Who’s set to win and lose at the 2023 Academy Awards

With the 95th Academy Awards just around the corner, Leigh Paatsch reveals his predictions on who will take home a coveted Oscar. See the list and vote in the poll.

The Academy Awards are now just five years away from turning 100.

If this year’s nominations are anything to go by, that famous gold statuette they call Oscar is carrying on like your typical 95-year-old showbiz veteran: creaky, cranky, set in his ways, and in need of a good lie-down.

Catherine Martin, Austin Butler, Olivia DeJonge, Baz Luhrmann and Tom Hanks attend the Australian premiere of ELVIS. Photo: Getty Images

While the Oscars Class of 2023 is by no means the worst in the Academy’s storied history, very few of the winners will be graduating having earned top marks.

In fact, it can be easily argued that the Oscars are no longer a reflection of the best and brightest things that only the movies can do.

Michelle Yeoh attends the 29th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards. Photo: WireImage

A major part of the Oscars’ ongoing relevance problem is the sheer predictability of the event.

Coming at the end of a long chain of awards ceremonies spanning three months or more, the Oscars are incapable of setting any cinematic agenda. All that Academy voters seem to do these days is sheepishly follow whatever trends have already been established earlier in the awards season.

US actor Austin Butler arrives for the 29th Screen Actors Guild Awards. Photo: AFP

Hence we have this years’ Oscars coming down with a pronounced case of Everything Everywhere All At Once Fever. (Australian movie fans beware: the condition could be severe enough to cost our own Cate Blanchett a richly deserved second Best Actress Oscar for Tar.)

Yes, EEAAO is a very memorable movie, but it is also an erratic, scrappy and highly uneven production.

Actors Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, Stephanie Hsu, Jamie Lee Curtis, James Hong, and cast pose with the award for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture for "Everything Everywhere All at Once" during the 29th Screen Actors Guild Awards. Photo: AFP

While just about everybody admires it for tearing up the rule book, most viewers will admit EEAAO struggles to make a meaningful and lasting connection across its lengthy running time.

Everything Everywhere All at Once might win the big one, but it is not the best motion picture of the past year.

Best Performance by an Actor In a Leading Role

Austin Butler in Elvis

Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser in The Whale

Paul Mescal in Aftersun

Bill Nighy in Living

Brendan Fraser as Charlie in The Whale. Picture: Supplied.

Rehearse that fake smile: It is sad that a clear career-best performance from Farrell in the exquisitely excruciating Banshees won’t get him any Oscars glory. His fellow Irishman Mescal is a deadset star of the future, but was lucky to make the grade in such a small, unseen movie. Nighy is always wonderful no matter the motion picture, and Living is no exception. It’s a very fixed, one-note performance however.

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: Fraser has come a long way from lightweight comedies like George of the Jungle to be in this esteemed line-up. His work as a morbidly obese shut-in with one last shot at redemption is the most challenging of all nominees. What hurts his chances is that The Whale did not score a Best Picture nom. No Best Actor winner has triumphed without Best Picture backup since Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart) in 2009.

Brendan Fraser has been praised for his performance in The Whale. Picture: Getty Images

And the Winner Is … Austin Butler. Elvis had its problems, but Butler certainly was not one of them. It was a casting masterstroke by filmmaker Baz Luhrmann to pluck this charismatic all-rounder from total obscurity to play one of the most famous figures of the 20th century. While Butler’s work is not as refined as that of Fraser, it is more universally palatable to undecided voters. This will be enough to get him the win.

Best Performance by an Actor In a Supporting Role

Brendan Gleeson in Banshees on Inisherin

Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans

Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway

Barry Keoghan in Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans. Picture: Supplied.

Hey, it’s a night out, isn’t it?: Tyree Henry has been a secret weapon on screens big and small for quite some time. His work as an auto mechanic struggling with PTSD after a car wreck is exemplary, and deserves the surprise accolade here. In many past years, the veteran Hirsch would be a raging favourite, as Hollywood does love to reward its old campaigners. However, The Fabelmans was hardly his finest hour.

