Why Wednesdays are recording the highest weekly coronavirus case rate in Victoria
On Wednesdays we’ve been seeing spikes in daily coronavirus case numbers in Victoria. Is this a coincidence or worrying trend which may ruin our chances of lifting lockdown on September 28?
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Wednesdays are the day of the week we’ve been seeing spikes in daily coronavirus case numbers in Victoria.
But is this a strange coincidence or a worrying trend that will thwart our efforts to keep daily average case numbers low to ease restrictions on September 28?
The state’s largest ever daily case number of 725 was recorded on Wednesday August 5 and today’s 76 cases is the largest figure of the week so far.
Cases so far this week, with 76, last week with 110, and in the last week of August, with 111, also peaked on Wednesday.
For Victorian restrictions to ease on September 28, we need to reach an average of 30 to 50 cases per day over a 14 day period.
As of Wednesday, an average of 84 daily cases has been recorded in the last fortnight and 72 in the last week.
An analysis of Department of Health and Human Services data found since May 31, more Victorians were likely being tested on Mondays or Wednesdays — to receive their results on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday or Saturday.
In June, the highest coronavirus case numbers were recorded on Saturdays.
On Monday, the Herald Sun reported more people were getting tested midweek so they could enjoy their weekends.
Dr Mukesh Haikerwal, former AMA chair and Altona North GP, has been testing patients at his GP-led COVID-19 site since April and hasn’t been able to test on weekends due to a lack of state government support.
“We haven’t been able to provide weekend testing, as until recently we couldn’t provide staff to penalty rates,” Dr Haikerwal said.
This weekend will be the first time testing will be done at Altona North Respiratory Clinic, now the clinic is being supported by state government funding.
Dr Haikerwal said many patients were being tested on Mondays and Fridays.
“The trend is we are seeing (testing numbers) dropping and that means we haven’t got a good idea of what’s happening in the community,” he said.
Deakin University epidemiology chair Prof Catherine Bennett said a number of factors contributed to Wednesday recording the highest daily case numbers.
One thing to consider was the quicker turnaround of test results compared to two months ago.
“When some labs were given results, for example in August, people were receiving their results the next day or that afternoon,” she said.
“Testing is quicker today, with 88 per cent of test results back in the same day.”
Prof Bennett said there may also be a lag in confirmed positive cases — meaning positive cases aren’t necessarily reported the same day they were found.
“As a general trend, if the numbers are going down it suggests less people have symptoms, and that’s a good sign,” Prof Bennett said.
In Victoria people have been told to get tested for coronavirus only if they show symptoms.
While the daily average case number is currently hovering around 70, Prof Bennett didn’t think Wednesdays high numbers would ruin our chances of easing restrictions on September 28.
“If things stay the same and if the rate drops, then we are looking good,” she said.
“I’m hoping we will be under the 50 mark by next weekend and we’ll need to hold that average for the next two weeks.”
Associate Professor Rhonda Stuart, of Monash Health Director of Infection Prevention, said we shouldn’t be concerned about a weekday spike in cases impacting the average case numbers.
“I don’t think Saturday or Wednesday makes a difference on where we are going, as those cases will be reported anyway,” she said.
“We really need to look at the average number of cases.”
Prof Bennett said fewer Victorians getting tested created an illusion that things were under control.
“The risk is by keeping testing low, it’ll more likely generate what look like mystery cases. “Mystery cases could climb with less testing,” she said.
Prof Bennett said there was a greater chance of restrictions easing if the number of mystery cases were low or zero.
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