Analysis: Gippsland, Central Murray and GV among most even competitions in state

An analysis of every country footy league in Victoria has revealed the top-10 most even and uneven competitions this year. We reveal where.

Some of the biggest leagues in the state are strongly represented in the top-10 most even competitions at the halfway mark of the 2024 season.

More thrillers and fewer blowouts are taking place in the Gippsland, Central Murray, Sunraysia, Goulburn Valley and Ovens & Murray leagues this season.

According to data crunched by the countryfootyscores.com.au website, Gippsland is the most even league, with matches decided by an average winning margin of 26.71 points, a tick over four goals.

The statewide average is close to 10 goals and the Millewa and Tallangatta District leagues are the two most lopsided leagues, with average winning margins of 15 goals plus in the first half of the season.

Leongatha coach Trent McMicking. Picture: Yuri Kouzmin

Trent McMicking is coach of Gippsland reigning premier Leongatha, which suffered a shock loss to Morwell and followed up on Sunday by forcing a draw with second-placed Traralgon.

“This year, if you’re slightly off, you lose,” McMicking said.

“In previous years you would’ve had a couple of gimme games where you knew you would win.

“Morwell was a classic case in point.

“It was a windy day, we weren’t up for the fight and they played out of their skin.

“It’s not great for me as a coach, but it’s great for the league.

“It will make it way easier for clubs to recruit next year and we will have to recruit to stay above everyone.”

Bouncing out of Covid, Gippsland clubs recruited strongly.

 Top teams such as Leongatha have been able to retain most of their top-end talent, but other clubs such as Bairnsdale have made a move based on targeting strong-bodied midfielders, according to McMicking.

For almost two decades, Troy Coates has been a player or coach at Central Murray league powerhouse Kerang and said he could not remember a season that has been so close.

“A lot of teams in our league play a pretty defensive style so closer margins are a factor in that,” he said.

“But I’ve got no doubt any team that makes the finals could win the flag this year.

“If it stays like this for the next three or four years I would say (player) points are a factor.

“But it’s too early to tell.”

Kerang coach Troy Coates, left, and captain Josh Nitschke lift the Central Murray premiership cup. Picture: Tracy Roberts

Coates said other clubs sensed Kerang’s sustained run of success was coming to an end and were eyeing off a premiership.

“They’re all seeing a bit of a window opening up,” he said.

“There are also so many coaching courses out there now that coaches are also getting a lot smarter.

“We don’t have the 6, 6, 6 rules in country Victoria so you can coach your side to be a defensive side with your wingers getting back hard, pushing numbers behind the ball, having high half-­forwards to clog stoppages.”

Bendigo is the major league bucking the trend of many of them evening up, with Maryborough exploring another home at the end of this season following a succession of heavy losses headed by a league record defeat of 333 points against Sandhurst.

Eaglehawk was the latest team to record a huge win against Maryborough, with a 185-point win on Saturday.

“It’s a bigger picture than just that game,” Eaglehawk coach Travis Matheson said.

“It’s become very predictable and you could just about tip four winners each week.

“So how do we keep the interest in the league and how do we keep results close and not end up with that scenario?

“That’s the biggest challenge.”

Eaglehawk coach Travis Matheson is concerned the Bendigo league has become very predictable. Picture Yuri Kouzmin

The North East is overly represented in the most uneven leagues, with three of its competitions in the top-five – Tallangatta District, Upper Murray and Ovens & King.

Intervention has been tried and rejected.

Attempts to reduce the number of the teams in the Corowa Cluster that includes two Tallangatta District clubs, Wahgunyah and Rutherglen, and O&M club Corowa-Rutherglen, which has returned from a season in recess this year, fizzled out.

Attempts to merge all Upper Murray league clubs and field one team in the Tallangatta District league were also rejected.

The Ovens & King league has not had a junior competition since 2019.

“It’s a concern from the fact that we would prefer all competitions to be as even as possible,” AFL North-East Border regional manager Zac Hedin said.

“The hard part is often where the clubs are located and what is available to them versus what other clubs in the same league have available to them.

“You do end up with uneven games and uncompetitive games and people can lose interest pretty quickly.

“We don’t necessarily get into reviews or anything like that like we might have five to 10 years ago. We just look to work with clubs on a more individual basis.”

THE STATE OF PLAY

(The 2024 country footy season has reached the unofficial halfway mark being the King’s Birthday long weekend. Some leagues are headed for exciting conclusions in September, but others are experiencing worrying imbalances between top and bottom teams)

TOP 10 MOST EVEN LEAGUES

(Average winning margin)

Gippsland 26.71 points

Geelong District 33 points

Central Murray 33.08 points

Mornington Peninsula Nepean Division One 34.96 points

Bellarine 38.98

Riddell District 39.16 points

Sunraysia 39.31 points

Outer East Premier 39.36 points

Goulburn Valley 39.42 points

Ovens & Murray 39.53 points

TOP 10 MOST UNEVEN LEAGUES

(Average winning margin)

Millewa 94.18 points

Tallangatta District 93.46 points

Upper Murray 81.95 points

Bendigo 80.57 points

Ovens & King 79.04 points

Loddon Valley 77.47 points

Outer East Division One 75.97 points

West Gippsland 74.44 points

Omeo District 72.04 points

Kyabram District 71.62 points

Statewide current average: 56.58 points

TOP FIVE CLOSEST ROUNDS

(Average winning margin)

Upper Murray, round six, 3 points

Colac District, round four, 5 points

Outer East Division One, round three, 13 points

East Gippsland, round three, 13.33 points

Gippsland, round one, 14.2 points

TOP FIVE MOST UNEVEN ROUNDS

(Average winning margin)

Millewa, round four, 162.67 points

Bendigo, round four, 151.75 points

Ovens & King, round three, 147 points

Tallangatta District, round nine, 140.5 points

Upper Murray, round two, 137.6 points

BIGGEST WINNING MARGINS

Waaia def Yarroweyah, Picola District, 338 points

Sandhurst def Maryborough, Bendigo, 333 points

Gol Gol def Meringur, Millewa, 312 points

Kiewa-Sandy Creek def Wahgunyah, Tallangatta District, 310 points

Healesville def Poweltown, Outer East Division One, 280 points

Nar Nar Goon def Bunyip, West Gippsland, 259 points

Gisborne def Maryborough, Bendigo, 258 points

Bambill def Meringur, Millewa, 257 points

Cora Lynn def Bunyiup, West Gippsland, 247 points

Beechworth def Dederang-Mt Beauty, Tallangatta District, 242 points

SOURCE: countryfootyscores.com.au

Leongatha has won the last two premierships in the Gippsland league, but the competition is tightening right up according to coach Trent McMicking. Picture: Yuri Kouzmin

Originally published as Analysis: Gippsland, Central Murray and GV among most even competitions in state