson is sure to be a challenge for opposition bowlers in this game. If the skipper passes 50, he could go on to make a hundred and win the game.
Zane Keighran
With the third highest strike rate out of 33 players who have scored more than 400 runs this season, Keighran could produce quite a destructive innings. Thomas Rogers and Luke Manders are the next fastest scores in the group.
Will Pucovski
This game could come down to Pucovski who has the ability to take this game by storm. The 25-year-old has scores of 18, 28 and 13 in the regular season for the Dees, and knocks of 57 and 45 in finals.
Sam Harper (wk)
It will be a special moment if the Victorian wicketkeeper can win a premiership with his brother Jack at the Dees. It will certainly feel more realistic than when the siblings won a flag in 2019-20, which was interrupted by Covid. Sam has scores of 80, 13 and 54 this season. The half century of 54 came against Carlton in round 14 and he scored 64 in a Super Slam match.
Jack Harper
In a game like this, where his brother is returning to play with many eyeballs watching, Jack will be eager to perform. With a brilliant score of 54 against Ringwood last week, Jack looks prime to put on a show.
Fergus O’Neill
The stylish all-rounder from Kensington will be crucial with the ball and will likely be required for runs with the bat. The 22-year-old has taken a wicket in all 12 premier matches he has played this season. The 12 appearances has seen the medium-fast bowler take 29 wickets. O’Neill has scored more than 20 runs in four of his 10 innings as well.
Jack Prestwidge
You are sure to get a contribution from Prestwidge with bat or ball. The all-rounder is coming off a match-winning 48 against Ringwood last week and will be important with the ball.
Kieran Elliott
No one from either the Blues or Dees has taken more wickets or bowled more maidens than Elliot this season. He will certainly be a key player in their bowling attack, having taken the second most wickets in the competition this season with 38.
Kyle Williamson
Another top performer with the ball this season has been Williamson who has taken 27 wickets. He has the equal-seventh most scalps in the competition. Williamson is ahead of any Blues bowler for wickets taken.
Glenn Hannah
Hannah has been a major player in the Dees bowling line-up this finals series. He took 2-31 against Footscray and 2-36 against Ringwood last week.
SELECTION TALKING POINT:
Melbourne will get back wicketkeeper Sam Harper and bowling all-rounder Fergus O‘Neill from the Victorian Shield side that lost to Western Australia in the final last week. Coach Vague was excited about their return, ensuring the pair would be fit and firing. “When it comes to Ferg and Sam, they are the most passionate and invested MCC people and that’s not just at representative level, that’s at all levels throughout our club so they will have no shortage of motivation to get back on the horse and perform for us on the weekend.” The inclusion of the state pair is set to exclude at least two players from last week’s Demons side which defeated Ringwood by two wickets in a nail-biting preliminary final.
SNAPSHOT
Having finished below the Blues on the ladder, the Demons will need to take 10 wickets to win the premiership. So wickets will be key for the Demons in this game and as the holder of the most dismissals this season, you back them in to bowl out the Blues, particularly with rain falling midweek to spice up the wicket. Faith is with the talented Dees batters to get the job done led by Will Pucovski, Blake Thomson and Sam Harper. If the Dees bat first, they will want a good amount of time to have a crack at the Blues who have several high quality batters in their line-up.
EXPERT TIPS
FAWAD AHMED (Melbourne University leg-spinner)
Winner: Melbourne
John Scholes Medallist: Fergus O’Neill (Melbourne)
EJAAZ ALAVI (Fitzroy Doncaster captain)
Winner: Carlton
John Scholes Medallist: Nick Ross (Carlton)
WILL CARR (Casey South Melbourne coach)
Winner: Melbourne
John Scholes Medallist: Fergus O’Neill (Melbourne)
ASHLEY CHANDRASINGHE (Victorian/Casey South Melbourne batter)
Winner: Melbourne
John Scholes Medallist: Will Pucovski (Melbourne)
PETER DICKSON (Fitzroy Doncaster legend)
Winner: Melbourne
John Scholes Medallist: Blake Thomson (Melbourne)
BRETT FORSYTH (Dandenong captain)
Winner: Melbourne
John Scholes Medallist (BOG): Jack Harper (Melbourne)
JUSTIN GRAHAM (Prahran coach)
Winner: Melbourne
John Scholes Medallist: Kieran Elliott (Melbourne)
DAVID KING (Ringwood captain)
Winner: Carlton
John Scholes Medallist: Tom Smyth (Carlton)
DALE MCDONALD (Footscray coach)
Winner: Carlton
John Scholes Medallist: Xavier Crone (Carlton)
JAMES NANOPOULOS (Frankston Peninsula captain)
Winner: Melbourne
John Scholes Medallist: Fergus O’Neill (Melbourne)
DAMIAN SHANAHAN (Premier Cricket 252 gamer)
Winner: Carlton
John Scholes Medallist: Cameron Stevenson (Carlton)
MAX HATZOGLOU (Leader journalist)
Winner: Melbourne
John Scholes Medallist: Fergus O’Neill (Melbourne)
TYLER LEWIS (Leader journalist)
Winner: Carlton
John Scholes Medallist: Eddy O’Sullivan (Carlton)
BRAYDEN MAY (Leader sports editor)
Winner: Carlton
John Scholes Medallist: Harrison Smyth (Carlton)
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