Why calls are growing for harsher restrictions in Victoria
As health authorities anxiously try to stem the rising tide of coronavirus, a epidemiology expert shares his theory that COVID-19’s return in Victoria may actually be three separate waves that give the appearance of a bigger outbreak.
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Like a sailor rescuing a leaky boat, health authorities are desperately racing to plug holes in Victoria’s coronavirus restrictions before the state takes on too much water.
As each new hole appears, decision makers must face a nervous wait to see if their latest solution will do the trick or if infection levels will keep on rising.
The situation has led to constant back and forth, with opinion divided over whether the government’s remedies are enough to keep the ship afloat or if harsher stage four lockdowns are needed despite the massive damage they will do to the economy.
Locked down for more three weeks, the 10 hotspot postcodes that were first isolated at the start of the second wave are a vital test case for whether movement restrictions have worked.
But aHerald Sunanalysis of case numbers within the local government areas that cover these postcodes show infections continue to rise.
In Brimbank, Maribyrnong, Whittlesea and Hume, confirmed cases first grew at a steady rate and have risen sharply over the past two weeks.
University of Melbourne epidemiology expert Professor Tony Blakely said these numbers could be deceiving.
He said the story of COVID-19’s return in Victoria was actually made up of three separate waves that give the appearance of a bigger outbreak. “It is my strong suspicion that we’ve had three epidemics in succession,” he said.
“There were the first postcodes smacked into lockdown, the rest of us in Melbourne and Mitchell Shire and then essential workers.
“Because they’ve happened so close together it looks like a tabletop mountain when in reality we’ve had three humps right after one another.”
Prof Blakely said essential workers had been the missing piece of the puzzle because they’d continued to move around while other Victorians were at home.
“If you have a cleaning gang of say six people, they’re potentially moving the virus between two rest homes and fanning out across the city,” he said. “That’s why I applaud some of the measures put in place this week.
“By offering payment support, restricting movement between workplaces and providing masks we’ve moved into an enhanced stage three lockdown rather than something harsher. If we do go to stage four the economic harms are much bigger because it's a real lockdown.
“The only reason to do so would be because we don’t have the intensive care capacity or because there was a political motivation for an elimination strategy.
“Neither of those exist at the present time.”
Prof Blakely said he was optimistic the “enhanced lockdown” would result in improved numbers once they took effect.
“I really find it hard to believe that mask wearing is not going to have an effect when combined with those other changes … that should really give it a kick in the pants,” he said.
Although Premier Daniel Andrews has regularly flagged harsher restrictions were inevitable if numbers continued to rise, its understood leaders within the government are desperate to avoid a stage four lockdown.
But, as more people are admitted into intensive care, medical professionals upped the ante as they push for harsher rules.
Australian Medical Association leaders have warned Victorians hospitals will need to house 700 new COVID-19 patients a week unless a tougher lockdown is imposed now.
Federal AMA president Tony Bartone told the Herald Sun “this is bloody serious, we need a circuit breaker”.
He called for tougher stage four restrictions that would prevent anyone bar essential workers leaving home except for food and medicine, with staff under pressure to man beds because more than 300 Victorian health workers are in isolation.
“People are already doing back-to-back shifts, this is a real weak point in the system.,” Dr Bartone said.
But AMA Victoria president Julian Rait said the state hospital system had enough ICU beds to cope as long as the infection rate remained below 1750 cases a day.
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