Run Home: we predict who plays NFNL Division 3 finals in exciting season climax

Seven into five does not go. In what looms a razor tight finish to the NFNL Division 3 season, we attempt to predict every club’s run home and who plays finals.

The predicted NFNL Division 3 run home.

All eyes are on NFNL Division 3.

While it might be the lowest rung, there’s no doubt it’s the hottest competition in the league.

Newcomers Old Paradians and Ivanhoe have proved excellent additions.

Mernda, Fitzroy Stars and Old Eltham Collegians are established powers and with Epping dropping down it’s been must-watch footy every weekend.

Kilmore remains in top-five contention, Heidelberg West and Kinglake are capable of pulling surprises and the likes of Lalor and Reservoir continue to develop competitively.

We’ve analysed every club’s run home to predict the final ladder and likely finals match-ups.

Kyle Mahoney in action for Old Paradians. Picture: Field of View Photography

1. OLD PARADIANS (9-0-2, 153.99%)

Run home: Fitzroy Stars (A), Kilmore (H), Reservoir (H), Lalor (A), Bye, Old Eltham Collegians (A)

Difficulty: 4/10

Prediction: LWWWBL

Finish: Second (12-0-4)

The Raiders have a big challenge this week with fellow premiership aspirant Fitzroy Stars waiting at Sir Doug Nicholls Oval. The last five weeks sees four extremely winnable games. However, we’ve given the Round 18 win to Collegians considering Paradians will likely already be cemented in the top three and the Turtles could be fighting for their finals spot. A top-three spot is the aim and, now that it is a game clear on top, three more wins will easily see that goal accomplished.

2. FITZROY STARS (8-0-2, 158.69)

Run home: Old Paradians (H), Lalor (A), Mernda (H), Reservoir (A), Epping (H), Kilmore (A)

Difficulty: 6/10

Prediction: WWWWWW

Finish: First (14-0-2)

The Stars face a tough run home but have the luxury, if you want to call it that, of playing fellow premiership contenders Old Paradians, Mernda and Epping all at Sir Doug Nicholls Oval. It’s a significant advantage in the race for top spot. That said, in this season’s Division 3 competition, nothing is given and all three of these games could just as easily be losses. Given Fitzroy is now fresh off the bye, it should be cherry ripe for a big run home.

Mernda celebrates a win. Picture: Andy Brownbill

3. MERNDA (8-0-3, 152.78)

Run home: Old Eltham Collegians (H), Kinglake (A), Fitzroy Stars (A), Kilmore (H), Bye, Ivanhoe (H)

Difficulty: 5.5/10

Prediction: WWLWBW

Finish: Third (12-0-4)

The Demons untimely slip up against Epping on Saturday sees them fall from top spot to third but all is not lost. A top-three spot is the minimum aim for last year’s grand finalist and a strong place to launch a premiership campaign. Mernda have a tricky run home with top-five contenders Old Eltham, Fitzroy Stars, Kilmore and Ivanhoe on the schedule. However, three of those matches are at home, which is a big boost.

4. EPPING (7-0-4, 126.62%)

Run home: Kinglake (A), Old Eltham Collegians (A), Bye, Heidelberg West (A), Fitzroy Stars (A), Lalor (H)

Difficulty: 4/10

Prediction: WWBWLW

Finish: Fourth (11-0-5)

If the Pingers can bring the type of performance they delivered against Mernda on a weekly basis, there’s no reason they should lose another game. We’re being realistic and predicting one loss, Fitzroy Stars away, but Epping showed it is a genuine premiership contender on Saturday. Four road games is a difficult run home, especially with trips to Kinglake and Eltham College. However, good teams win anywhere.

Marcel Moran in action for Ivanhoe. Picture: Field of View Photography

5. IVANHOE (7-0-4, 114.42%)

Run home: Heidelberg West (H), Bye, Old Eltham Collegians (H), Kinglake (H), Lalor (A), Mernda (A)

Difficulty: 3/10

Prediction: WBWWWL

Finish: Fifth (11-0-5)

The Hoers can come home with a wet sail with four games at home and three games against clubs outside the top-six. Crucially, the potentially top-five deciding clash against Old Eltham Collegians will be at Ivanhoe Park. Win that and finals are all but locked in, lose it and Ivanhoe faces the challenge of potentially having to defeat Mernda at Mernda to get in.

