SFNL: Analysis of the Southern league Division 1 run home

Dingley has lost three in a row while Port Melbourne Colts has won each of its last four. Both remain in the hunt for Division 1 silverware. See your clubs run home and predicted finish here.

Just six rounds remain and competition for spots inside the Southern league Division 1 top five have become fierce.

Here is each teams run home – and where they could potentially finish.

1. CHELTENHAM

Played: 12, Won: 11, Lost: 1, Points: 44, Percentage: 168.99

Cheltenham look intent on resurrecting successive grand final defeats, having won each of its 10 matches since its Good Friday hiccup. Only one match stands as a question mark for the Rosellas on the run home, and it’s this weekend. If Des Ryan’s men are able to change the predicted result, they will finish the season with 17 consecutive wins and well clear atop of the Division 1 table.

Myke Cook of Cheltenham runs away with the footy. (Photo by Josh Chadwick)

Josh Fox has a huge role to play for Cheltenham. (Photo by Josh Chadwick)

2. CRANBOURNE

Played: 12, Won: 10, Lost: 2, Points: 40, Percentage: 187.23

Cranbourne has been flying under the radar with the early-season hype surrounding Cheltenham and Dingley. It’s right where the Eagles want to be. The unassuming — but on their day unbeatable — Eagles will finish atop of the table on percentage if they are to beat Cheltenham this Saturday. If that match swings in favour of the Rosellas, the Eagles could finish third but with Port Melbourne Colts on their home track in Round 15, it would take a disastrous finish for them to drop outside of second.

Can Steve O’Brien add more silverware to the Livingstone Reserve trophy cabinet? Picture: AAP/ Chris Eastman

3. SPRINGVALE DISTRICTS

Played: 12, Won: 9, Lost: 3, Points: 36, Percentage: 122.52

Springvale Districts has a trio of ladder-defying matches on the run home. Predicted to win this weekend over Dingley but to lose to Port Melbourne Colts in a month, which plays the dimensions of its ground so perfectly. The Demons will finish inside the five comfortably but potentially just outside the double chance. The two matches with Cheltenham and Cranbourne are great opportunities for Kris Thompson’s men to announce themselves as a serious threat.

*The Demons’ position behind the Colts in this projection is due to the current difference in percentage.*

Port Melbourne Colts coach Josh Caddy. Picture : George Sal

4. PORT MELBOURNE COLTS

Played: 12, Won: 8, Lost: 4, Points: 32, Percentage: 132.55

While the Colts have a difficult run home, a projected win over Springvale Districts in Round 17 has them in fourth position. Granted they will bounce around with their percentage, they should still play finals. With Josh Caddy expected to return after the bye between Round 13 and 14, the Colts will become even stronger.

5. DINGLEY

Played: 12, Won: 8, Lost: 4, Points: 32, Percentage: 114.88

Dingley was eyeing off a potential top-of-the-table finish before its mid-season slump, where it has lost to Cheltenham, Cranbourne and most recently Port Melbourne Colts. While the Dingoes have lost its past three, they are about to welcome back to group that won eight matches in a row between Round 1-9. If the Dingoes are to pinch a win this weekend before the travellers return, they would not need to rely on Cheltenham and Cranbourne to defeat both the Colts and Demons.

Dingley dasher Lachie Lamble is one the Dingoes will welcome back with open arms. Pictures: Jake Marriner/ Jam—visuals

Nathan Freeman strung together three matches of 45 plus disposals before missing the past three.

6. ST PAUL’S MCKINNON

Played: 12, Won: 6, Lost: 6, Points: 24, Percentage: 100.23

A difficult month has put the Bulldogs behind the pack. Losses to Dingley, Springvale Districts, Mordialloc and Cheltenham has pushed them from the fourth and fifth battle to chasing ground outside the five. Some upset wins on the run home could see it give the final spot a shake but if current form is anything to go off, St Paul’s McKinnon should finish in its current position of sixth.

Jordan Formica gets a kick. (Photo by Josh Chadwick)

Nicholas Halliday. (Photo by Josh Chadwick)

7. MORDIALLOC

Played: 12, Won: 3, Lost: 9, Points: 12, Percentage: 73.49

It’s not a finish Mordialloc would have desired at the start of the year but, circumstantially, it’s one the Bloodhounds would have jumped at a month ago. They have been projected wins in the matches with both Chelsea Heights and Bentleigh off the back of Mitch Brown’s current form.

8. CHELSEA HEIGHTS

Played: 12, Won: 2, Lost: 10, Points: 8, Percentage: 66.83

If this is to come to fruition for Chelsea Heights, it would be a tremendous result for its return season to Division 1. Wins on the run home against St Kilda City and Bentleigh should provide hope for the following season. Given a win over Bentleigh in this projection but if the result is to go the opposing way, the Demons would likely finish in ninth on percentage.

9. BENTLEIGH

Played: 12, Won: 2, Lost: 10, Points: 8, Percentage: 62.03

Much like Chelsea Heights, a different result in the upcoming fixture could propel Bentleigh into 8th position. A positive for the Demons is the extreme depth. After winning the under-19 premiership last year, Bentleigh’s reserves side is the clear-cut benchmark with a 10-2 record. Remaining in Division 1 is a huge win for Kristian Bardsley’s men.

10. ST KILDA CITY

Played: 12, Won: 1, Lost: 11, Points: 4, Percentage: 44.07

A disappointing season for the Saints, if they are to collect a win on the back end of the season, it would be a famous triumph. While they will fall into Division 2, it will be a better base to build from.