Top scientist says Victoria’s contact tracing system can cope with reopening
After a trip to NSW to check out their coronavirus response, the country’s top scientist says Victoria’s once-overwhelmed contact tracing system is capable of handling the falling caseload as the city reopens.
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Victoria’s problem-plagued contact tracing system should be able to keep up with the falling coronavirus caseload as Melbourne reopens, according to Chief Scientist Alan Finkel.
Dr Finkel, who led a delegation of Victorian officials to New South Wales to study their system earlier this month, said Victoria’s system was “significantly more capable” now than when it was “overwhelmed” at the start of the deadly second wave.
He told the ABC last week that while it was “not where we want it to be” yet, he was “much more comfortable” with a process that was being digitised from test results to alerting close contacts.
“The improved system should be able to cope to keep us at low levels even if we come out of lockdown,” Dr Finkel said.
After Daniel Andrews eased restrictions on Sunday, the federal government said it was “important that more be done in the weeks ahead” and called on Victoria to review its triggers for future stages.
“We note that at similar case levels NSW was fundamentally open while remaining COVID-safe due to a world class contact tracing facility,” Scott Morrison said in a joint statement with Health Minister Greg Hunt and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.
Victoria recorded five new cases on Monday, three which were linked to aged care and two to health services.
It left the state with 359 active cases and a rolling 14-day average in Melbourne of 20.3, which must drop below five a day for the state to move to the next stage of restrictions.
A Herald Sun analysis shows that by comparison, NSW had 419 active cases on May 15 and a rolling two-week average of 2.7 when it allowed five visitors to households and 10 people inside cafes and restaurants.
By June 1 — when regional travel was allowed, 50 people could dine at venues and beauty salons reopened — NSW had 363 active cases after a 14-day average of 1.3.
That was at the end of the state’s first wave, and it has since been able to remain open even as daily case numbers regularly reached double digits, particularly during July and August.
Deakin University epidemiology chair Professor Catherine Bennett said NSW had managed to control the spread of the virus and remain open by leaning on its “follow, chase” tracing system.
Prof Bennett encouraged the Victorian government to use its new model created by the Burnet Institute to chart how removing restrictions would affect case numbers.
“Our old modelling was very conservative,” she said.
“We need to revisit the thresholds … Using the modelling will also help the government, if they use it well and communicate it well, help people understand what our level of risk is.”
Prof Bennett said Victoria was now “suppressing risk of transmission, not actual virus” and if mystery cases remained below 10 per cent, there was no reason for Melbourne to remain under such tight measures.
CLOSED – VICTORIA YESTERDAY
359 ACTIVE CASES
20.3 14-DAY AVERAGE*
OPENED – NSW JUNE 1
363 ACTIVE CASES
1.3 14-DAY AVERAGE
* Melbourne’s rolling average
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