Why Victoria should brace for 40 deaths a day
We’ve already had a record “deadliest day” three times in the past week, but things are going to get worse before they get better. COVID-19 could soon be killing up to 40 Victorians a day.
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It’s going to get worse before it gets better.
That’s the advice we’re being given by those in the COVID-19 know.
Yes, the daily case numbers are decreasing but the number of deaths seems to be increasing.
We’ve had a record “deadliest day” three times in the past week, and two consecutive days of 19 fatalities on Monday and Tuesday.
But trends would suggest that once it does hit the so-called “peak”, we really will see things start to improve.
Dr Michael Gantier, a researcher in immunity at the Hudson Institute of Medical Research in Melbourne, has been working on establishing a clinical trial for COVID-19 patients in Europe.
He’s been following the virus’ trends around the world and says Australia, like other countries, will see deaths continue to rise before hopefully, cases and fatalities both dip.
He said most people infected by COVID-19 become seriously ill about 10 days after contracting the virus, with those serious cases succumbing to the disease around day 18 or 19.
This is then reflected in the daily numbers, with fatalities continuing to rise in the weeks following higher-number days.
“Generally, when we hear the numbers from the Victorian Government each day the ballpark estimate is that those people were tested a few days before,” Dr Gantier said.
“And then you can really assume that you’ve got about 14 days after they’re announced to seeing those people dying.”
He said it was “fair to assume” cases would continue to rise “to about 40 deaths a day, for a few days,” given the high number of cases in recent weeks.
“I was checking the dates where we saw 700 cases last week — and it’s fair to say probably in the next seven days we’ll likely see more deaths (because of this),” he said.
And while it might still be a tough road ahead, there’s hope that we’re starting to see the overall outlook improve.
This is being further aided by the use of masks and stay-home restrictions coming into play.
“I’m very hopeful that the numbers are already going down and I think we just have to be resilient,” Dr Gantier said.
“It will pay off at the end and we have the capacity to get to a very, very low number of patients.”
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