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: Like The Banshees of Inisherin as a whole, the respective efforts of Gleeson and Keoghan were virtually flawless. You couldn’t get two more different roles: Gleeson plays a village grouch with an inexplicable way of ending friendships, while Keoghan is heartbreaking as a village idiot who just wants to make a friend. Unfortunately, vote-getting chances of each is diminished by presence of the other.

And the Winner Is … Ke Huy Quan. The bookmakers have marked the scene-stealing Quan as the hottest favourite of the night. Having won the equivalent category at every other awards show that counts, there’s just no beating the former Goonies star. The Vietnam-born 51-year-old will become just the fifth Asian acting victor in the 95-year history of the Oscars.

Ke Huy Quan attends the 2023 Film Independent Spirit Awards. Photo:Getty Images)

Best Performance by an Actress In a Leading Role

Ana de Armas in Blonde

Cate Blanchett in Tár

Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie

Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Ana de Armas as Marilyn Monroe. Picture: Supplied.

Tell the seat-warmer to go home early: The rapidly improving de Armas gave her all playing screen icon Marilyn Monroe in Blonde. As excellent as she was, the movie was just plain horrible. Similarly, Williams threw herself completely into her role as an oppressed housewife and mother, but the outcome was not to everyone’s taste. After five Oscar noms in 12 years, Williams deserves a change of luck, but it won’t be tonight.

Felix Kammerer in All quiet on the Western Front. Image: Reiner Bajo

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: Riseborough might be a controversial inclusion after so many celebs went out of their way to get her name on the ballot. However, her stunning portrayal of an alcoholic ex-lottery winner genuinely deserved to make the cut. Yeoh is a big street corner tip for EEAAO, and may indeed cause a last-minute upset. However, it will be hype that scores her the win, and not pure performance finesse.

And the Winner Is … Cate Blanchett. The Australian star’s riveting portrayal of an orchestra conductor who uses her fame and fortune as a weapon – not just on others, but ultimately, herself – marks a new career peak for an already highly celebrated talent. The intuitive bravery and clinical precision of Blanchett’s work puts this amid the best performances of the past decade. Should she somehow lose, there is something seriously wrong with the Oscars as a whole.

Cate Blanchett stars as Lydia TÃr. Picture: Supplied

Best Performance by an Actress In a Supporting Role

Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau in The Whale

Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once

Take a selfie to remember the night by: In what shapes as the closest contest of the entire night, the unheralded Chau has the least chance. Which is not to discount her effort in The Whale. Both her light relief and dramatic gravity in key scenes were invaluable in keeping viewers on-side. Hsu toiled hard in a thankless, but pivotal role in EEAAO. Sadly, fellow cast member Curtis will steal votes that might otherwise have been hers.

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: Condon was the glue that held Banshees together at the exact moments it may have fallen apart. Without her, Colin Farrell certainly wouldn’t be in Best Actor calculations. This Irish talent has faint chance of causing an upset. Curtis has come out of nowhere in recent weeks to suddenly be in the running. Her turn as an imposing tax auditor in EEAAO was the true standout of the movie.

And the Winner Is … Angela Bassett. The jury might be still be out on whether Wakanda Forever was as good as many pundits initially thought it was. However, few can dispute just how great Bassett was as the warrior-diplomat Queen Ramonda. Her imperious, yet soulful reading of the character stands as the finest screen performance ever captured in a Marvel superhero movie. Only bad luck beats her.

Angela Bassett as Ramonda in Black Panther. Picture: MARVEL.

Best Achievement in Directing

Todd Field for Tár

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for Everything Everywhere All at Once

Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin

Ruben Ostlund for Triangle of Sadness

Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans

Colin Farrell in Banshees of Inisherin. Picture: Supplied

Forget that speech you memorised: Spielberg might be one of the all-time greats of filmmaking, but clips from The Fabelmans won’t be showing up on his end-of-career highlights reel. The likes of Australia’s Baz Luhrmann (Elvis) and Swiss director Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) can be rightly miffed they didn’t get a look in here while Ruben Ostlund’s unfocused work on Triangle did.