6. OLD ELTHAM COLLEGIANS (6-0-5, 137.91%)

Run home: Mernda (A), Epping (H), Ivanhoe (A), Bye, Heidelberg West (A), Old Paradians (H)

Difficulty: 7/10

Prediction: LLLBWW

Finish: Sixth (8-0-8)

Fair to say, the Turtles could not have timed their mid-season collapse worse. Five defeats on the trot and now a visit to a Mernda team looking to bounce back after a heavy defeat. All is not lost, even with a defeat this weekend. The home game against Epping and away game against Ivanhoe are season-deciding. Win them both and finals are back on the menu, lose them both and its season over, which would be a significant disappointment after back-to-back preliminary finals and some major off-season recruiting.

Chris Barton in action for Kilmore. Picture: Valeriu Campan

7. KILMORE (6-0-5, 128.35%)

Run home: Bye, Old Paradians (A), Heidelberg West (H), Mernda (A), Kinglake (A), Fitzroy Stars (H)

Difficulty: 6.5/10

Prediction: BLWLLL

Finish: Seventh (7-0-9)

The Blues head to the bye in terrific form, three wins on the trot including a 69-point hammering of Old Eltham Collegians and a 96-point win over Lalor on Saturday. They return with one of the hardest tasks in the competition, Old Paradians at Garvey Oval, and also face Mernda and Fitzroy Stars in the run home. It’s hard to see where the wins come from except for Heidelberg West at Clancy Reserve. Given where it finished last season, Kilmore has done well to be in finals contention at this point in the season.

8. HEIDELBERG WEST (4-0-7, 74.19%)

Run home: Ivanhoe (A), Reservoir (H), Kilmore (A), Epping (H), Old Eltham Collegians (H), Bye

Difficulty: 4/10

Prediction: LWLLLB

Finish: Ninth (5-0-11)

It’s turned into a bit of a rebuilding year at Heidelberg Park but there are certainly some positives to take from the season. The Hawks can certainly finish on a high and very much have the potential the shape the top-five. West faces top-five contenders Ivanhoe, Kilmore, Epping and Old Eltham Collegians. Each of them would be banking on a win but in this season’s competition nothing can be taken for granted and the Hawks are more than capable of pulling off upsets.

9. KINGLAKE (3-0-8, 75.16%)

Run home: Epping (H), Mernda (H), Bye, Ivanhoe (A), Kilmore (H), Reservoir (A)

Difficulty: 5/10

Prediction: LLBLWW

Finish: Eighth (5-0-11)

The Lakers showed what they’re capable of on Saturday with a stirring win over Old Eltham Collegians at Eltham College. After making a splash in its NFNL return last year, the club has been hit hard by injuries and untimely defeats this season. However, it has a big chance to finish strongly, especially with a few key players to return, and can have a big say in who finishes where in the top-five with games against Epping and Mernda at home and Ivanhoe on the road.

10. LALOR (2-0-9, 52.41%)

Run home: Reservoir (A), Fitzroy Stars (H), Bye, Old Paradians (H), Ivanhoe (H), Epping (H)

Difficulty: 6.5/10

Prediction: LLBLLL

Finish: 10th (2-0-14)

While the win-loss column may not necessarily reflect it, it’s been a strong season for Lalor as it rebuilds under Lance Whitnall. The club secured its first win since 2021 and has its first multi-win season since 2019. A win this weekend against Reservoir would be the Bloods first three-win campaign since it dropped out of Division 2 in 2017. We’re predicting Reservoir to ensure every club has at least one win but Lalor enter the game favourites despite struggling in recent weeks.

11. RESERVOIR (0-0-11, 42.42%)

Run home: Lalor (H), Heidelberg West (A), Old Paradians (A), Fitzroy Stars (H), Bye, Kinglake (H)

Difficulty: 5/10

Prediction: WLLLBL

Finish: 11th (1-0-15)

The Mustangs’ grand final arrives this week when they host fellow struggler Lalor. Reservoir came desperately close to knocking off top-five hopeful Ivanhoe on Saturday, showing what its best football is capable of. It might also fancy its chances against Heidelberg West but after that it’s hard to see a win coming in the final month of the season. There’s been positives for new coach Rohan Davies and the club will look to keep building with another off-season.