The Melbourne Covid lockdown rules experts say should be lifted

Picnics should be allowed and the curfew lifted, with epidemiologists revealing which freedoms are safe to allow next week.

Premier Daniel Andrews has promised a very minor easing of Melbourne’s lockdown, including an extension of the travel limit and an extra hour of exercise, when the state hits the 70 per cent single-dose milestone – projected to be Friday.

Deakin University’s chair of epidemiology Catherine Bennett, Associate Professor Nathan Grills, a public health physician at Melbourne University, and Monash University infectious disease modeller Dr Michael Lydeamore have weighed in on what more could be eased safely.

What other restrictions could be safely eased when 70 per cent of Victorians are single-dosed?

CB: The safest area to relax rules is in outdoor activities. Some time outdoors on your own or with your own household should be allowed whether exercising or not. Walking to a local park and sitting for a while when away from others is less risky than strolling to the local shop and queuing for a coffee. Other safe activities, such as golf, could be considered where facilities are not open and people only play solo or with others from their own household. The wearing of masks outdoors when away from others could also be relaxed.

NG: Cases of outdoor spread remain rare and now that zero Covid is not the aim we can accept the small residual risk. Outdoor exercise equipment, including basketball rings, skate parks and bike tracks, needs to opened as flagged. In ED, where I work, I see a disproportionate number of teenagers who are doing it really tough. They need a healthy outdoor outlet and sport is one of those areas. Restricting outdoor exercise times is not enforceable and its time to downgrade time limit to “advisory”. After 18 months of severe restrictions people are doing it tough. If a parent wants to go for a walk with each of their kids, walk with a struggling friend and then run 10km, then go for it.

ML: Single dose coverage is better than no coverage, but the efficacy of the vaccines is a lot lower. Restrictions will have to be eased slowly … perhaps lower risk activities, like outdoor gatherings for small groups, could be lifted, but a “better safe than sorry” approach seems very justified.

An expert says outdoor exercise equipment, such as skate parks and bike tracks, needs to opened as flagged. Picture: Sarah Matray

Should the curfew be lifted?

CB: Being out after 9pm for activities within the public health rules is arguably safer than at other more crowded times – whether that’s grocery shopping or exercising. The curfew is a rule put in place to stop people breaking other rules. We need to see evidence that this actually works. Are we seeing fewer illegal gatherings than pre-curfew? If not, the curfew should be lifted.

NG: Yes, it should have been lifted already. There is little evidence of its effectiveness when other stage 4 restrictions are in place. In my view it’s counter-productive and increases people density in supermarkets, which is what we are trying to avoid.

ML: It’s hard to say how effective curfew has been directly. It’s really more about the change in people’s behaviour associated with the curfew.

Experts say we need evidence to show that curfews are effective. Picture: Josie Hayden

Could restaurants or cafes reopen, with density limits, to fully vaccinated diners?

CB: Once case numbers begin to stabilise in Melbourne, outdoor dining might be considered a safe enough option for the fully vaccinated, given infection rates are likely to be between three and five times lower in this group. The choice isn’t “vaccinated or everyone”, it is “vaccinated or no one”.

NG: Probably wait a couple more weeks. We need a system that allows easy checking of vaccine status and accounts for those who can’t be vaccinated. And when we do open, we need strict 1 in 4 square metre rule inside when seated. But we can maximise use of outdoor eating spaces.

ML: At 70 per cent single coverage, probably not safely, unless the density limit is small. We’ve seen some criticism from these businesses in NSW, where the density limit is so tight that it is difficult to operate an effective business. It doesn’t seem like Victoria is in a place right now to talk about differences between fully vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. It would be difficult with staff, as well, many of whom haven’t had access to vaccines for very long.

Could Melburnians safely gather for outdoor picnics on AFL grand final day (Sep 25)? How many people could be allowed?

CB: Fully vaccinated people could be allowed to meet people from another household outdoors by grand final day as we could be approaching 50 per cent fully vaccinated and 80 per cent with one dose. The most important thing to an epidemiologist is not the number of people, but the number of households. Two families of four is a far safer gathering than five people from separate households.

NG: Allowing five per outdoor gathering plus minors under two-years-old is low risk. One of the reasons why Covid and the flu are seasonal is that people are outside more and most transmission happens in closed spaces. So why keep people confined to closed spaces in spring? The current arrangement that allows us to catch up outside with people to exercise discriminates against people who can’t exercise. They should also be allowed to go to the park and sit and have a picnic with a friend even if they can’t “exercise”.

ML: A small group would probably be OK, but it is difficult to define a “small group”, let alone enforce it. It’s not ideal for anyone, but better to stay with our households for grand final day.

The most important thing to an epidemiologist is not the number of people gathering, but the number of households. Picture: Getty Images

Should all Melbourne school students return to classroom learning at the start of term 4?

CB: It’s unlikely schools will return completely at the start of next term given current case numbers and the need to prepare school campuses and management of classes to make schools safer. We can reduce the risk with better ventilation and air filtering, density limits in classrooms and using campus spaces differently, both indoor and out. This will take time to organise, but some return to campus in term 4 should be possible for at least some classes.

NG: Yes, but it depends where case numbers are at by then. The question becomes can we afford not to? The cost of not returning is adding up and the burden is unequally spread. Quality homeschooling is a luxury item. It’s easier with financial resources, more than eight smart screens in the house, one room each, one parent not working, linked to excellent private schools etc. Minimise density through staggered breaks or start times, one week on, one week off (remote) for 50 per cent at a time. Masks for over 12s. And vaccines should be quickly rolled out at schools as we do with other immunisations.

ML: Face-to-face learning is very important for both children and their parents. Transmission and severity of Covid is much less in young people, even with the Delta variant, and so schools seem like a good candidate to return. Difficult to say when exactly, and it would have to come with restrictions on adults gathering inside and outside the school.