Cate Blanchett pictured on the red carpet at the Cremorne Orpheum for a special screening of her film, TAR. Picture: David Swift

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: Irishman McDonagh is a genius whose best work might still be ahead of him. A big call when you consider how close to perfection his handling of the confronting, yet comforting Banshees proved to be. Field’s unfailingly precise framing of Tar borders on the miraculous when you learn he had not made a movie for over 15 years. Both McDonagh and Field did better work than the likely winner(s).

And the Winner Is … Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert. When it came to EEAAO, this filmmaking dynamic duo certainly left no stone unturned when it came to trying stuff out. The pair’s willingness to swing for the fences with big ideas – and sometimes miss completely – gave their work a fizzed-up, infectious energy not generated by any other nominee here. Oh, and they’ve also won the Directors Guild Award, which has supplied a whopping 66 of the last 75 winners in this category.

Michelle Yeoh and James Hong star in Everything Everywhere All at Once. Photo: Getty Images

Best Motion Picture of the Year

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

Jake Sully, Ronal, and Tonowari in AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER. Photo: 20th Century Studios.

The honour’s all yours, the spoils are all theirs: All too easy to strike out Avatar 2 and Top Gun: Maverick, as massive box-office figures mean nothing come Oscars time. Triangle of Sadness is a bewildering choice. The Fabelmans and Women Talking both have their moments of inspiration, but also sink into periods of prolonged boredom. Boredom was not a problem for Elvis, but coherency was.

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: Tar and The Banshees of Inisherin will both have their fair share of supporters, and will stand the test of time as two of the best movies of the present era (the same fate does not await the overrated EEAAO). Their chances of winning are minimal though. Perhaps only the unforgettably devastating war picture All Quiet on the Western Front can halt the EEAAO juggernaut.

Tom Cruise attends the Royal Film Performance and UK Premiere of "Top Gun: Maverick". Picture: Paramount Pictures

And the Winner Is … Everything Everywhere All at Once. The landslide of support that has been dumped on this heaving hot mess of a movie all through this awards season is a total head-scratcher. While EEAAO’s near-demented determination to shatter any and all filmmaking norms is absolutely admirable, making sense of this rickety cinematic rollercoaster as it dips, swerves and swoops for two dizzying hours is just about impossible. According to everyone in the know, this is already across the line as the big winner of the night. However, it will also go down as one of the weaker, wonkier victors since the Academy Awards began.

Sammy Fabelman (Gabriel LaBelle) and Uncle Boris (Judd Hirsch) in The Fabelmans. Picture: Supplied

THE BEST OF THE REST

Best Screenplay – Original

And the Winner Is … Everything Everywhere All at Once. Credit where credit’s due: the EEAAO blue-printed more audacious and radical new ideas for screen storytelling than any other nominee.

Best Screenplay – Adapted

And the Winner Is … Women Talking. The Miriam Toews novel about a terrifying religious colony was a tough nut to crack, but director Sarah Polley found the right and only way.

Pinocchio (voiced by Gregory Mann) and Count Volpe (voiced by Christoph Waltz). Picture: Netflix

Best Cinematography

And the Winner Is … All Quiet on the Western Front. Inventive camera work and shrewd natural lighting conveyed the horrors of the WWI battlefields in a disarmingly different way.

Best Animated Feature

And the Winner Is … Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. It might be a story done many times before, but never as dazzling, intimidating and touching as this.

Gepetto (voiced by David Bradley) and Pinocchio (voiced by Gregory Mann). Picture: Netflix

Best Documentary Feature

And the Winner Is … Navalny. This gripping doco tracks how former Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny survived a brutal assassination attempt by his own countrymen. (Currently free to view on SBS On Demand).

Best Foreign Language Film: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

Best Original Score: Babylon

Best Original Song: ‘Naatu Naatu’ from RRR

Best Production Design: Babylon

Best Costume Design: Elvis

Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Elvis

Best Sound: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Film Editing: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spike Jonze plays Otto Von Strassberger, Lukas Haas plays George Munn and Robert Clendenin (back) plays Otto's Assistant Director in Babylon from Paramount Pictures. Picture: Supplied.