Pressure on Guy to step up as Libs leader
Liberal party insiders fear they’ll be obliterated at the polls next year if Matthew Guy doesn’t return as leader, but is he the one to beat Andrews?
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Word is that embattled Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien isn’t the only high-profile Liberal in Victoria who’s been struggling with sleepless nights.
A succession challenge has been supposedly imminent for several weeks now.
So why has nothing happened, many are wondering.
Lockdown has contributed, with critical meetings needed being impossible under current rules.
But the bigger issue is the successor.
Matthew Guy is the only realistic contender, with colleagues repeatedly pleading for him to jump back into the hot seat, but the former leader has been in a quandary.
First, there is the self-doubt.
He took a fair bruising from Dan Andrews in the 2018 contest after turning up at a dinner at the Lobster Cave with a known mafia figure.
Two heavy beatings might be one too many for a Guy who hates losing.
There is a nagging fear that Dan could be even stronger in 2022, while there are significant concerns the Libs secretariat is just as dysfunctional as it was in the lead up to 2018.
While many have blamed an over-concentration on law and order for their last loss, equal numbers of senior Liberal types say the lack of a co-ordinated campaign with proper backing from the administrative arm, and an advertising campaign to sell the family Guy was just as critical.
People close to him say Matt’s fear is he won’t get that support this time either.
They also worry his family is not convinced they want another round of the endless 20-hour days, media scrutiny and late night phone calls from disgruntled MPs (who think they are owed his time) just so they can whinge about minor issues.
Guy’s colleagues are saying they fear if he doesn’t come back, they could be obliterated.
That means more could lose their seats (and their salaries) and the party could be left with so few members it won’t have a launching pad to even challenge in 2026.
So they need Guy, not necessarily to win in 2022, but to allow them to compete in 2026, maybe with another leader at the helm.
But why would Guy take on all the stress of leading this lot just to lose by a respectable margin and hand over to someone else, perhaps returning former MP John Pesutto?
There is also the issue of finding people for the key roles of chief of staff and communications director, assuming he doesn’t keep O’Brien’s team.
It doesn’t sound like there’s a chance of him doing it.
But he is still torn because of loyalty and love for the party.
If he doesn’t come back and the Libs are destroyed, he wouldn’t be able to bear it.
What would his political future hold?
Maybe fear and duty will pull him back.
As the long night hours drag on, Guy’s mind is swinging like a pendulum, back and forth.
But he’ll need to make up his mind soon.