What does eliminating coronavirus mean for Victoria?

The state will have eliminated coronavirus if no new cases are announced on Friday — but experts say Victorians should still be wary.

Victoria will have eliminated coronavirus from the community, if the state continues to record zero new cases from now until Friday.

The state marked its first ‘triple’ doughnut day on Tuesday, of zero new and active cases, and no deaths.

It’s the first time since February 29 — 269 days ago — that Victoria hasn’t had a single active case, and comes after 27 consecutive days of zero infections.

Epidemiologists define elimination of coronavirus as 28 days without new or mystery cases in the community.

Doherty Institute Director Professor Sharon Lewin said if we reach that mark the virus has effectively been eliminated from the community.

“When we talk about coronavirus cases, there’s imported cases in quarantine or community transmission,” Prof Lewin said.

“We have had no international arrivals for a number of months and no imported cases, so any new case is a result of community transmission. As there’s been no new cases for almost 28 days, it effectively means we have eliminated community transmission.”

International arrivals will undoubtedly reintroduce coronavirus to Victoria, Prof Sharon Lewin says. Picture: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images.

Epidemiologists wait two 14-day incubation periods — or 28 days — to confirm eradication.

“An incubation period is recorded from the time of being exposed and then becoming symptomatic or testing positive for the virus,” Prof Lewin said.

“If you have no new cases for two incubation periods, that meets the definition.”

Prof Lewin said it was very unlikely the virus could be circulating in the community undetected for weeks.

“People think it can circulate for weeks unnoticed — but of those infected, only 20 per cent are asymptomatic and 80 per cent have symptoms, so they’ll get tested and only 20 per cent get sick enough to go to hospital.”

“It’s impossible for it to just be circulating for weeks undetected.”

Prof Lewin said while it was promising states like Queensland, Western Australia, Tasmania and Northern Territory had eradicated COVID-19, Australia could never really achieve the same milestone.

“We will not have eradication forever, we will get intermittent clusters and that’s up to every state to jump on and snuff out,” Prof Lewin said.

“The reason why we have those clusters is because international travellers will eventually come. Even though they’ll be in quarantine, we know these things are never perfect.”

Prof Lewin said Victorians should continue enjoying their new-found freedoms, but err on the side of caution.

Victorians should continue to enjoy their new-found freedoms without fear, Prof Sharon Lewin says. Picture: NCA NewsWire /David Geraghty.

“I think we should be living as the government has said, and that’s COVID normal,” she said.

“We are very much back to normal but should still hold an awareness that COVID could be reintroduced at any time.”

“That’s why people should continue to get tested, not go to work when sick and physical distance when they can.”

“We shouldn’t be nervous about going and it’s absolutely fine to not wear masks outside.”