Why the coronavirus targets Melbourne needs to meet before reopening may be eased
On the same day police clashed with anti-lockdown protesters across Melbourne, the Premier made a significant concession about the threshold set to lift stage four restrictions.
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The threshold for reopening Melbourne may be eased amid mounting concerns the Andrews Government’s COVID-19 targets are too cautious and unreasonable.
Premier Daniel Andrews on Saturday conceded the expectation for Melbourne to drop below five coronavirus cases per day before he lifts stage four restrictions may be scrapped or watered down.
Although Victoria’s Chief Health Officer Prof Brett Sutton said the target was “within our grasp”, he also warned a decision may have to be made to reopen the city before all community transmissions were eliminated.
The concessions came after one of the experts whose research was used by the government to justify the continued stage four lockdown said the target of fewer than five daily cases was too tough.
As revealed by the Herald Sun on Saturday, University of Melbourne professorial fellow in epidemiology Tony Blakely - who co-authored modelling Premier Daniel Andrews relied on to extend the lockdown - said the target to release Melbourne from stage four lockdown is “too stringent”.
The road map released by Mr Andrews last Sunday demands an average of fewer than five daily coronavirus cases across two weeks, and a maximum of five mystery cases in 14 days, before curfews and stay-at-home orders are dropped.
Victoria is on track to meet the average of fewer than five daily cases by October 26, but Prof Blakely said he would have aimed on an average of 10 cases a day, which would have slightly increased the risk of a third wave from three per cent to 10 per cent.
Metropolitan Melbourne’s 14-day coronavirus daily case average has dropped to 61.6 on Saturday, while regional Victoria’s hit 4.3.
On Saturday Mr Andrews said his public health team recommended the target, which he and his cabinet endorsed.
However, the Premier appeared to step away from the s trict target as well as his reliance on modelling, saying the targets were being constantly reviewed as real-time information flowed in.
“This is not an academic exercise, this is life, it is real and we have to lock in some settings and then push to achieve those targets,” Mr Andrews said.
“On the issue of the achievability or otherwise, we look at putting the data in every single day, we keep running the models we will see how things unfold day-to-day, week-to-week and we will use common sense.
“If it became clear that the tale of the second wave was more stubborn than even the most rigorous modelling tells us, then of course we would look at that.
“We have at no point said these are stone tablets and can never be changed.”
Speaking after Prof Blakely’s comments, Prof Sutton said the targets demanded under the Government’s road map were meant as a “general movements in those directions” and “some very strong indicative numbers” to give the public an idea of what was required.
He said further revisions of the modelling driving the targets was occurring daily
“We are at a point now where we are at 30-odd cases a day, so it is within our grasp,” Prof Sutton said.
“We will be realistic about how it is tracking. We won’t just say ‘the modelling tells us this and we will move at this point’.
“If we get to the point where it is clear that it is not possible to get to no community transmission we will make a call on that.
“And, it is also possible, that we will get to a point where the numbers are higher but we will investigate those numbers, see where they are occurring, why they are occurring and how they are occurring and make a judgment about whether five is the appropriate target or if it is 10 cases a day but eight of them are in aged care.”
Prof Sutton said the University of Melbourne modelling was a significant and “core” element to deciding Victoria’s way out of COVID-19 lockdown, however it was only one of several factors used in the formation of policies.
“There have been lots of other inputs and of course it has been experience of watching the numbers,” Prof Sutton said.
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