Oscars 2021: Predictions list for winners at the Academy Awards

The Oscars are finally here. Ahead of the Academy Awards, Leigh Paatsch reveals his predictions for who will win, lose and doesn’t stand a chance.

The Academy Awards might be arriving a few months later than usual, but nothing was going to stop the year’s biggest night for movie fans from celebrating the best in the business.

Ahead of Monday morning’s live telecast, Leigh Paatsch runs a trained eye over the major players and no-hopers in all the categories that matter at the 2021 Academy Awards.

Download your guide to the 2021 Oscars here.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Anthony Hopkins, The Father

Gary Oldman, Mank

Steven Yeun, Minari

Gary Oldman as Herman Mankiewicz and Amanda Seyfried as Marion Davies in Mank. Picture: Netflix

Rehearse that fake smile: Ahmed has quietly gone about amassing a track record of astonishing consistency. If you have any doubts, check out his work in the HBO series The Night Of (streaming on Binge and Foxtel). He’ll win one of these, but not this year. Sound of Metal was too long, too flawed for most voters to watch all the way through. Yeun contributed some nice work to the sublime Minari, but nothing anyone would rave about.

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: Hopkins has the best chance of toppling one of the hottest favourites of the evening. The veteran Brit’s devastating portrayal of a man moving through varying states of dementia required a technical proficiency and emotional honesty beyond most actors. Oldman’s lively and sly depiction of the legendary Hollywood screenwriter Herman Mankiewicz has been unfairly overlooked across the awards season.

And the Winner Is … Chadwick Boseman. After his sad death last August, it still pains many movie fans to refer to Boseman in the past tense. It is not uncharitable to state that because a majority of Oscars voters will feel the same way, a posthumous victory is assured. Pound for pound, his effort as an overconfident, brassy musician is not quite in the same league as Hopkins. But he leaves a legacy that should and will be acknowledged.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami

Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Sacha Baron Cohen as Abbie Hoffman in Netflix's The Trial of the Chicago 7. Picture: Niko Tavernise/Netflix

Hey, it’s a night out, isn’t it?: Just like his Best Actor-nominated colleague Riz Ahmed, the experienced Raci delivered work that was superior in standard to the movie in which it appeared. Odom Jr came up with a blinder as the late, great singer Sam Cooke in One Night in Miami. A shame the movie was dull as dishwater. Nevertheless, you can chalk his name down as a true star in the making.

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: Cohen may not have the widest range of any of this year’s nominees. However, he has always been a gifted character actor in the right circumstances, and the controversial funnyman was a clear standout in Chicago 7’s jam-packed ensemble cast. Stanfield was superb in Judas, but his co-star went him one better. (And if anything, Stanfield’s work was a leading performance. Not sure why he ended up here.)

And the Winner Is … Daniel Kaluuya. Next to Boseman, considered by almost all pundits to be the ‘surest thing’ of the night. Not difficult to work out why. In playing Fred Hampton, the incendiary leader of the Black Panthers movement, Kaluuya channelled a charisma and outrage that explained how a man of just 21 years of age could marshal such lasting and telling influence.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holiday

Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

Frances McDormand, Nomadland

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

Viola Davis in Netflix's "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom." Picture: David Lee/Netflix

Tell the seatwarmer to go home early: Doubtful there is a braver performance than Kirby’s listed here. Her portrayal of a young mother coping with an awful personal tragedy is punishing to witness. While this work has been widely nominated this season, it has barely picked up any wins. If there was an award for best acting in a dodgy movie, it would Day’s fiery display as ill-fated songbird Billie Holiday.

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: Davis has been maintaining peak form for the past decade (since her first Best Actress nom for The Help in 2011). Her role as the indestructible blues belter Ma Rainey could be her best work to date, which is really saying something. Whispers are getting stronger she can knock off Mulligan. McDormand was mesmerising in Nomadland, but is her last win here (for Three Billboards in 2018) too recent?

And the Winner Is … Carey Mulligan. Such a fearless, and often worrying portrait of deliberate self-sabotage has divided opinion both among the general public and awards voters. Mulligan’s work is definitely the strongest listed here. But is it ultimately too much for conventional tastes? It is going to be a very close call, and unfair if such clear artistic bravery goes unrewarded.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Best Performance by an Actress In a Supporting Role

Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Movie film

Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

Olivia Colman, The Father

Amanda Seyfried, Mank

Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

Take a selfie to remember the night by: Close was witheringly on-point as a tough redneck grandma, but the movie was way off the mark. If she does win, it is only to make up for her shock Best Actress loss for The Wife a few years back. Seyfried opened up a new side to her talent with a sharp, shrewd and vocally dexterous display in Mank. Just not enough love in the room for the movie as a whole.

