What happens if Victoria’s hospitals are overrun with Covid patients

A flood of Covid cases will lead to a rise in preventable deaths if Victoria’s hospital system becomes overwhelmed, a new report warns.

Emergency doctors are fearing a rise in cancer and cardiac deaths if Victoria’s hospital system is soon overrun with Covid-19 cases.

Without vastly improved monitoring of emergency presentations and deaths, researchers warn the impact flowing through all areas of the health system – including intensive care – will be far greater than scenarios presented in modelling governments are basing their reopening road maps on.

In a new paper Melbourne emergency doctors and researchers from Monash University flag concerns a flood of cases following the end of lockdowns combined with staff shortages will see the ambulance and hospital emergency system quickly overrun.

Because the Doherty Institute modelling only focuses on ventilation in ICU and deaths in the next six months – but fails to account for a predicted demand on the emergency care system – the team led by Monash’s Dr Rob Mitchell believes the wider impact on other severe conditions has been overlooked.

There are concerns Victoria’s ambulance and hospital emergency system could quickly become overrun. Picture: David Caird

“If the health system becomes overwhelmed, the number of preventable deaths may increase dramatically,” the authors wrote.

“Cancer deaths will go up. Cardiac arrest survival will go down. Patients requiring a high level of support for respiratory or cardiovascular disease will not receive treatment quickly.

“Cross infections will occur between patients because of inadequate clinical spaces, and overburdened staff may not have capacity to ensure optimal infection control.”

Senior intensive care physicians have also told the Herald Sun of concerns the wider impacts of allowing high numbers of critically ill Covid patients have not been fully appreciated.

Covid patients currently spend an average of 16 days in ICU, compared to just three days for those with other life-threatening conditions, such as recovering from cardiac or cancer surgery.

Therefore, if the hospital system reaches a critical mass of Covid patients the number left untreated or even dying from other serious conditions may multiply.

When Victoria’s Covid restrictions were eased in April-June 2021 hospital emergency departments were flooded with an extra 122,148 patients than they saw a year earlier.

If the hospital system reaches a critical mass of Covid patients the number left untreated or even dying from other serious conditions may multiply. Picture: David Caird

In their analysis inEmergency Medicine Australasia, Dr Mitchell and colleagues Peter Cameron, Gerard O’Reilly and Biswadav Mitra said the reopening of Australia after reaching 70 and 80 per cent vaccination was likely to see a much greater surge in cases.

They warned that death rates must be monitored and interpreted closely so the health system can react to any trends.

They called for a national registry tracking emergency demand and outcomes to provide a real time indication of where pressure was building, and where help was needed – similar to surveillance that already occurs in ICU.

It was also critical to measure the delays to care in high-risk groups such as patients with stroke, trauma and coronary syndromes to determine if they were slipping though the cracks caused by Covid, the doctors wrote.

It comes as a survey of more than 1000 essential workers has revealed that 30 per cent of emergency services employees and 20 per cent in healthcare are considering changing their job because of the pandemic.

In Victoria, 79 per cent of all essential workers – including in health, emergency services and education – say they are finding it harder to cope with the pandemic this year than last. This is the highest number in Australia.

The survey was conducted by independent research company Insightfully in mid-September for Hiver, a new essential workers’ digital bank.

Carolyn Murphy, of Hiver, said: “The people who face-up to the very personal impacts of COVID-19 on a daily basis are telling us they are nearing breaking point.”

At Friday’s national cabinet meeting, the national medical expert panel will unveil its recommendation to make the Covid-19 jab mandatory for all healthcare workers.

Under Victorian rules, healthcare workers are already required to have had at least one dose by October 15, and to be fully vaccinated by December 15.