Your burning questions on Victoria’s road map answered
Could we have localised lockdowns of suburbs again? Can we ease restrictions earlier if we exceed targets? Why is the curfew continuing? Here are all your questions on Victoria’s COVID-19 road map answered.
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WHAT IS THE CRITICISM OF VICTORIA’S PLAN?
Victoria’s road map has been criticised, including by the Prime Minister, for being too cautious and setting tough, potentially impossible, targets — including no new cases for 14 days before all retail can reopen and eateries can have up to 50 patrons. Business groups have also slammed the plan for failing to strike the right balance between protecting health and keeping business alive, saying it was a “road to nowhere” with many forced to remained closed for weeks yet. The PM singled out NSW as a state that had managed to strike the right balance, arguing their comprehensive contact tracing had allowed businesses to reopen.
WHY HAS VICTORIA CHOSEN THIS?
Premier Daniel Andrews said the extended lockdown was needed to avoid a third wave. University of Melbourne and University of New England modelling found if restrictions were eased too early, there was a more than 60 per cent chance of another lockdown having to be imposed before Christmas. “I would like to open up much more quickly than we have but none of us have the luxury — none of us, not me, not any Victorian — of letting our frustration get the better of us … That’s not a recipe for anything other than a third wave,” Mr Andrews said.
DO ALL EXPERTS AGREE?
No, some questioned the modelling and plan to reopen, saying the tough targets in later stages would be difficult to meet. Deakin University epidemiology chairwoman Catherine Bennett questioned the assumptions that underpinned the modelling, while Doherty Institute director of epidemiology Jodie McVernon said the government had released “scant” detail on its data. Monash University research, based on China’s outbreak, suggested it was possible to trace and contain outbreaks if there were fewer than 30 active cases.
ARE WE PURSUING AN ELIMINATION STRATEGY RATHER THAN SUPPRESSION?
Mr Andrews and Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said Victoria was focused on “aggressive” suppression, not elimination. But top epidemiologists such as ANU Professor Peter Collignon have said the benchmarks set in the road map out of the lockdown, including fewer than five daily average cases for the “third step” and no new cases for 14 days to reach the “last step”, resembled elimination, which was “unattainable”.
IF CASE NUMBERS DROP, COULD RESTRICTIONS EASE EARLIER?
Prof Sutton said on Monday the September 28 date for Melbourne to reopen childcare and allow up to five people to meet outdoors was “locked in”, and would not be brought forward even if the target of 30-50 daily average cases was met earlier. But he said the dates for further easing — October 26 and November 23 — could be moved if those targets were reached earlier. “Everyone would welcome an earlier opening rather than a later one,” he said.
WHAT HAPPENS IF WE CAN’T GET 14 DAYS WITHOUT ANY CASES — THE THRESHOLD FOR LARGER PUBLIC GATHERINGS, MORE VISITORS AT HOME AND INDOOR DINING?
Prof Sutton described a fortnight of no new cases as “a feasible strategy” but, asked if Victoria could ease restrictions if there was one or two new cases a day, he said: “I think so.”
IS OUR CONTACT TRACING UP TO SCRATCH? HOW HAS NSW HANDLED IT DIFFERENTLY?
Victoria’s contact tracing system buckled in the state’s second wave when hundreds of new cases were recorded daily. Some businesses took the drastic step of carrying out their own contact tracing after significant delays in notifying and interviewing positive cases. In a shot at Victoria’s contact tracing scheme on Monday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison described NSW’s program as the “gold star”. He said Victoria needed to “build capacity” to contain outbreaks.
WHY IS THE CURFEW CONTINUING UNTIL AT LEAST OCTOBER 26?
It is unclear what medical evidence there is to support the curfew but Prof Sutton said it had “played its role to date” — suggesting it was used to send a strong message and help police enforce restrictions. “It has had a significant message about the serious position Victoria was in and, from a compliance point of view, the police have been able to focus their resources in areas where they need to,” he said.
MELBOURNE’S LOCKDOWN IS BEING EXTENDED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FORTNIGHT. WHY DID THE GOVERNMENT DECIDE ON A SIX-WEEK STAGE FOUR LOCKDOWN INITIALLY?
Prof Sutton conceded on Sunday the length of the six-week lockdown was “in some respect, guesswork”. He said it was hard to model how case numbers would fall under stage four restrictions, given there wasn’t “experience anywhere in the world of going through another wave” like Victoria’s.
WHAT ARE THE OTHER OPTIONS? COULD WE HAVE LOCALISED LOCKDOWNS OF SUBURBS AGAIN?
The government has ruled this out. Mr Andrews said on Monday localised lockdowns of postcodes “will not work” because police, nurses and other essential workers would still need to move in and out of restricted zones. “That means you’ve got movement and, therefore, you’ve potentially got the transmission of the virus,” he said.
MORE THAN 60 PER CENT OF VICTORIA’S ACTIVE COVID-19 CASES ARE LINKED TO AGED CARE OR HEALTHCARE. WILL THE GOVERNMENT CONSIDER A TARGETED “RING-FENCED APPROACH” TO THOSE SECTORS TO ALLOW THE ECONOMY TO REOPEN FASTER?
Essentially, no. Mr Andrews said on Monday there were already tight restrictions in aged care that meant staff had to wear heavy PPE and could not work at more than one facility. But he said staff in hospitals or aged care homes “all live in families … they go from one part of Melbourne to another” so it wasn’t easy to lock down those workers. “Community transmission is very difficult to just attribute and just lock down to one particular setting,” he said.
IF VICTORIA’S ROAD MAP TO RECOVER DOESN’T WORK, DOES THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAVE ANY POWERS TO INTERVENE?
No. Although some business groups have called for the PM to intervene to help save jobs, the Federal Government can only offer support and assistance to Victoria. Mr Morrison said: “The legal authority for all of these matters, of course, rests with the Victorian government. It’s not for the Commonwealth government, we do not have that authority to step in and tell the Victorian government they have to follow another plan. That is not how Australia’s federation works.”