Why Australia could adopt New Zealand’s ‘bubbles’ system as COVID lockdown exit strategy
Seeing your family in person may be possible for Victorians if the state government adopts New Zealand’s ‘bubble’ system as a way to exit lockdown. Experts believe these other systems may be worth considering.
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Victorians may see their family in the next stage of restrictions if the state government considers using New Zealand’s ‘bubbles’ or Denmark’s ‘traffic lights’ system as part of its lockdown exit strategy, experts say.
Under the traffic light system, areas or regions are given a colour ‘red, amber or green’ to reflect the rate of coronavirus infection and lockdown restrictions.
The state government is planning to use the same traffic light system to reopen Victorian industries by denoting varying levels of restrictions.
Plans to see the system rolled out nationwide is also in the works, with the Sunday Herald Sun reporting Danish officials had recently briefed the federal government on the system.
New Zealand’s bubble system, which was used in the country’s level 4 and 3 lockdowns, lets you interact with people only in your household or extended family.
The bubble system is being considered for Victoria workplaces to ensure there’s no overlap of people in the office at one time.
While health experts are supportive of both systems, they have highlighted some problems we may see if rolled out in Victoria.
WHAT IS THE TRAFFIC LIGHT SYSTEM?
A region is labelled a traffic light colour — red, amber, yellow — reflecting whether its open, open with restrictions or closed.
In Denmark, yellow means: low-level community transmission (fewer than 20 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over a week). Businesses remain open, travel is allowed. There’s no need to quarantine if visiting different yellow zones.
Amber means rising community transmissions (more than 30 people per 100,000 inhabitants contract COVID-19 in a week), some travel restrictions and lockdown. Citizens who enter or leave the area need to quarantine.
Red means heavy lockdown restrictions to stop the high spread of community transmission. The region is locked-down and travelling is banned.
On Friday, Prime Minister Scott Morrison praised the Danish model.
“I’m not suggesting this is precisely what we do in Australia but … they have clear metrics,” he said.
“I think that’s quite a sensible approach.”
WHAT IS THE BUBBLE SYSTEM?
New Zealand adopted the bubble system under level 4 and 3 lockdown.
Other countries across the globe have also adopted this practice, including the United Kingdom.
Your bubble is made up of a group of people you have physical contact with and don’t need to social distance.
Each bubble is considered one household, meaning members of your bubble can stay over at your home.
Bubbles must be ‘exclusive’ and once you have chosen the people in your bubble, you cannot switch or start another with a different household.
In New Zealand under level 4 your bubble only includes those in your nuclear family.
Under level 3 restrictions, this extends to close family, caregivers or to support isolated people.
New Zealand’s bubbles don’t have specific size limits, but are encouraged to remain small and local.
You can exclude people already in your bubble at any time if you feel like they are a risk.
New Zealand doesn’t use the bubble system for levels 2.5 and below.
University of Auckland epidemiology senior lecturer Dr Simon Thornley said the city had on Monday entered level 2.5 — which allows visiting a cafe, seeing friends and family and working from the office.
WILL THESE SYSTEMS WORK IN VICTORIA?
Deakin University’s epidemiology chair Professor Catherine Bennett said Victoria could adopt either the bubbles or traffic light systems — but said clear messaging around how each would work was needed.
“There needs to be a way of managing it, and it needs to be communicated so it makes sense in everyone’s head,” she said.
Prof Bennett said the bubble system would be self-regulated, as there was no way to police it, and relied on people understanding why they had limited their close contacts.
The traffic light system may work better in the regions than city, Prof Bennett said.
“I think that only works in regional Victoria or if they are opening up the state borders, as once you get within cities the traffic light system is problematic,” she said.
“They may consider introducing this to LGAs, but if Hume is in lockdown then people (in nearby suburbs) will just travel to Boroondara to get a coffee instead … and this may further spread the virus.”
Prof Bennett said the bubble system may work better outside of the home.
“Before we entered stage 4, Geelong had a week or so of stopping gatherings in the home, but allowed people to meet in public spaces such as cafes, and this seemed to work really well,” she said.
“Perhaps the bubble could allow us to see people outside of our household where they meet in a cafe or park instead.”
University of Auckland’s Dr Thornley said under New Zealand’s level 3 restrictions there was no limit on extended family you could include in your bubble.
Prof Bennett said there were some downfalls to this system.
“If you allow each person in a share house to see five close contacts in the home, you could see a situation of 20 other people invited to a home,” she said.
In the United Kingdom, there are rules which limit the number of people share homes can include in their bubble.
In Monday’s press conference, Premier Daniel Andrews flagged large family gatherings would likely still be some way off.
But he said he hoped families could be together at Christmas.
“We had a very different Mother's Day. No one was happy about that. We’re going to have a very different Fathers Day.
“I want to make sure that we can have a Christmas Day that’s as close to normal as possible.
“If we do this too quick, if we do this chasing something that might be popular for a few weeks … well then Christmas won’t look normal at all.”
University of Auckland’s Dr Thornley said Victoria’s restrictions were quite tough compared to New Zealand.
“Compared to Victoria it sounds like New Zealand had softer rules. Masks are encouraged, not mandatory here, except on public transport,” Dr Thornley said.
“We don’t have a curfew and never have had a curfew or limits on physical activity outside.”
“Those restrictions are peculiar and it seems there’s a much stronger police presence.”
Dr Thornley said prolonged lockdowns weren’t sustainable and there needed to be other alternatives to controlling the virus, rather than closing down industries.
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