South Korean actress Yuh-Jung Youn. Picture: AFP/Pancinema

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: Colman’s selfless work in The Father embodies the true ethos of a supporting actor. Anthony Hopkins’ acclaimed performance would have suffered without her incisive interplay. The complete unknown Bakalova is a fascinating case to consider. The Borat sequel’s pranky mock-doco format raises a very valid question as to whether this was ‘acting’ in the truest sense of the word.

And the Winner Is … Yuh-Jung Youn. Back home in South Korea, that scene-stealing grandma from Minari has been a big name for several decades. Minari came alive with great vitality whenever Youn was on-screen. On the strength of her BAFTAs win (in which she called the British population “very snobbish people), 73-year-old Youn is certain to give one of the best acceptance speeches of the night.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING

Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round

David Fincher, Mank

Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

US-Chinese director Chloe Zhao. Picture: AFP

Forget that speech you memorised: Hard to drill down into how Vinterberg made the cut here. Another Round is a fine enough film, but its direction was only a smidge north of telemovie quality. Fincher has been here twice before (Benjamin Button and The Social Network) and left empty-handed. Can’t see that trend being reversed here.

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: In any other year, Chung’s name would already be engraved on the statuette. His exacting vision for this passion project (based on his early life) is key to why this ‘little’ movie has drawn such a big following. Fennell’s nomination is a major achievement for a first-time filmmaker, but she is not making up the numbers. While her rivals sedately went about their business, Fennell’s movie was all impact, all the time.

And the Winner Is … Chloe Zhao. After toiling in indie obscurity for the past decade, 39-year-old Zhao stepped up to the big time without compromising her distinct style of natural filmmaking, or her attraction to small, yet vividly detailed stories. An almost-certain win will make Zhao only the second female victor in this category (after Kathryn Bigelow’s landmark breakthrough with The Hurt Locker).

BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR

The Father

Judas and the Black Messiah

Mank

Minari

Nomadland

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

The Trial of the Chicago 7

Daniel Kaluuya from Judas and the Black Messiah

The honour’s all yours, the spoils are all theirs: Put a line through Sound of Metal straight away. Subject matter (heavy metal drummer fighting hearing loss) just won’t connect with voters. Promising Young Woman too abrasive in tone. The Father too dominated by the one actor. Judas … too dull, too worthy (even for Oscars’ tastes!). Mank too old-fashioned.

Deserves To Win, But Won’t: These two movies have virtually no chance of beating Nomadland, but definitely would have gone close in other, weaker years. Chicago 7 is one of the best courtroom dramas of the past few decades, packed with great scenes, great speeches and fine ensemble acting. Minari is simply a lovingly crafted gem that gives off an inviting glow that few, if anyone, can fully resist.

Frances McDormand in the film Nomadland. Picture: Joshua James Richards/20th Century Studios

And the Winner Is … Nomadland. Of all the movies nominated in the most unconventional year in Oscars history, it is fitting that victory will go to the most unconventional contender. Filmed ‘on the spot’ with a cast that (with the exception of Frances McDormand) were mostly playing themselves, Nomadland’s open-ended tale of a new way of life being forged on the open road took it closer to perfection than all of its rivals. Destined to go down in history as the most modest, no-frills Best Picture winner ever.

OSCARS BEST OF THE REST

Best Screenplay – Original

And the Winner Is … Promising Young Woman. The key word here is ‘original’. Writer-director Emerald Fennell took audacious risks from start to finish (what about that ending?), all of which paid off.

Best Screenplay – Adapted

And the Winner Is … Nomadland. Those who read the nonfiction book of the same name were quick to spot how closely the movie stuck to its natural, uncrushed and unfailingly human vibes.

Best Cinematography

And the Winner Is … Nomadland. The entire movie was shot on location, in wildly fluctuating light conditions, and often at places chosen purely on impulse. A stunning visual achievement.

Best Animated Feature

And the Winner Is … Soul. Pixar productions are invariably the frontrunners in this category. Soul was not one of the studio’s classics, but a handful of song-driven sequences were mind-meltingly beautiful.

Best Documentary Feature

And the Winner Is … My Octopus Teacher. This deceptively involving and highly accessible marine life doco is well worth the look-see on Netflix if it has escaped your family’s attention so far.

Best Foreign Language Film: Another Round (Denmark)

Best Original Score: Soul

Best Original Song: Husavik from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga

Best Production Design: Mank

Best Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Sound: Sound of Metal

Best Visual Effects: Tenet

Best Film Editing: Sound of Metal

The Oscars will be aired on E! on Foxtel with the red carpet kicking off on Monday at 7am AEST. The ceremony will be aired by Seven at 10am AEST.