An independent weather forecaster says Melburnians can expect a ‘dog’s breakfast’ summer
WHAT lies ahead for Melbourne’s summer weather? Expect it to be fine, with a chance of rain, hail and sleet with wild electrical storms and a heatwave or two.
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RAIN, hail, sleet and snow — otherwise fine, with a chance of a heatwave and a rash of wild electrical storms.
Confused about what lies ahead in the way of summer weather in Melbourne?
You’re not alone. So is veteran long-range independent weather forecaster Dennis Luke.
Mr Luke, whose forecasts have guided Melbourne Storm, Western Bulldogs and Fox Sports, among others, says the rapid changes and likely frequent storms are going to make it a rough summer and autumn, both for forecasting and for pets.
“The bureau and forecasters agree it’s going to be a hot summer,” Mr Luke said.
“So, why are we getting storms and unseasonal cooler days than normal now?
“It has a lot to do with temperatures in the Indian and Pacific oceans and it’s likely to be something of a dog’s breakfast for everybody trying to forecast from now through to Easter.”
The Hampton Park man said he was confident of an extended period of hotter and colder temperatures producing tropical storms not only to Christmas, but well into the new year.
“It will be difficult enough for us, but it will be harder for our animals — and especially dogs. They will need special consideration. They will instinctively try to escape to somewhere they won’t have to face the terrifying noise of thunder.”
Mr Luke said he also expected sharp differentials in temperatures and rainfall in neighbouring suburbs in the months ahead. “I can see situations where one suburb will be, say, 25C and the next 20C. The hotter one is likely get a full blown rain and electrical storm and the other, virtually nothing. It will be challenging and there will be times of confusion, even among the experts.”
That’s quite a statement, from somebody with a long-term record of 90 per cent accuracy on his 14-day predictions — and without any formal training.
“I put it down to Asperger’s syndrome,” Mr Luke said.
“With Asperger’s everything is black or white; there’s no grey. I don’t have a science or physics degree, it just stares me in the face.”
He said he began developing his forecasting skills more than 15 years ago, when he was working in lawn mowing and decided it would be helpful to predict the weather accurately.
“I studied the patterns over two to three years and found I could do it well and it went from there,” he said.
The Bureau of Meteorology November-January forecast is for below-average rainfall across the southeast. Warmer daytime and overnight temperatures are likely. “The current outlook reflects a combination of a strong El Niño in the Pacific, a decaying positive Indian Ocean Dipole and very warm Indian Ocean temperatures,” the bureau’s website states.