Statistics prove third place is better than second in Ballarat finals race

The Ballarat Swans claimed second place in BNFL after a last-gasp win over Sebastopol who finish third. But statistics show it could be the Burras who are now better placed for a flag tilt.

“We were really keen to finish top two, it does guarantee you two finals.”

Ballarat Swans coach Joe Carmody is confident his team’s finish in second is the best spot for the side to get grand final success.

The Swans claimed second spot in the final round of the Ballarat Football Netball League season, beating Sebastopol by three points in the battle to decide who finished in second and third.

In a seesawing contest, Ballarat stormed to a 37-point at half-time lead off the back of three goals from former AFL premiership player Josh Gibson.

Sebastopol responded in the third quarter, kicking five goals to none, to reduce the margin to four points at the final break.

The Swans held off the challenge from the Burras in the final quarter to seal the win and claim a top two spot for the first time in more than 13 years.

“It’s been a long process, four years in the making,” Swans coach Joe Carmody said.

“We’ve stuck with the young kids we’ve got there so to see the development and to finish second I’m really wrapped.”

Carmody said the focus for beating the Burras was to control the inside of the contest, which the team managed to do for a prolonged period of time.

“We’ve got lot of respect for Sebas, we knew we had to match them on the inside and then we might be able to do some damage on the outside,” he said.

“The second quarter proved to be correct kicking seven goals to put a gap.

“It was a testament to the boys’ character to win after the Burras fought back.”

Carmody said the team was fully focused on sealing second to making sure it had the double chance heading into the finals.

But statistics show in recent years finishing in second does come with challenges.

In the BFNL the top two face off in the first week to decide who makes the qualifying final in the second week.

The other games see third take on sixth and fourth play fifth in elimination finals.

The highest ranked winner of those two matches face the winner of the top two clash for a spot in the grand final while the loser of the top two clash faces the lowest ranked winner of the elimination final in another elimination final.

The winner of the second week elimination final faces the loser of the qualifying final for a chance to claim the other grand final spot.

In a nutshell a second-place finish gives a team two chances straight up but a team who finishes third can also get two chances.

If the third place finisher wins in week one, it has two chances to make the grand final.

In the past 13 years, according to records, finishing third is better than second.

Third has made the grand final in eight of the 11 completed years with three premiership wins in the time.

Only once, in 2019, has a third-placed team failed to make it out of week one.

This is compared to second placed teams making the grand final six times in the same period for three premiership wins.

Second-placed teams on three occasions have been knocked out in straight sets, losing to the first-placed team in week one before losing to the highest ranked winning elimination team from week one the following week.

Sebastopol coach Mick Searl said while the team was disappointed to not seal second themselves, third can help them win the premiership.

Sebastopol run out before a game this season in the Ballarat Football Netball League. Picture: Red Photos / Adam Cornell

“In some respects you would say it’s good to finish third, six weeks ago we sat in seventh,” he said.

“But we certainly wanted to win and had more scoring shots, more inside 50s (than them).

“That hurt us in the end.

“I would have loved that crack at Melton in the first round.”

Searl said he would be lying if he wasn’t thinking about the double chance on offer if the team beats North Ballarat.

But the focus is on this week.

“We can’t be looking too far ahead,” he said.

“We need to make sure we focus on North Ballarat and both times we’ve been able to bring that pressure for a sustainable period to win both games against them.

“But it’s an entirely new season.

“We need to continue to bring that pressure we’ve brought against North Ballarat previously to win again.”

Sebastopol's Lachlan Cassidy will be pivotal in the teams finals campaign. Picture: Red Photos / Adam Cornell

Sebastopol takes on North Ballarat in the first elimination final with Darley taking on East Point in the other.

Melton takes on Ballarat in the other final, the qualifying final, on Saturday.

Here is how the past 13 years have shaped up in terms of second and third.

2009 – East Point made the grand final from third, winning their first two games in the finals before losing to Redan in the decider. Darley, in second, got knocked out in straight sets.

2010 – Lake Wendouree won the premiership from second, beating Ballarat, in third, in the decider. The Lakers won twice against the Swans after beating the minor premiers in week one.

2011 – Redan won the premiership from third, beating Sunbury, the minor premiers, twice during the finals. Lake Wendouree, in second, got eliminated in straight sets.

2012 – Sunbury won the flag from second, beating minor premiers Redan in the grand final. East Point, in third, made the two qualifying finals for the decider but lost both games to Redan and Sunbury.

2013 – Sunbury made the final after finishing third, losing to North Ballarat, the minor premiers, in the decider. Redan in second made the preliminary final, losing to North Ballarat, after beating the Roosters in week one.

2014 – Ballarat made the grand final from third after beating Redan in the preliminary final, who finished second for the season. Redan lost in the first and third weeks of the finals to miss. North Ballarat won the premiership from first.

2015 – Darley stormed from third to the premiership, winning all matches in the finals. The team defeated the minor premiers in the second week to qualify for the decider before beating North Ballarat, who finished second, in the decider.

2016 – Bacchus Marsh won the premiership from second in 2016, beating Sunbury twice to claim the premiership. The Cobras won in week one over Lake Wendouree to make the qualifying final before beating third placed Sunbury to make the decider.

2017 – Darley won the premiership from third, beating second placed Bacchus Marsh in the decider. Darley won three matches, including beating the Cobras twice, to seal the title.

2018 – Melton, from third place, fell two points short of the premiership after losing to East Point in the decider. North Ballarat, who finished second, was knocked out in straight sets.

2019 – Sebastopol made the grand final from second, falling to East Point who finished the season on top. The Burras lost their first game before winning against Redan and Melton to make it. Darley, who finished third, lost in the first week of the finals.

2020 and 2021 – no season held.