Tracking the COVID triggers: When lockdown will really end
How much longer will Melbourne be stuck in one of the world’s toughest lockdowns? These graphs, updated daily, track how close the city is to hitting key targets for a return to a more normal life.
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Victoria’s coronavirus case numbers are heading in the right direction with the crucial 14-day average in Melbourne dipping to 29.4 on Wednesday— down from 32.8 on Tuesday and 34.4 on Monday.
If that figure stays between 30 and 50 it will trigger the easing of some of the city’s restrictions on September 28.
That includes greater opportunities for socialising outdoors with up to five people from up to two separate households, and the reopening of childcare.
The rolling 14-day average is one of the key measurements which will determine the length of the city’s lockdown.
Graphics that track case numbers and key data against state government targets for opening up - created by covid19data.com.au (see below) - reveal how the city is faring day by day.
According to the state government’s roadmap for reopening it must fall below five statewide by October 26 to allow Melbourne to move to the ‘third step’.
That’s the date retail stores and hairdressers can reopen, as well as pubs, restaurants and cafes with predominantly outdoor service.
Data shows the metro 14-day average has been on a steep decline for more than six weeks.
From a peak of 430.6 on August 7 it dipped below 100 for the first time on September 4 when it hit 99.9.
It was sub-50 for the first time last Wednesday, September 16, when it reached 49.6 before falling to 32.8 on Tuesday.
Regional Victoria’s rolling average, meanwhile, has been far lower.
It peaked at 31.3 on August 12 and dropped below 5 on September 9, before remaining steady at 1.6 on Monday and Tuesday.
Testing rates have fallen slightly but remain above 12,000 a day.
Authorities have repeatedly said they want testing numbers to remain high so they can be confident they know how much virus is in the community.
One other piece of data that will be important to metro Melbourne reopening is the number of mystery cases.
They must be five or under for the previous 14 days to reach target for the October 26 restriction easing.
There were two mystery cases on Tuesday.
Premier Daniel Andrews said on Tuesday Melbourne was “absolutely on track” to move to the next step on Sunday September 28.
“We will be able to take some steps — albeit cautious steps — on Sunday,” he said.
“To be at 32.8 now with several days to go, is a testament to the hard work and the commitment of every Victorian who is following the rules.”
HOW MELBOURNE IS TRACKING
* The graphs in this article were created at www.covid19data.com.au by volunteers. To donate and support their work click here
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